Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
255 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING WITH IT HEAVY RAIN AND THE CHANCE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 9PM...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS ISSUED A TORNADO
WATCH UNTIL 9PM FOR ALL COUNTIES IN THE CWA EAST OF I-95. THE THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE WITH ANOTHER WATCH POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINING
COUNTIES WITHIN THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING.

TORNADO AND HAIL THREAT: ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY THREAT THIS EVENING IS
STILL EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY HAS SET UP ACROSS THE CWA WHICH COULD BE A CATALYST FOR
ROTATION ONCE STORMS EVOLVE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION BRIEF SPIN
UPS ALONG THE MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION INCREASED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH ALONG
WITH MORE BACKING OF THE WINDS AT THE SURFACE THAN ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED WILL GIVE A SLIGHT BOOST TO THE TORNADO POTENTIAL.
HODOGRAPHS CURRENTLY DEPICT HIGHER HELICITY VALUES IN THE 0-3 KM
RANGE WITH HIGHEST TOTALS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST WHERE TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS DO SHOW SOME
DISCREET CELLS BEGINNING TO FOR AHEAD OF THE LINE IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. IF WE ARE TO SEE ANY HAIL THIS EVENING...THESE DISCREET
CELLS WOULD BE THE BEST CANDIDATES AS THEY DO HAVE HIGHER CAPE IN
THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE. AS THE AFTERNOON WHERES ON THIS INSTABILITY
WILL DIMINISH.

DAMAGING WIND THREAT: THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WITH THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS A QLCS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE
PRIMARY THREAT. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERTED V
SIGNATURE WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR INITIALLY BECOMING MOIST
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AS FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES. THE MID LEVEL CAP
THAT WAS INDICATED EARLIER IN THE DAY HAS MOST LIKELY ERODED OR IS
IN THE PROCESS OF ERODING AT THIS TIME...PAVING THE WAY FOR GREATER
INSTABILITY MOVING FORWARD. MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG IS
MANIFESTING ITSELF OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AND SHOULD HELP TO
STRENGTHEN THE LINE OF STORMS AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT.
CURRENTLY THE BEST LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN TO THE SOUTH BUT
THEY ARE ALREADY GOOD AT 7.5 TO 8 DEG/KM OVER CENTRAL NC. MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE BUT SHOULD IMPROVE SLIGHTLY.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE 40-50 KNOTS ALONG THE LINE OF STORMS WITH
LESSER VALUES OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE. TIMING EXCLUDING CELLS AHEAD OF
THE LINE WILL BE 4-5 PM IN THE TRIAD...7-9 IN THE TRIANGLE AND
10PM-12AM IN THE EAST.

PRECIPITATION THREAT: HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM SPC
MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATERS OVER 1.5 INCHES AND VERY
STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE 50 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET MOVING OVER CENTRAL NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA. EXPECT PLUS
OR MINUS AN INCH OF RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM DEPENDING ON RAIN RATES IN
THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM AND THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE LINE. FLOODING
IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE A LARGE PROBLEM BUT IS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE
ON IN TRAINING CELLS OR IN THE USUAL URBAN FLOOD ZONES.

BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECT LIGHT ANAFRONTAL STRATIFORM RAIN TO CONTINUE
FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OUT DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING ON FOR UPPER
70S IN THE NW TO LOW TO MID 80S SE. DEWPOINTS WILL HOLD IN THE
MIDDLE 60S BEFORE DROPPING OFF BEHIND THE FRONT. AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT WILL MOST LIKELY END UP
MIDDLE 40S NW TO MIDDLE 50S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...

ONCE THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PREFRONTAL CONVECTION CLEAR THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT...STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY AND EXTEND SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO
AROUND 1320M BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS...WHICH SUGGESTS
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.  THE BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY NIGHT..THOUGH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER NC MAY STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WIND.  LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO LOW TO MID
40S IN MOST AREAS...THOUGH UPPER 30S ARE POSSIBLE IN OUTLYING
AREAS.  LOWS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT BUT
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND A
SHARPENING COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD CREATE A CHILLY 10-15MPH
NORTHEASTERLY WIND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...

...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.. EXTENDING SOUTH DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MEANWHILE...A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE MEAN TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.  THE PASSAGE OF THE
WEAKER LEAD SHORTWAVE SHOULD INDUCE WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A
STALLED OUT FRONTAL ZONE OFF CAROLINA COAST...MOSTLY LIKELY LATE
MONDAY BASED ON CURRENT MODELS PROJECTIONS.  THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE RAIN SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE WAVE AS IT LIFTS NORTH AND
PARALLELS THE COASTLINE.  IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN...ESPECIALLY EAST...WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND THE PRESENCE OF
THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FAVOR COLD AIR DAMMING
DEVELOPMENT AND HIGHS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY.  SOME
MODERATION OF HIGHS BACK TOWARD NORMAL WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CAD.  THE
LATTER OF THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES WILL THEN SWING ACROSS
THE MIDWEST STATES WEDNESDAY AND SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM FRIDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIFT OUT TO VFR FOR A PERIOD OF SEVERAL HOURS.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS
OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOW WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS SUSTAINED GUSTING TO
NEAR 30 KNOTS. EXPECT A WEST TO EAST ADVANCE OF DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS WITH KINT AND KGSO AFFECTED BY THE FRONT BETWEEN 20Z AND
0Z. KRDU AND KFAY WILL SEE STORMS IN THE 22Z TO 2Z TIMEFRAME AND
FURTHER EAST AT KRWI BETWEEN 0Z AND 4Z. WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AND
POTENTIALLY HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN STORMS. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPECT STRATIFORM RAIN TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT ALL SIGHTS
WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AGAIN TO AT LEAST MVFR IF NOT LOWER.
RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT BY SATURDAY MORNING AND CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
TO VFR. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE NEAR
10 KNOTS.

LONG TERM: SPORADIC SUB-VFR EPISODES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...ELLIS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
214 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

NCZ011-027-028-043-078-089-201815-
HALIFAX-NASH-EDGECOMBE-WILSON-WAYNE-SAMPSON-
214 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ007>010-021>026-038>042-073>077-083>086-088-201815-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-
DURHAM-FRANKLIN-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-STANLY-
MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-
214 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

...TORNADO WATCH 130 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 4 PM AND MIDNIGHT. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
508 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0422 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SW PLEASANT GARDEN    35.92N  79.83W
04/19/2013                   GUILFORD           NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN AT US HWY 220 AND HWY 62.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1300382

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
512 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E PLEASANT GARDEN     35.96N  79.75W
04/19/2013                   GUILFORD           NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN AT NEELLEY RD AND ALLIANCE CHURCH RD. RADAR
            ESTIMATED TIME

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1300383

SMITH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
512 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

NCZ007-008-192215-
GRANVILLE-PERSON-
512 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS PERSON AND GRANVILLE
COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

AT 511 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CONCORD...OR ABOUT 8 MILES WEST OF ROXBORO...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...BETHEL HILL... BUSHY
FORK...AND ROXBORO.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.

HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 85 BETWEEN EXITS 202 AND 206.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3653 7846 3652 7847 3652 7849 3649 7851
      3623 7851 3623 7879 3624 7916 3654 7914
      3655 7845
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 230DEG 45KT 3643 7908

10

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
521 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW OAK RIDGE          36.21N  80.03W
04/19/2013                   GUILFORD           NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN AT WATER OAK RD AND HAPPY HILL RD

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1300386

SMITH