Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
352 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT INTO THE REGION THURSDAY. DISTURBANCES IN ADVANCE OF THIS
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...COOLER...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE OUR REGION
THURSDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. WITH PWATS FROM 1.70 TO 2.0 INCHES AND A SLOW STORM
MOTION...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPS COULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCER. FFG VALUES REMAIN VERY LOW FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL.
GIVEN THE VERY WET ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FROM
THE PAST TWO WEEKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. DECIDED TO POST A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WEST UNTIL 2 AM WITH HIGHER RAINFALL RATES ONE
TO TWO POSSIBLE. A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE INTO THIS
EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

USED A BLEND OF THE HRRR AND THE RNK-WRFARW FOR POPS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY TAPER OFF POPS
FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY
RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THURSDAY EVENING...SURFACE FRONT WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT WITH MODELS TAKING THE FRONT TO THE SANDHILLS OF NC
BEFORE STALLING FRIDAY. NOT SURE HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE
BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BLOCKY WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH ALSO STALLING ALOFT. AT THE VERY LEAST THINK DRYING
WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS AS THE AS WINDS TURN
NORTHERLY...THEN NORTHEASTERLY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRYS TO
WEDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. ATTM...WILL REMAIN OPTOMISTIC
AND KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. AT SOME POINT WINDS WILL VEER WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE FORECAST.

WENT WITH THE COOLER MAV MOS WITH THE THINKING THAT MORE CLOUD
COVER AND A NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND COMPONENT WILL KEEP THE
NUMBERS DOWN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CAN'T SEEM TO SHAKE THE WET PATTERN.

MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST
COAST WILL BECOME STUCK...POSSIBLY CUTTING OFF AND RETROGRADING
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL QUICKLY TURN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...WITH WINDS
CHANNELLING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FAVORING
HIGHER POPS.

AS FOR TEMPS...DO NOT SEE ANY EXTREMES. 85H TEMPS HOVER AROUND
+16 DEG C FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS THIS
SHOULD YEILD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED MVFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR/ISOLATED IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP MANY
SITES AFT 00Z IN SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WINDS REMAINING SW5-7KTS THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH TAF VALID
PERIOD...EXCEPT LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF PUSHING CONVECTION MOSTLY INTO THE
PIEDMONT THURSDAY...BUT EXPECT LINGERING SHRA/ISOLD TSRA FURTHER
WEST. PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR CIGS APPEAR LIKELY EARLY THU...IMPROVING
TO MVFR-VFR BY AFTERNOON. MUCH IMPROVED AVIATION CONDITIONS APPEAR
IN THE OFFING FOR FRI-SAT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM
THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED TSRA
ACTIVITY WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
THUS...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF TYPICAL EARLY
MORNING IFR BR/FG.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-
     022>024-032.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ001>003-018-
     019.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR WVZ042>045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...KK/RAB
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...KK/RAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
332 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

NCZ004>006-020-VAZ033>035-043>047-058-059-111945-
STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-YADKIN-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-
PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
332 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.
LOCALIZED FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...
MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AREA OF SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032-WVZ042>045-111945-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-
WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-
BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
332 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.
FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...
MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AREA OF SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

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