Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
301 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...AND THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...

...PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN
EFFECT...

PDS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM. THE LATEST
SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWED MLCAPE FROM NEARLY 2000J/KG TO CLOSE TO
4000J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. 0-6KM SHEAR WAS STILL BETTER
NORTH...FROM NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER NORTH INTO VIRGINIA...BUT
DOWNDRAFT CAPE WAS A ROBUST 1000-1500J/KG THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. MSAS SURFACE-BASED LIFTED INDICES WERE -8C TO -10C. THE
LATEST KGSO SOUNDING...FROM 18Z...SHOWED A CAP REMAINING AROUND
800MB BUT WITH THE LAYER AROUND 800MB COOLING SINCE 12Z. THE 18Z
SOUNDING AT KRNK SHOWED THE CAP JUST ABOVE 800MB HAD ERODED...
SUFFICIENTLY FOR A GUST AT KROA TO 59KT WITH STORM PASSAGE AT 1828Z.

THE LATEST HRRR WRF CONTINUES WITH A TIMING OF 19Z TO 21Z IN THE
IMMEDIATE TRIAD...21Z TO 23Z IN THE TRIANGLE NEAR KRDU AND SOUTHWEST
ALONG U.S. 1...AND IN VICINITY OF 22Z OR JUST A LITTLE LATER TOWARD
KRWI...KFAY...AND THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. WHILE THE 0-3KM STORM
RELATIVE HELICITY ON THE 18Z KGSO SOUNDING WAS 84M2/S2...ONE STILL
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A TORNADO...AS STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IN
THE LOWEST 3KM ON THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE APPEARED PRETTY ACCURATE
AND WAS ABOVE 100M2/S2 OVER MOST OF THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...HIGHEST RELATIVE TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE. -10C TO -30C CAPE IS ON THE ORDER OF
1000J/KG AS WELL...SUFFICIENT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
ASSISTING WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...ALREADY SHOWN ON THE 15-MINUTE LIGHTNING PLOT EXTENDING
FROM VIRGINIA SOUTHWEST INTO THE MOUNTAINS.

OVERNIGHT...SUBSIDENCE AND GRADUAL CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE BEHIND
THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD LAG THE DEEP
CONVECTION...AND WILL HOLD ONTO POPS FOR A SHORT PERIOD BEHIND THE
TIMING NOTED ABOVE. HOWEVER...NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW AN
INCREASING STABLE AIR MASS WITH DIMINISHING LAPSE RATES ALOFT. WILL
HAVE POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY
05Z...AND THIS COULD END UP BEING SLOW EVEN IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
TOWARD KCTZ. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

FRIDAY...IN THE TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE MORNING BEHIND THE DEPARTING
STRONG LOW...WIND GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 20KT IN PLACES
WITH MIXING. THESE VALUES SUBSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS 850MB AND
925MB WINDS DIMINISH. WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER AND K INDICES SHOW A
BRIEF INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
AND THE APPROACH OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 85KT 300MB AND 55KT
500MB JET...DIVERGENCE AT 850MB AND STABLE BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY RELATIVELY DEEP CONVECTION. BUFR SOUNDINGS...HOWEVER...
NOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW HIGH SC OR LOW AC DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND WILL AT LEAST FEATURE IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST A
PARTLY SUNNY SKY FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...

BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT AND COOL DOWN
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT (ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THE MID/UPPER HIGH WILL
REMAIN WEST OF OF THE REGION BEFORE FLATTENING OUT BY THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND) WILL LEAD TO MORE SUNSHINE AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD STAY SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S. COMFORTABLE OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY LOWER 60S...BUT SOME UPPER
50S WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A SLIGHT MODERATION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY BEGINS TO RETURN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE
ARE STILL SOME TIMING/STRENGTH ISSUES BETWEEN THE MODELS. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AS THE
STORM SYSTEM REMAINS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. BY MONDAY...WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WE WILL REALLY BEGIN TO SEE OUR
MOISTURE RETURN...WITH PWAT VALUES RISING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...
THEREFORE AM EXPECTING MOSTLY DIURNALLY FORCED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE TRAILING FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE AREA SOMETIME
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...THEREFORE THIS IS WHEN THE HIGHEST PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
NC/SC BORDER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND THIS WILL BE WHAT
ULTIMATELY DRIVES OUR PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FOR NOW WILL KEEP SOME POPS (MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCE)
IN FOR THIS TIME FRAME AND DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT...THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA
TO RECEIVE SOME PRECIP. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 112 PM THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF DEEP CONVECTION. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THE TIMING CONTINUES TO SEEM SIMILAR TO THAT NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...19Z TO 21Z IN THE
IMMEDIATE TRIAD...21Z TO 23Z IN THE TRIANGLE NEAR KRDU...AND IN
VICINITY OF 22Z TOWARD KRWI AND KFAY. SIGNIFICANT CROSSWINDS COULD
DEVELOP WITH POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS. THE
GRADIENT SHOULD TIGHTEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND STILL ANTICIPATE A
FEW WIND GUSTS NEAR 30KT WITH MIXING AHEAD OF DEEP CONVECTION. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO WEST AND NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR. FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH MIXING AND A TIGHT GRADIENT BEHIND STRONG LOW
PRESSURE OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION...
EXPECT A FEW SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT.

BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE AIR MASS MOISTENS AND AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA VERY
LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO AT LEAST A SMALL
CHANCE OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SEC
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...DJF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
703 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

NCZ011-027-028-042-043-073>078-083>086-088-089-142315-
HALIFAX-NASH-EDGECOMBE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-
HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
703 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 308 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH AROUND
900 PM. SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT SEVERE WEATHER AS SOON AS IT IS
SAFE TO DO SO. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR LATER WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-142315-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-
DURHAM-FRANKLIN-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
703 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NO LONGER REQUIRED.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
711 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ANGIER                  35.51N  78.75W
06/13/2013                   HARNETT            NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            OAK TREE BLOWN DOWN AND POWER LINES BLOWN DOWN ALONG
            CROSS STREET. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1300628

BSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
712 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HENDERSON               36.32N  78.41W
06/13/2013                   VANCE              NC   SOCIAL MEDIA

            TREE ACROSS GREYSTONE ROAD IN HENDERSON

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1300629

SEC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
713 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 SSW ROLESVILLE        35.87N  78.50W
06/13/2013  E63 MPH          WAKE               NC   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1300630

BSD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
713 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

NCZ073>075-083-084-086-140015-
ANSON-HOKE-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-RICHMOND-STANLY-
713 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SECTIONS OF
STANLY...MOORE...MONTGOMERY...AND ANSON COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM
EDT...

AT 712 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
OAKBORO...OR ABOUT 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ALBEMARLE...MOVING EAST AT
45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE NORWOOD...MOUNT
GILEAD...PEKIN...CANDOR...EAGLE SPRINGS...SEVEN LAKES.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HALF INCH DIAMETER SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND
TRASH CANS...AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE EXTRA CAUTION TO
AVOID HYDROPLANING.

&&

LAT...LON 3549 7938 3512 7927 3514 8029 3519 8029
      3518 8031 3516 8035 3517 8036 3532 8037
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 268DEG 40KT 3523 8024

WSS