Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
318 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT INTO THE REGION THURSDAY. DISTURBANCES IN ADVANCE OF THIS
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...COOLER...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE OUR REGION
THURSDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. WITH PWATS FROM 1.70 TO 2.0 INCHES AND A SLOW STORM
MOTION...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPS COULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCER. FFG VALUES REMAIN VERY LOW FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL.
GIVEN THE VERY WET ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FROM
THE PAST TWO WEEKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. DECIDED TO POST A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WEST UNTIL 2 AM WITH HIGHER RAINFALL RATES ONE
TO TWO POSSIBLE. A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE INTO THIS
EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

USED A BLEND OF THE HRRR AND THE RNK-WRFARW FOR POPS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY TAPER OFF POPS
FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY
RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

COLD FRONT ENTERING MUCH OF THE REGION MIDDAY THURSDAY...WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS/CLOUDS WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT...COULD LIMIT ANY
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND THE NC PIEDMONT.
STILL COULD ENCOUNTER SOME WATER PROBLEMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY THURSDAY THROUGH NW NC/EXTREME SW VA/SE WEST VA AFTER HEAVY RAIN
ON WEDNESDAY. DRY AIR PUNCHES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH RH
TO ABOUT 40 PERCENT AT H7 BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NEW RIVER
VALLEY. FRONT HANGS UP ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST CWA AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THUS...LEFT HIGHER POPS WELL
INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS THOSE PARTS. ALL GUIDANCE SHOVES THE PRECIP
OUT OF OUR SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH IS A QUICKER
SOLUTION THAN SOME OF THE PREVIOUS RUNS. WINDS VEER TO THE SE AND S
ON SATURDAY RETURNING MORE MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS AND FOR NOW
SLT CHC POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH
OF THE TROUGH AND H85 TEMPS AS COLD AS +11C...DID GO A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE ON HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1225 PM EDT TUESDAY...

PATTERN OVER OUR AREA WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED. WE ARE LOOKING
AGAIN AT A FRONT SITUATED OVER THE COAST OF NC SOUTHWEST INTO
GEORGIA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY TO STAY IN THIS GENERAL AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...WE HAVE SFC HIGH BUILDING SWD FROM
THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC. QUESTION REMAINS WHERE THE BULK OF THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LIE. MODEL TRENDS HAVE FAVORED THAT MOST OF THE
AREA WILL BE SOMEWHAT DRIER WHILE THE SRN CWA STAYS CLOSER TO THE
SFC FRONT AND MORE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. ALOFT...THE TROUGH
AXIS LIES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND SW OVER THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO. DURING THIS TIME WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW TS CHANTAL TRACKS.
WPC/NHC SHOWING BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THAT CHANTAL WILL MOVE TOWARD
EASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA. DURING THIS TIME THE SFC AND LOW LVL FLOW
WILL BE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST INTO OUR AREA AND WILL ENHANCE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH MONDAY STARTING TO LOOK LIKE THE
WETTER DAY. STILL WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THINGS TREND AS MODELS
STILL VARY SOMEWHAT STRENGTH AND POSITION OF UPPER LOW.

GOING INTO TUESDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF WEAKENS THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES
ACROSS OUR CWA WHILE THE LATEST GFS SHOWS UPPER LOW HANGING ON AND
STRONG AS IT MOVES INTO NC. GIVEN THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A HIGH
CHANCE...50 PERCENT FOR SHOWERS.

DURING THIS TIME...THE TEMPERATURES ARE GOING BE SEASONAL...WITH
HIGHS JUST BELOW NORMAL OVERALL AND LOWS STAYING MILDER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED MVFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR/ISOLATED IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP MANY
SITES AFT 00Z IN SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WINDS REMAINING SW5-7KTS THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH TAF VALID
PERIOD...EXCEPT LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF PUSHING CONVECTION MOSTLY INTO THE
PIEDMONT THURSDAY...BUT EXPECT LINGERING SHRA/ISOLD TSRA FURTHER
WEST. PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR CIGS APPEAR LIKELY EARLY THU...IMPROVING
TO MVFR-VFR BY AFTERNOON. MUCH IMPROVED AVIATION CONDITIONS APPEAR
IN THE OFFING FOR FRI-SAT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM
THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED TSRA
ACTIVITY WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
THUS...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF TYPICAL EARLY
MORNING IFR BR/FG.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-
     022>024-032.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ001>003-018-
     019.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR WVZ042>045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...KK/RAB
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...KK/RAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
332 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

NCZ004>006-020-VAZ033>035-043>047-058-059-111945-
STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-YADKIN-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-
PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
332 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.
LOCALIZED FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...
MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AREA OF SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032-WVZ042>045-111945-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-
WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-
BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
332 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.
FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...
MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AREA OF SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

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