Severe Thunderstorm Warning 13, NWS Raleigh, NC

586 
WWUS52 KRAH 192012
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
412 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

NCC057-192022-
/O.CAN.KRAH.SV.W.0013.000000T0000Z-130419T2030Z/
DAVIDSON NC-
412 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL DAVIDSON COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND 
THE WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

IF YOU OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE
HAIL...PLEASE REPORT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. IN RALEIGH.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3568 7992 3573 8005 3587 8002 3604 7985
      3587 7955
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 221DEG 44KT 3584 7992

$$

NCC081-151-192030-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0013.000000T0000Z-130419T2030Z/
GUILFORD NC-RANDOLPH NC-
412 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT
FOR NORTHERN RANDOLPH AND SOUTH CENTRAL GUILFORD COUNTIES...

AT 408 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH
OF ARCHDALE...OR 9 MILES WEST OF RANDLEMAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50
MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
QUARTER SIZED HAIL.
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... CLIMAX AND PLEASANT
GARDEN.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 85 BETWEEN EXITS 108 AND 124.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3568 7992 3573 8005 3587 8002 3604 7985
      3587 7955
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 221DEG 44KT 3584 7992

$$

GIH

660 
WWUS52 KRAH 192029
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
429 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

NCC081-151-192039-
/O.EXP.KRAH.SV.W.0013.000000T0000Z-130419T2030Z/
GUILFORD NC-RANDOLPH NC-
429 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN RANDOLPH AND SOUTH 
CENTRAL GUILFORD COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 430 PM EDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND 
THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HOWEVER... ANOTHER STORM IS 
MOVING INTO THIS REGION... AND ANOTHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

IF YOU OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE
HAIL...PLEASE REPORT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. IN RALEIGH.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3568 7992 3573 8005 3587 8002 3604 7985
      3587 7955
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 221DEG 44KT 3600 7975

$$

GIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
255 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING WITH IT HEAVY RAIN AND THE CHANCE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 9PM...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS ISSUED A TORNADO
WATCH UNTIL 9PM FOR ALL COUNTIES IN THE CWA EAST OF I-95. THE THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE WITH ANOTHER WATCH POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINING
COUNTIES WITHIN THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING.

TORNADO AND HAIL THREAT: ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY THREAT THIS EVENING IS
STILL EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY HAS SET UP ACROSS THE CWA WHICH COULD BE A CATALYST FOR
ROTATION ONCE STORMS EVOLVE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION BRIEF SPIN
UPS ALONG THE MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION INCREASED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH ALONG
WITH MORE BACKING OF THE WINDS AT THE SURFACE THAN ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED WILL GIVE A SLIGHT BOOST TO THE TORNADO POTENTIAL.
HODOGRAPHS CURRENTLY DEPICT HIGHER HELICITY VALUES IN THE 0-3 KM
RANGE WITH HIGHEST TOTALS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST WHERE TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS DO SHOW SOME
DISCREET CELLS BEGINNING TO FOR AHEAD OF THE LINE IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. IF WE ARE TO SEE ANY HAIL THIS EVENING...THESE DISCREET
CELLS WOULD BE THE BEST CANDIDATES AS THEY DO HAVE HIGHER CAPE IN
THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE. AS THE AFTERNOON WHERES ON THIS INSTABILITY
WILL DIMINISH.

DAMAGING WIND THREAT: THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WITH THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS A QLCS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE
PRIMARY THREAT. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERTED V
SIGNATURE WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR INITIALLY BECOMING MOIST
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AS FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES. THE MID LEVEL CAP
THAT WAS INDICATED EARLIER IN THE DAY HAS MOST LIKELY ERODED OR IS
IN THE PROCESS OF ERODING AT THIS TIME...PAVING THE WAY FOR GREATER
INSTABILITY MOVING FORWARD. MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG IS
MANIFESTING ITSELF OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AND SHOULD HELP TO
STRENGTHEN THE LINE OF STORMS AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT.
CURRENTLY THE BEST LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN TO THE SOUTH BUT
THEY ARE ALREADY GOOD AT 7.5 TO 8 DEG/KM OVER CENTRAL NC. MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE BUT SHOULD IMPROVE SLIGHTLY.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE 40-50 KNOTS ALONG THE LINE OF STORMS WITH
LESSER VALUES OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE. TIMING EXCLUDING CELLS AHEAD OF
THE LINE WILL BE 4-5 PM IN THE TRIAD...7-9 IN THE TRIANGLE AND
10PM-12AM IN THE EAST.

PRECIPITATION THREAT: HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM SPC
MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATERS OVER 1.5 INCHES AND VERY
STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE 50 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET MOVING OVER CENTRAL NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA. EXPECT PLUS
OR MINUS AN INCH OF RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM DEPENDING ON RAIN RATES IN
THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM AND THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE LINE. FLOODING
IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE A LARGE PROBLEM BUT IS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE
ON IN TRAINING CELLS OR IN THE USUAL URBAN FLOOD ZONES.

BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECT LIGHT ANAFRONTAL STRATIFORM RAIN TO CONTINUE
FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OUT DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING ON FOR UPPER
70S IN THE NW TO LOW TO MID 80S SE. DEWPOINTS WILL HOLD IN THE
MIDDLE 60S BEFORE DROPPING OFF BEHIND THE FRONT. AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT WILL MOST LIKELY END UP
MIDDLE 40S NW TO MIDDLE 50S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...

ONCE THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PREFRONTAL CONVECTION CLEAR THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT...STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY AND EXTEND SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO
AROUND 1320M BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS...WHICH SUGGESTS
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.  THE BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY NIGHT..THOUGH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER NC MAY STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WIND.  LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO LOW TO MID
40S IN MOST AREAS...THOUGH UPPER 30S ARE POSSIBLE IN OUTLYING
AREAS.  LOWS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT BUT
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND A
SHARPENING COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD CREATE A CHILLY 10-15MPH
NORTHEASTERLY WIND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...

...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.. EXTENDING SOUTH DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MEANWHILE...A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE MEAN TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.  THE PASSAGE OF THE
WEAKER LEAD SHORTWAVE SHOULD INDUCE WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A
STALLED OUT FRONTAL ZONE OFF CAROLINA COAST...MOSTLY LIKELY LATE
MONDAY BASED ON CURRENT MODELS PROJECTIONS.  THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE RAIN SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE WAVE AS IT LIFTS NORTH AND
PARALLELS THE COASTLINE.  IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN...ESPECIALLY EAST...WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND THE PRESENCE OF
THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FAVOR COLD AIR DAMMING
DEVELOPMENT AND HIGHS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY.  SOME
MODERATION OF HIGHS BACK TOWARD NORMAL WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CAD.  THE
LATTER OF THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES WILL THEN SWING ACROSS
THE MIDWEST STATES WEDNESDAY AND SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM FRIDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIFT OUT TO VFR FOR A PERIOD OF SEVERAL HOURS.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS
OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOW WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS SUSTAINED GUSTING TO
NEAR 30 KNOTS. EXPECT A WEST TO EAST ADVANCE OF DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS WITH KINT AND KGSO AFFECTED BY THE FRONT BETWEEN 20Z AND
0Z. KRDU AND KFAY WILL SEE STORMS IN THE 22Z TO 2Z TIMEFRAME AND
FURTHER EAST AT KRWI BETWEEN 0Z AND 4Z. WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AND
POTENTIALLY HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN STORMS. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPECT STRATIFORM RAIN TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT ALL SIGHTS
WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AGAIN TO AT LEAST MVFR IF NOT LOWER.
RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT BY SATURDAY MORNING AND CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
TO VFR. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE NEAR
10 KNOTS.

LONG TERM: SPORADIC SUB-VFR EPISODES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...ELLIS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
214 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

NCZ011-027-028-043-078-089-201815-
HALIFAX-NASH-EDGECOMBE-WILSON-WAYNE-SAMPSON-
214 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ007>010-021>026-038>042-073>077-083>086-088-201815-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-
DURHAM-FRANKLIN-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-STANLY-
MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-
214 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

...TORNADO WATCH 130 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 4 PM AND MIDNIGHT. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
237 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

NCZ038-191915-
DAVIDSON-
237 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS DAVIDSON COUNTY THROUGH 315
PM EDT...

AT 237 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
HIGH ROCK...OR ABOUT 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SALISBURY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...DENTON...
GORDONTOWN...THOMASVILLE.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 85 BETWEEN EXITS 91 AND 103.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3601 8005 3565 8006 3554 8020 3555 8022
      3558 8021 3563 8027 3563 8028 3565 8031
      3567 8031 3568 8034 3569 8034
TIME...MOT...LOC 1837Z 220DEG 35KT 3560 8028

GIH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
322 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

NCZ022-192015-
GUILFORD-
322 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS GUILFORD COUNTY THROUGH 415
PM EDT...

AT 322 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
JAMESTOWN...OR ABOUT 5 MILES EAST OF HIGH POINT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
50 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...GREENSBORO...LAKE
TOWNSEND...MCLEANSVILLE...AND MONTICELLO.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE
AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3625 7954 3623 7953 3591 7973 3592 8004
      3626 7987
TIME...MOT...LOC 1922Z 221DEG 42KT 3599 7988

10

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
342 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

NCZ038-039-192015-
DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-
342 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS RANDOLPH AND DAVIDSON
COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

AT 341 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
HIGH ROCK...OR ABOUT 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LINWOOD...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 45 MPH. STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY IN AND NEAR THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...GORDONTOWN...
THOMASVILLE...TRINITY.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 85 BETWEEN EXITS 94 AND 108.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3593 8015 3586 7976 3550 8017 3551 8019
      3555 8022 3558 8021 3563 8027 3563 8028
      3565 8031 3567 8032
TIME...MOT...LOC 1941Z 217DEG 38KT 3563 8021

GIH