Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1046 AM EDT TUE MAY 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT THE UPPER LOW TO TRACKS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY...THEN
NORTH INTO VIRGINIA TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT TUESDAY...

CURRENTLY KEEPING AN EYE ON A BAND OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA FROM AROUND BEDFORD INTO
OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES. A FEW LOCATIONS INSIDE THIS
BAND HAVE RECEIVED IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MORE ON
THE WAY. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
FLASH FLOODING UNTIL RAIN MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AROUND NOON...AND
THEN KEEP WATCH FOR LONGER TERM FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES...WILL ALSO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...WHERE CLOUD COVER IS NOT
AS THICK AND MORE HEATING CAN REACH THE SURFACE. WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IN SUCH CLOSE PROXIMITY...CURRENTLY ROTATING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE A MAJOR
STRETCH TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
CONTAINING LARGE HAIL. REGARDLESS OF THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY...DID
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THIS AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AREAWIDE
AS LATEST RAPID UPDATE WEATHER MODELS AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS
INDICATE RAINFALL INCREASING WITH DAYTIME HEATING. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE MOST
PART...WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN VIRGINIA WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL GET KICK OUT TO SEA ON THURSDAY.
WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THEN INTO THE
PIEDMONT DURING THE DAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE DAYTIME-DRIVEN
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS SHOULD DIE OFF QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET...AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND MOST OF FCST
AREA IS UNDER LIGHT NW FLOW. WE COULD SEE SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
THURSDAY WITH LINGER MOISTURE AND SHORT WAVES TRACKING ON THE
OUTER RINGS OF THE DEPARTING LOW. HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD
NOT EXCEED 20 PERCENT.

PERHAPS THE BIGGER DIFFERENCE IN THE WEATHER BETWEEN WED AND
THURS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE SUN BREAKING THROUGH AT TIMES DURING
THE DAY...WITH WARMER HIGH TEMPS...MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 70S. WENT
CLOSER TO COOLER ECWMF GUIDANCE...AS GFS GUIDANCE HAS MAX TEMPS AS
HIGH AS 80 IN PARTS OF THE EAST THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...

UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS MID WESTERN WAVE SLIDES
IN BEHIND IT...WITH TAP OF GULF MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF IT.  BETTER
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IN SW FLOW FOR GOOD CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS MAINLY BY
FRIDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THEN APPROACHES WESTERN APPALACHIANS BY LATE IN THE DAY
SATURDAY FOR BETTER COVERAGE IN WEST ESPECIALLY. WENT WITH HIGH CHC
TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR SATURDAY AND SHOULD SEE BEST COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

BY SUNDAY MORNING THE INITIAL FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TAKING
MOST MOISTURE WELL TO THE SOUTH...BUT SECONDARY FRONT WITH MUCH
COOLER AIR BEHIND LAGS BEHIND...ESPECIALLY IN GFS...AS UPPER TROUGH
DIGS INTO EASTERN U.S. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF JUST HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL
MSTR WILL BE LEFT AHEAD OF THIS SECONDARY FRONT...AND SOME
INSTABILITY UNDER UPPER TROUGH DEPENDING ON ANY SUNSHINE...BEST TO
LEAVE AT LEAST SOME LOW CHC POPS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY FOR
SUNDAY...BUT ANYTHING THAT DOES FORM WILL BE MAINLY IN MOUNTAINS
WITH WRLY FLOW...AND SHOULD DIE QUICKLY BY LATE IN THE DAY AS DRIER
AIR PUSHES IN AND MAX HEATING WANES.

LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH LOWER DEW PTS BY SUN NIGHT AND IF
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...MIN TEMPS MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S OR EVEN
UPPER 30S MTNS.  COOLER BUT DRY DAY MONDAY AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN AND
UPPER TROF BEGINS TO SHIFT TO NEAR COAST...AND WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON FROST POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 620 AM EDT TUESDAY...

LIFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO BOUNCE AROUND ACROSS
AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WILL CROSS OVER LYH THIS MORNING...THEN THE SUN WILL POKE
THROUGH AND LIFT CEILINGS AND CLEAR VISIBILITIES TO VFR. WITH THE
SUN BREAKING OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON AND COLD POOL FROM THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE CAROLINAS...STRONGER CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS ALL SITES. SHOWERS WILL WANES AFTER SUNSET BUT
WILL NOT COMPLETELY GO AWAY OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS NORTH
INTO VIRGINIA.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER UNSETTLED DAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION...KEEPING CEILINGS AT MVFR AT TIMES. TAF
LOCATIONS FINALLY GET A BREAK ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE REGION AND ALL LOCATIONS WILL RETURN TO
VFR. THE RELIEF WILL BE TEMPORARY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES IN
FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...

SIGNIFICANT ONGOING HYDRO EVENT CONTINUES THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AREAL
AND RIVER FLOODING STILL ON-GOING FOR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE. PERSISTENT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NEW
RIVER...ROANOKE AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEYS THIS MORNING WILL
SEE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SEVERAL LOCATION AT
ACTION OR FLOOD STAGE...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLOOD WATCH. AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
ALONG EASTERN SLOPES. RAIN ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE
AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA HIGHLANDS HAS BEEN NONE EXISTENT
SINCE MONDAY EVENING. DESPITE RIVERS RUNNING HIGH...THIS DOWN-TIME
WILL LOWER LEVELS BELOW BANKFULL. RAIN MAY BRING LEVELS BACK TO
BANKFULL THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ013-014-016>020-
     022>024-032>035.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...NF/RCS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...PM/SK
AVIATION...CF/RCS
HYDROLOGY...RCS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
404 AM EDT TUE MAY 7 2013

VAZ013-014-016>020-022>024-032>035-080815-
PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-
BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-
404 AM EDT TUE MAY 7 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ007-009>012-015-WVZ042>045-080815-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-
WYTHE-GRAYSON-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
404 AM EDT TUE MAY 7 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CREEK...STREAM...AND RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TODAY.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAY BRING A BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOUR THAT COULD BRING LEVELS BACK TO BANK FULL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ004>006-020-VAZ043>047-058-059-080815-
STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-YADKIN-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
404 AM EDT TUE MAY 7 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RCS

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