River Flood Warning 58, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
419 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

AS HAS BEEN STATED MORE THAN A FEW TIMES...QUITE THE MESSY
FORECAST FOR THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER KS/OK HAS
SPARKED A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.
STORM INTENSITY HAS COME DOWN A BIT AS WE HAVE SPENT A BIT OF THE
AVAILABLE CAPE BUDGET. CAPE AND MARGINAL DEEP SHEAR (30KT GIVE OR
TAKE) STILL DO SUPPORT A LOCALIZED SEVERE WEATHER RISK WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS POSSIBLE. SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON REPORTS HAVE BEEN
SPORADIC AND WE EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE.

DEFINITELY OBSERVING EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCTION WITH THESE
STORMS. WHILE THE INCREDIBLE RAINFALL TOTALS FROM SOUTH
SPRINGFIELD ARE THE ANOMALY (BY FAR)...WE ARE STILL OBSERVING
WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE ACTIVITY OVER
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.

EXPECTATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT ARE FOR STORMS TO BUILD TO THE
NORTHEAST AND AFFECT (MAINLY) AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM CASSVILLE TO MARSHFIELD TO SALEM. ANY SEVERE RISK WILL BE
THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN RATHER LOCALIZED. DEFINITELY WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD WITH TIME. AT THIS TIME...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT
THIS ACTIVITY COULD DISSIPATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
THOUGH WITH SUCH A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
LIFT TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MCS
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. IT
IS PLAUSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD SPREAD INTO THE REGION AS
FORWARD PROPAGATING STORM MOTION VECTORS POINT INTO OUR REGION. A
SEVERE WIND RISK IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS MCS AND IT WILL BE
SOMETHING WE WATCH CLOSELY WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY (THOUGH TEMPORARILY) MOVE SOUTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY BRINGING (TEMPORARILY) A DRIER AIRMASS TO THE REGION.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AMPLIFIES AGAIN DURING MIDWEEK THIS FRONT
WILL RETURN NORTHEASTWARD AND BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS
FROM TIME TO TIME FROM WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A WARMING TREND IS IN THE OFFING
FROM FRIDAY ONWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY GET INTO THE 90S DURING THE DAY
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WARM AND VERY
HUMID AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL SUBTLE FORMS
OF LIFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE ON AGAIN/OFF AGAIN (PERIODIC)
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR/IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE
BENEATH THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF STORMS. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE GENERAL WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GAGAN
LONG TERM...GAGAN
AVIATION...GAGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
424 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-162130-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
424 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST FROM EXTREME
  SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI...AFFECTING AREAS
  PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM CASSVILLE TO
  MARSHFIELD TO SALEM THROUGH TONIGHT.

  WHILE INSTABILITY LEVELS HAVE DECREASED A BIT AND SHEAR REMAINS
  MARGINAL THERE IS STILL SUPPORT FOR A LOCALIZED SEVERE WEATHER
  RISK. LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND HAIL TO THE
  SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BIGGER RISK WILL BE THE
  POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. ONE TO THREE
  INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AND RESULT IN A
  RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS
  SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND
  INTERACT WITH THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. SHOWERS AND
  THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF EACH OF THESE
  DISTURBANCES THROUGH MONDAY. SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE
  POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
444 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0444 PM     FLASH FLOOD      7 W NEVADA              37.84N 94.48W
06/15/2013                   VERNON             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DRY WOOD CREEK IS FLOODING OVER HIGHWAY 54 WEST OF
            NEVADA. 1 FOOT OF WATER IS OVER A SECTION OF THE HIGHWAY.

&&

DCRAMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
448 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0447 PM     FLASH FLOOD      7 E NASHVILLE           37.37N 94.36W
06/15/2013                   BARTON             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BRIDGE WASHED OUT FROM FLASH FLOODING OF A SMALL
            TRIBUTARY OF THE NORTH FORK OF THE SPRING RIVER.

&&

DCRAMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
452 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     COLUMBUS                37.17N 94.84W
06/15/2013                   CHEROKEE           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT SUSPECTS THAT A MICRO BURST HIT THE
            TOWN OF COLUMBUS. SEVERAL TREES OF ALL SIZES WERE
            DESTROYED ALONG WITH ONE ROOF OF A GARAGE THAT WAS RIPPED
            OFF.

&&

DCRAMER

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