Severe Thunderstorm Warning 24, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
418 PM EDT TUE MAY 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS FROM CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING ACROSS VIRGINIA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...ON ITS WAY TO NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS IT DEPARTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

RAINFALL HAS BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD IN NATURE COMPARED TO THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER AFTERNOON HEATING HAS ALLOWED SOME OF THIS RAIN
TO INTENSIFY INTO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WITH FREEZING LEVELS MUCH
LOWER THAN NORMAL DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSING ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON...OUR OFFICE HAS BEEN RECEIVING REPORTS OF
HAIL OUT OF STORMS THAT NORMALLY WOULD NOT PRODUCE HAIL THAT WOULD
REACH THE SURFACE. A FEW STORMS HAVE BECOME STRONG THIS
AFTERNOON...A TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING UNTIL
DAYTIME HEATING ENDS.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LOW TONIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY...FINALLY BREAKING THE TREND OF EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTH THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME
SEVERE ONCE AGAIN. WILL ALSO BE INVESTIGATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MOUNTAINS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 81...LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY
RAIN EARLIER TODAY. SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS MAY
CAUSE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY TO CONVERT DIRECTLY INTO
RUNOFF.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF PREVIOUS
NIGHTS...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
LOW 50S FURTHER EAST. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE WARMER AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY...TAKING SOME OF THE HIGHER CLOUDS WITH
IT. AS SUCH...LOOK FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MID 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONTS...ALTHOUGH RAINFALL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT
HEATING IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OUT OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CROSSING NEW ENGLAND ON ITS WAY OUT TO SEA.
SPOTTY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING...BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW NOW BEING
REPLACED BY WEAK RIDGING IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WE CAN EXPECT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
MAY...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...TO NEAR 80 OVER SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA.

HEIGHTS BUILD AT 500 MB FRIDAY...THEN A DEEP TROF DEVELOPS OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY SUNDAY. THIS PUSHES A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILDER AND FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN UNSTABLE AIRMASS SO HAVE
KEPT PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
UNTIL THE FRONT GOES BY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...

DEEP LONG WAVE TROF WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PROBABILITY
OF RAIN WILL DROP OFF. BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS IN WITH MUCH DRIER AIR. END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT TUESDAY...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COVERED MUCH OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SPECIFICALLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY IMPACT ROA/LYH AND
DAN. THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER BCB/BLF AND
LWB THROUGH 00Z. EXPECT THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS AFTER
00Z...BUT WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...FOG
AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADDED LIFR FOG AND
STRATUS...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING UNTIL JUST AFTER
SUNRISE. FOG WILL DISSIPATE AND CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY
14Z/10AM.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY BE ADDED IN LATER FORECAST. ANY
SUN AND HEATING WILL INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW AND THEREFORE THE MORE INSTABILITY.

BY THURSDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY EXPECT DRY AND WARMER WEATHER...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DURING
THE DAY AND PATCHY MVFR FOG AT NIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSING
THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER AND
LIKELY VFR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...

AS OF THIS AFTERNOON...WATER LEVELS IN A FEW MOUNTAIN CREEKS AND
RIVERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 81 CONTINUE TO RISE DUE TO PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN WHICH FELL DURING THE MORNING. MUCH OF THE RAIN HAS
DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY...BUT CONTINUES TO FALL STEADY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. NEW RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO AN
INCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

IN THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...AND HAVE BECOME SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD. UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HEAVIER
ACTIVITY. SOME RAIN IS DEVELOPING ACROSS AREAS WHICH RECEIVED
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL WITHIN THE LAST DAY. DUE TO SATURATED
SOIL CONDITIONS IN THESE AREA...ANY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MAY BE CONVERTED DIRECTLY INTO RUNOFF. THEREFORE...A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ013-014-016>020-
     022>024-032>035.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ009-012-
     015.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ001>003-
     018-019.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...AMS
HYDROLOGY...NF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
349 PM EDT TUE MAY 7 2013

VAZ013-014-016>020-022>024-032>035-082000-
PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-
BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-
349 PM EDT TUE MAY 7 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ON WEDNESDAY...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL RANGING IN
SIZE FROM DIMES TO QUARTERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ009-012-015-082000-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-SMYTH-WYTHE-GRAYSON-
349 PM EDT TUE MAY 7 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

WHILE CREEK...STREAM...AND RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE
OVERALL TODAY...SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING...
ESPECIALLY IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO PASS OVER THE
SAME LOCATIONS REPEATEDLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ON WEDNESDAY...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL RANGING IN
SIZE FROM DIMES TO QUARTERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ004>006-020-VAZ043>047-058-059-082000-
STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-YADKIN-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
349 PM EDT TUE MAY 7 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN STANDING WATER
ON ROADWAYS...AND MAY CAUSE CREEKS AND STREAMS TO RISE TO BANKFULL
QUICKLY. IN ADDITION...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
OF HALF DOLLARS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ON WEDNESDAY...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL RANGING IN
SIZE FROM DIMES TO QUARTERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ007-010-011-WVZ042>045-082000-
TAZEWELL-BLAND-GILES-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
349 PM EDT TUE MAY 7 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS THAT COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING... ESPECIALLY
IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO PASS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS
REPEATEDLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ON WEDNESDAY...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL RANGING IN
SIZE FROM DIMES TO QUARTERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
304 PM EDT TUE MAY 07 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     HAIL             2 W BOONE               36.21N  81.70W
05/07/2013  E0.25 INCH       WATAUGA            NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER RNK1301370

AMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
314 PM EDT TUE MAY 07 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SSE LOWESVILLE        37.70N  79.06W
05/07/2013                   AMHERST            VA   911 CALL CENTER

            MAPLE RUN CREEK FLOODING ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER RNK1301371

AMS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
425 PM EDT TUE MAY 07 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             5 SSE BASSETT           36.70N 79.94W
05/07/2013  E1.00 INCH       HENRY              VA   PUBLIC

            REPORTED AT THE FIELDALE CAFE ON MARSHALL WAY

&&

PW