Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
706 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING WITH IT HEAVY RAIN AND THE CHANCE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 9PM...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS ISSUED A TORNADO
WATCH UNTIL 9PM FOR ALL COUNTIES IN THE CWA EAST OF I-95. THE THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE WITH ANOTHER WATCH POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINING
COUNTIES WITHIN THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING.

TORNADO AND HAIL THREAT: ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY THREAT THIS EVENING IS
STILL EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY HAS SET UP ACROSS THE CWA WHICH COULD BE A CATALYST FOR
ROTATION ONCE STORMS EVOLVE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION BRIEF SPIN
UPS ALONG THE MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION INCREASED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH ALONG
WITH MORE BACKING OF THE WINDS AT THE SURFACE THAN ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED WILL GIVE A SLIGHT BOOST TO THE TORNADO POTENTIAL.
HODOGRAPHS CURRENTLY DEPICT HIGHER HELICITY VALUES IN THE 0-3 KM
RANGE WITH HIGHEST TOTALS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST WHERE TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS DO SHOW SOME
DISCREET CELLS BEGINNING TO FOR AHEAD OF THE LINE IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. IF WE ARE TO SEE ANY HAIL THIS EVENING...THESE DISCREET
CELLS WOULD BE THE BEST CANDIDATES AS THEY DO HAVE HIGHER CAPE IN
THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE. AS THE AFTERNOON WHERES ON THIS INSTABILITY
WILL DIMINISH.

DAMAGING WIND THREAT: THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WITH THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS A QLCS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE
PRIMARY THREAT. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERTED V
SIGNATURE WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR INITIALLY BECOMING MOIST
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AS FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES. THE MID LEVEL CAP
THAT WAS INDICATED EARLIER IN THE DAY HAS MOST LIKELY ERODED OR IS
IN THE PROCESS OF ERODING AT THIS TIME...PAVING THE WAY FOR GREATER
INSTABILITY MOVING FORWARD. MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG IS
MANIFESTING ITSELF OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AND SHOULD HELP TO
STRENGTHEN THE LINE OF STORMS AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT.
CURRENTLY THE BEST LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN TO THE SOUTH BUT
THEY ARE ALREADY GOOD AT 7.5 TO 8 DEG/KM OVER CENTRAL NC. MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE BUT SHOULD IMPROVE SLIGHTLY.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE 40-50 KNOTS ALONG THE LINE OF STORMS WITH
LESSER VALUES OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE. TIMING EXCLUDING CELLS AHEAD OF
THE LINE WILL BE 4-5 PM IN THE TRIAD...7-9 IN THE TRIANGLE AND
10PM-12AM IN THE EAST.

PRECIPITATION THREAT: HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM SPC
MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATERS OVER 1.5 INCHES AND VERY
STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE 50 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET MOVING OVER CENTRAL NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA. EXPECT PLUS
OR MINUS AN INCH OF RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM DEPENDING ON RAIN RATES IN
THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM AND THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE LINE. FLOODING
IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE A LARGE PROBLEM BUT IS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE
ON IN TRAINING CELLS OR IN THE USUAL URBAN FLOOD ZONES.

BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECT LIGHT ANAFRONTAL STRATIFORM RAIN TO CONTINUE
FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OUT DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING ON FOR UPPER
70S IN THE NW TO LOW TO MID 80S SE. DEWPOINTS WILL HOLD IN THE
MIDDLE 60S BEFORE DROPPING OFF BEHIND THE FRONT. AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT WILL MOST LIKELY END UP
MIDDLE 40S NW TO MIDDLE 50S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...

ONCE THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PREFRONTAL CONVECTION CLEAR THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT...STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY AND EXTEND SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO
AROUND 1320M BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS...WHICH SUGGESTS
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.  THE BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY NIGHT..THOUGH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER NC MAY STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WIND.  LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO LOW TO MID
40S IN MOST AREAS...THOUGH UPPER 30S ARE POSSIBLE IN OUTLYING
AREAS.  LOWS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT BUT
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND A
SHARPENING COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD CREATE A CHILLY 10-15MPH
NORTHEASTERLY WIND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...

...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.. EXTENDING SOUTH DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MEANWHILE...A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE MEAN TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.  THE PASSAGE OF THE
WEAKER LEAD SHORTWAVE SHOULD INDUCE WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A
STALLED OUT FRONTAL ZONE OFF CAROLINA COAST...MOSTLY LIKELY LATE
MONDAY BASED ON CURRENT MODELS PROJECTIONS.  THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE RAIN SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE WAVE AS IT LIFTS NORTH AND
PARALLELS THE COASTLINE.  IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN...ESPECIALLY EAST...WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND THE PRESENCE OF
THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FAVOR COLD AIR DAMMING
DEVELOPMENT AND HIGHS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY.  SOME
MODERATION OF HIGHS BACK TOWARD NORMAL WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CAD.  THE
LATTER OF THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES WILL THEN SWING ACROSS
THE MIDWEST STATES WEDNESDAY AND SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM FRIDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
TRIANGLE ADVANCING OFF TOWARDS KRWI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OBSERVED WINDS OF OVER 50 KNOTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH MANY OF
THESE STORMS. THESE STORMS ARE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS FOR SMALL
AIRCRAFT. BEHIND THE CONVECTION AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRATIFORM
RAIN IS POSSIBLE BRINGING WITH IT SOME MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS.
ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL FOLLOW WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST AND REMAINING RELAXING TO 5-10 KNOTS SUSTAINED. CEILINGS
WILL LIFT UP THROUGH VFR AND SKIES MAY CLEAR ON SATURDAY FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS POPPING UP AT 5 KFT.

LONG TERM: SPORADIC SUB-VFR EPISODES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...ELLIS

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>