Flash Flood Warning 37, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
109 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

LOCALIZED...VERY DANGEROUS FLOODING SITUATION CONTINUES ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF SPRINGFIELD. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 4 TO 8 INCHES
OF RAINFALL IN THIS AREA...WITH ONE MEASURED REPORT (7 SOUTH OF
SPRINGFIELD) OF IN EXCESS OF 9 INCHES OF RAINFALL. ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER BARRY AND STONE COUNTIES
WILL MOVE INTO THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

AS EXPECTED...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS ALONG A NORTH TO SOUTH ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI IS UNSTABLE AND WILL SUPPORT A
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF
DOLLARS AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES OUT OF KS/OK AND INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA.

WITH A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A
RISK AND WILL UPDATE THE HWO ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS SHIFTED INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI EARLY THIS
MORNING AFTER MAKING THE TURN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BEST INSTABILITY
IS OVER WESTERN MISSOURI/EASTERN KANSAS WITH CORFIDI VECTORS
POINTING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND MAY NEED TO BUMP UP POPS FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS IN CENTRAL MO. SCATTERED SHOWERY ACTIVITY TRYING TO
GET GOING OVER OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOW LEVEL
JET STREAK.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES/AMOUNTS
THROUGH MONDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES
MOVE INTO AN ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

EXPECTING SOME MORNING CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHWARD
MOVING MCS FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI. WILL NEED TO PAY CLOSE
ATTENTION TO WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ENDS UP TODAY AS IT WILL
LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
AS WILL A SLOWLY EASTWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. BEST FOCUS FOR ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WILL BE WITH BETTER SHEAR WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. FORECAST
SHEAR LOOKS TO BE A BIT WEAKER FURTHER SOUTH AND PRIMARY SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER NORTHERN CWA TODAY.

NIGHTTIME CONVECTION WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG SURFACE
BOUNDARY AFFECTING MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

ADDITIONAL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH THE MAIN WAVE KICKING THROUGH WITH THE MONDAY SYSTEM.
EACH OF THESES WAVES COULD BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE
AREA...WITH PW VALUES OF 1.25 TO 1.7 INCHES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONTINUOUS WITH SOME BREAKS EXPECTED IN
BETWEEN EACH OF THE SHORTWAVES. HOWEVER...CURRENT FORECAST OF
ROUGHLY 0.75 TO 1.3 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS EXPECTED COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING WITH ALL OF THE RAINFALL WE RECEIVED DURING THE SPRING.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS A DRIER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE AREA...HOWEVER
GULF MOISTURE WILL BE RETURNING BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WARM AND VERY
HUMID AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL SUBTLE FORMS
OF LIFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE ON AGAIN/OFF AGAIN (PERIODIC)
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR/IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE
BENEATH THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF STORMS. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE GENERAL WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...GAGAN
SYNOPSIS...LINDENBERG
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...GAGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1157 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-161700-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1157 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK
  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
  AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF
  DOLLARS AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH POSSIBLE WITH THE
  STRONGEST STORMS. IN ADDITION...WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN
  PLACE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

  THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK IN AND AROUND THE
  SPRINGFIELD...BATTLEFIELD AND NIXA AREAS. LOCALLY THREE TO FIVE
  INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN AS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STAYED NEARLY
  STATIONARY OVER THIS AREA FOR THE PAST TWO TO THREE HOURS. THIS
  IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. THIS VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT
  IN A VERY FAST RUNOFF OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS AND A RAPID RISE
  ON AREA STREAMS AND CREEKS.

  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
  THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM
  THE WEST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ONCE
  AGAIN...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
  AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS
  SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND
  INTERACT WITH THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. SHOWERS AND
  THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF EACH OF THESE
  DISTURBANCES THROUGH MONDAY. SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE
  POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  DUE TO THE WIDELY SCATTERED NATURE OF THE STRONG TO SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORM RISK...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED
  THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1241 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1239 PM     HEAVY RAIN       7 SSW SPRINGFIELD       37.10N 93.33W
06/15/2013  M9.00 INCH       GREENE             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            UPDATED REPORT,TOTAL RAINFALL SINCE 10AM.

&&

JCOLUCCI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1256 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

KSZ073-151845-
BOURBON KS-
1256 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BOURBON COUNTY UNTIL
145 PM CDT...

AT 1255 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTH OF PORTERVILLE...OR 19 MILES
NORTH OF ST. PAUL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BRONSON...DEVON...FULTON...HAMMOND...
HARDING...MAPLETON...MARMATON...PETERSBURG...PORTERVILLE...
REDFIELD...UNIONTOWN AND XENIA.

LAT...LON 3788 9508 3803 9509 3805 9508 3804 9504
      3805 9464 3804 9462 3797 9462 3767 9499
      3767 9507 3769 9510
TIME...MOT...LOC 1757Z 217DEG 11KT 3779 9509

GRIFFIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
111 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0109 PM     FLASH FLOOD      7 SSW SPRINGFIELD       37.10N 93.33W
06/15/2013                   GREENE             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HONEYSUCKLE AND GARDENA HOMES ARE BEING FLOODED.

&&

JCOLUCCI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
122 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 PM     HEAVY RAIN       REPUBLIC                37.12N 93.48W
06/15/2013  M3.10 INCH       GREENE             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JCOLUCCI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
122 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

MOZ090-095-151900-
CHRISTIAN MO-GREENE MO-
122 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL CHRISTIAN AND
SOUTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

AT 120 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTH OF NIXA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15
MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM. THIS STORM HAS TREMENDOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BATTLEFIELD...FREMONT HILLS...GALLOWAY...
NIXA...SPRINGFIELD AND TURNERS.

INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 77 AND 82 WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3698 9329 3708 9340 3731 9327 3717 9306
      3715 9306
TIME...MOT...LOC 1822Z 216DEG 12KT 3710 9331

GRIFFIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
125 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 ENE BATTLEFIELD       37.13N 93.30W
06/15/2013  E45 MPH          GREENE             MO   PUBLIC

&&

JCOLUCCI