Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Raleigh, NC

448 
WWUS52 KRAH 132234
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
634 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

NCC007-153-165-132315-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0049.000000T0000Z-130613T2315Z/
ANSON NC-RICHMOND NC-SCOTLAND NC-
634 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM EDT
FOR SCOTLAND...RICHMOND AND ANSON COUNTIES...

AT 626 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS... EXTENDING FROM CAMP 
MACKALL TO 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF MONROE...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

THE STRONGEST STORM WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN ANSON COUNTY 
AND NORTHERN RICHMOND INCLUDING ANSONVILLE... WADESBORO AND ELLERBE. 
THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
QUARTER SIZED HAIL.
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... WHITE STORE...
LILESVILLE...WADESBORO...ROCKINGHAM...MORVEN...MCFARLAN...DIGGS...
EAST ROCKINGHAM...DOBBINS HEIGHTS...WAGRAM...HAMLET...GIBSON...LAUREL
HILL... AND LAURINBURG.

STRAIGHT LINE WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES...POWER LINES...AND DAMAGE
MOBILE HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AS FLYING DEBRIS
GENERATED BY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE DEADLY.

WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF ANY RAIN OR LIGHTNING. DO NOT 
WAIT FOR THE SOUND OF THUNDER BEFORE TAKING COVER. SEEK SHELTER 
IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3480 7968 3481 8032 3484 8032 3506 8030
      3514 8005 3518 7980 3516 7962 3512 7957
      3507 7958 3506 7948 3499 7940 3491 7935
      3486 7934 3482 7935 3477 7933 3463 7947
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 283DEG 43KT 3496 7937 3500 8033

$$

GIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
301 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...AND THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...

...PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN
EFFECT...

PDS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM. THE LATEST
SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWED MLCAPE FROM NEARLY 2000J/KG TO CLOSE TO
4000J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. 0-6KM SHEAR WAS STILL BETTER
NORTH...FROM NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER NORTH INTO VIRGINIA...BUT
DOWNDRAFT CAPE WAS A ROBUST 1000-1500J/KG THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. MSAS SURFACE-BASED LIFTED INDICES WERE -8C TO -10C. THE
LATEST KGSO SOUNDING...FROM 18Z...SHOWED A CAP REMAINING AROUND
800MB BUT WITH THE LAYER AROUND 800MB COOLING SINCE 12Z. THE 18Z
SOUNDING AT KRNK SHOWED THE CAP JUST ABOVE 800MB HAD ERODED...
SUFFICIENTLY FOR A GUST AT KROA TO 59KT WITH STORM PASSAGE AT 1828Z.

THE LATEST HRRR WRF CONTINUES WITH A TIMING OF 19Z TO 21Z IN THE
IMMEDIATE TRIAD...21Z TO 23Z IN THE TRIANGLE NEAR KRDU AND SOUTHWEST
ALONG U.S. 1...AND IN VICINITY OF 22Z OR JUST A LITTLE LATER TOWARD
KRWI...KFAY...AND THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. WHILE THE 0-3KM STORM
RELATIVE HELICITY ON THE 18Z KGSO SOUNDING WAS 84M2/S2...ONE STILL
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A TORNADO...AS STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IN
THE LOWEST 3KM ON THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE APPEARED PRETTY ACCURATE
AND WAS ABOVE 100M2/S2 OVER MOST OF THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...HIGHEST RELATIVE TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE. -10C TO -30C CAPE IS ON THE ORDER OF
1000J/KG AS WELL...SUFFICIENT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
ASSISTING WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...ALREADY SHOWN ON THE 15-MINUTE LIGHTNING PLOT EXTENDING
FROM VIRGINIA SOUTHWEST INTO THE MOUNTAINS.

OVERNIGHT...SUBSIDENCE AND GRADUAL CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE BEHIND
THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD LAG THE DEEP
CONVECTION...AND WILL HOLD ONTO POPS FOR A SHORT PERIOD BEHIND THE
TIMING NOTED ABOVE. HOWEVER...NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW AN
INCREASING STABLE AIR MASS WITH DIMINISHING LAPSE RATES ALOFT. WILL
HAVE POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY
05Z...AND THIS COULD END UP BEING SLOW EVEN IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
TOWARD KCTZ. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

FRIDAY...IN THE TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE MORNING BEHIND THE DEPARTING
STRONG LOW...WIND GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 20KT IN PLACES
WITH MIXING. THESE VALUES SUBSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS 850MB AND
925MB WINDS DIMINISH. WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER AND K INDICES SHOW A
BRIEF INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
AND THE APPROACH OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 85KT 300MB AND 55KT
500MB JET...DIVERGENCE AT 850MB AND STABLE BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY RELATIVELY DEEP CONVECTION. BUFR SOUNDINGS...HOWEVER...
NOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW HIGH SC OR LOW AC DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND WILL AT LEAST FEATURE IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST A
PARTLY SUNNY SKY FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...

BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT AND COOL DOWN
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT (ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THE MID/UPPER HIGH WILL
REMAIN WEST OF OF THE REGION BEFORE FLATTENING OUT BY THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND) WILL LEAD TO MORE SUNSHINE AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD STAY SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S. COMFORTABLE OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY LOWER 60S...BUT SOME UPPER
50S WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A SLIGHT MODERATION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY BEGINS TO RETURN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE
ARE STILL SOME TIMING/STRENGTH ISSUES BETWEEN THE MODELS. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AS THE
STORM SYSTEM REMAINS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. BY MONDAY...WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WE WILL REALLY BEGIN TO SEE OUR
MOISTURE RETURN...WITH PWAT VALUES RISING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...
THEREFORE AM EXPECTING MOSTLY DIURNALLY FORCED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE TRAILING FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE AREA SOMETIME
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...THEREFORE THIS IS WHEN THE HIGHEST PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
NC/SC BORDER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND THIS WILL BE WHAT
ULTIMATELY DRIVES OUR PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FOR NOW WILL KEEP SOME POPS (MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCE)
IN FOR THIS TIME FRAME AND DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT...THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA
TO RECEIVE SOME PRECIP. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 112 PM THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF DEEP CONVECTION. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THE TIMING CONTINUES TO SEEM SIMILAR TO THAT NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...19Z TO 21Z IN THE
IMMEDIATE TRIAD...21Z TO 23Z IN THE TRIANGLE NEAR KRDU...AND IN
VICINITY OF 22Z TOWARD KRWI AND KFAY. SIGNIFICANT CROSSWINDS COULD
DEVELOP WITH POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS. THE
GRADIENT SHOULD TIGHTEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND STILL ANTICIPATE A
FEW WIND GUSTS NEAR 30KT WITH MIXING AHEAD OF DEEP CONVECTION. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO WEST AND NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR. FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH MIXING AND A TIGHT GRADIENT BEHIND STRONG LOW
PRESSURE OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION...
EXPECT A FEW SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT.

BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE AIR MASS MOISTENS AND AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA VERY
LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO AT LEAST A SMALL
CHANCE OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SEC
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...DJF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
216 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

NCZ021>023-038-039-073-074-083-140930-
FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-ANSON-
216 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 308 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH LIKELY. THE BEST TIMING FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER APPEARS TO BE THROUGH 6 PM. WHILE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE
THE PRIMARY THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...LARGE HAIL AND EVEN AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. WITH THE RECENT
HEAVY RAINS...SHALLOWLY ROOTED TREES IN PARTICULAR MAY COME DOWN
MORE EASILY IN STRONG WINDS...EVEN GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE VERY FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT SEVERE WEATHER AS SOON AS
IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR LATER WATCHES AND
WARNINGS.

NCZ007>011-024>028-040>043-075>078-084>086-088-089-140930-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-
EDGECOMBE-CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
216 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 308 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEVERE...WITH DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 65 MPH LIKELY...AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL. THE BEST TIMING
FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 5 PM AND 8 PM. WHILE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. WITH THE RECENT
HEAVY RAINS...SHALLOWLY ROOTED TREES IN PARTICULAR MAY COME DOWN
MORE EASILY IN STRONG WINDS...EVEN GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORMS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.

ADDITIONALLY...THE COMBINATION OF A HUMID AIR MASS AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE MID 90S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES AS
HIGH AS 100 TO 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED BETWEEN 4 PM AND 9 PM. SPOTTERS
SHOULD REPORT SEVERE WEATHER AS SOON AS IT IS SAFE TO DO SO.
PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR LATER WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
546 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE CARY               35.77N  78.77W
06/13/2013                   WAKE               NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FOUR-FOOT DIAMETER TREE...60 FEET HIGH...BLOWN DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1300565

BSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
548 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0532 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CARPENTER               35.82N  78.87W
06/13/2013                   WAKE               NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            MULTIPLE TREES BLOWN DOWN AT CARPENTER FIRE STATION
            ROAD AND HIGHWAY 55

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1300566

BSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
549 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 ENE BETHESDA          35.98N  78.79W
06/13/2013                   DURHAM             NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PINE TREE BLOWN DOWN ON HIGHWAY 98 AND OLIVE BRANCH
            ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1300567

BSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
554 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0542 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SANFORD                 35.48N  79.18W
06/13/2013                   LEE                NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SCATTERED TREES BLOWN DOWN AND POWER OUTAGES

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1300568

BSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
602 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0511 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E ROUGEMONT           36.23N  78.88W
06/13/2013                   DURHAM             NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES BLOWN DOWN ALONG RED
            MOUNTAIN ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1300569

BSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
603 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 NNE NORWOOD           35.31N  80.07W
06/13/2013                   MONTGOMERY         NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN NEAR LAKE TILLERY

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1300570

SEC