Severe Thunderstorm Warning 122, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
710 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2013

.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section.

Vorticity maximum in the mid levels is now punching into wrn parts
of the region, concentrating lift just ahead of it. This has
resulted in a consolidation of showers and tstms into a quasi-linear
convective system (QLCS). We will update the grid forecast again to
reflect this. With anemic mid level lapse rates, tstm activity has
been sporatic at best until the QLCS formed. Most-stable CAPE values
are presently hovering in the 300 j/kg range, and presently it is a
bit uncertain if widespread lightning activity will progress all the
way across the PAH forecast area this evening. Severe wx
possibilities will continue with the line for a few hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

Wx should become more active here over the next few hours as the
dynamic upper trof ejects ENE from the central Plains, with a cold
front moving into the area this evening. Wind fields are forecast
to strengthen with some weak instability developing as well. As a
result, the severe weather threat is in play, with locally
damaging wind gusts most likely. However a brief tornado or two
cannot be ruled out. PoPs will be high end likely to low end
categorical as overall coverage should be less than what we saw
through the morning hours.

We have seen some impressive gradient wind gusts through the
morning and early afternoon. This may continue from time to time
ahead of the front. Overall though, mostly below Wind Advisory
Criteria.

Should have nearly all of the precip out by 06z or so. Dry weather
is forecast after that as high pressure gradually builds into the
area. In terms of temps, used a blend of GFS and NAM MOS.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

Medium to high confidence with the storm system next week and low
confidence on the exact timing.

High pressure will build into the region at the surface at the start
of the extended with upper level ridging in concert with surface
high. This will provide clear skies Sunday with slightly below
normal temperatures...albeit with plenty of sunshine. Temperatures
will warm up as the high drifts to the east and a trough digs to the
west placing the heartland in a southerly flow. The system next week
seems fairly certain but timing issues persist among the models. The
much slower ECMWF compared to the much faster GFS has prompted pop
mentions for a longer duration than will actually come to fruition.
A strong low level jet of 50 knots will accompany this system. This
combined with showalters nearing zero and k index values >30c will
at least include a chance of elevated thunder. Models do agree on
the system exiting the area by Thursday evening at the latest. Also
pushed back the start time of anything until Tuesday with thunder
chc starting Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

Robust sfc winds are expected to gradually subside overnight to
below 10 kts. However, in addition to lesser convection, a line of
tstms, with a few embedded severe tstms, will progress ewd across
the PAH forecast area this evening, creating brief periods of
MVFR/IFR vsbys and mostly MVFR cigs. A cold front will enter the
region during the evening, providing a wind shift to the west, which
will last through the end of the 00Z TAF period. Generally improving
conditions are expected during the day Fri.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...DB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
739 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-020045-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
739 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE PREVALENT WITH MOST STORMS. MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS WILL BE
EAST AT AROUND 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION HAS BEEN REQUESTED TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
904 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     TSTM WND GST     HENDERSON               37.84N 87.58W
10/31/2013  M54 MPH          HENDERSON          KY   AWOS

            MEASURED AT HENDERSON COUNTY AIRPORT.

&&

SMITTY

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