Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
215 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

Wx should become more active here over the next few hours as the
dynamic upper trof ejects ENE from the central Plains, with a cold
front moving into the area this evening. Wind fields are forecast
to strengthen with some weak instability developing as well. As a
result, the severe weather threat is in play, with locally
damaging wind gusts most likely. However a brief tornado or two
cannot be ruled out. PoPs will be high end likely to low end
categorical as overall coverage should be less than what we saw
through the morning hours.

We have seen some impressive gradient wind gusts through the
morning and early afternoon. This may continue from time to time
ahead of the front. Overall though, mostly below Wind Advisory
Criteria.

Should have nearly all of the precip out by 06z or so. Dry weather
is forecast after that as high pressure gradually builds into the
area. In terms of temps, used a blend of GFS and NAM MOS.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

Medium to high confidence with the storm system next week and low
confidence on the exact timing.

High pressure will build into the region at the surface at the start
of the extended with upper level ridging in concert with surface
high. This will provide clear skies Sunday with slightly below
normal temperatures...albeit with plenty of sunshine. Temperatures
will warm up as the high drifts to the east and a trough digs to the
west placing the heartland in a southerly flow. The system next week
seems fairly certain but timing issues persist among the models. The
much slower ECMWF compared to the much faster GFS has prompted pop
mentions for a longer duration than will actually come to fruition.
A strong low level jet of 50 knots will accompany this system. This
combined with showalters nearing zero and k index values >30c will
at least include a chance of elevated thunder. Models do agree on
the system exiting the area by Thursday evening at the latest. Also
pushed back the start time of anything until Tuesday with thunder
chc starting Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

Main morning rain shield is making slow progress eastward. it
should clear KPAH in the next hour or so, but it may linger over
KEVV and KOWB through much of the afternoon. MVFR conditions will
prevail with the main rain shield, but a brief period of IFR
conditions cannot be ruled out in the heaviest precipitation.

A newer band of heavy showers west of KCGI will lift northeast
and may sneak just west of the terminal, but will insert a TEMPO
with IFR SHRA just to be safe. Will not account for this band at
the other terminals at this time, as it should stay north and west
of them.

The strongest convection will progress from west to east across
the terminals reaching KCGI around 21Z and KOWB around 00Z. This
will likely be a broader area of near surface-based, possibly
discrete, convection. It certainly does not look like just a quick
hitting fine-line. So, decided to go with a 4 hour period of just
VCTS for now. There is some potential that most of this activity
will lift northeast and may not impact much of west Kentucky. So
did not insert TS at KPAH at this time.

MVFR ceilings will prevail at least through the cold frontal
passage this evening. Gusty south to southwest winds will continue
at least through sunset, and possibly beyond in the east. Gusts
may approach 30kts at times. The strongest gusts will likely
impact KCGI.

Not sure what to do with ceilings behind the front. Some evidence
in guidance for a low, possibly IFR, ceiling to persist through
much of the night, especially at KEVV and KOWB. Winds should stay
at or above 4kts, so fog not really a concern unless a site
unexpectedly goes calm. Southwest winds up to 10kts or so will
develop Friday morning and there may be a few cu, mainly in the
east.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CN
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...DRS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
218 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-011000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
218 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...SHOULD SEVERE
STORMS OCCUR. A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE PREVALENT WITH MOST STORMS. MOVEMENT OF THE
STORMS WILL BE EAST NORTHEAST 50 TO 60 MPH. MOST OF THE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE EAST OF WEST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA BY 10 PM TO
MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
416 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HEAVY RAIN       CHRISTOPHER             37.97N 89.05W
10/31/2013  M2.50 INCH       FRANKLIN           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL TOTAL FROM AROUND NOON THROUGH 4 P.M.

&&

CTN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
442 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG METROPOLIS              37.15N 88.71W
10/31/2013                   MASSAC             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LARGE TREE ON RESIDENCE. SIGNIFICANT STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.
            18TH STREET AND GIBBONS STREET. IT IS UNCLEAR IF THE TREE
            WAS SOUND...ROTTED OR WEAKENED.

&&

CTN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
609 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0608 PM     HAIL             DONIPHAN                36.62N 90.82W
10/31/2013  M0.50 INCH       RIPLEY             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MARBLE SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN TOWN.

&&

SMITTY

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
639 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0638 PM     TSTM WND GST     POPLAR BLUFF            36.76N 90.41W
10/31/2013  M50 MPH          BUTLER             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            50 MPH GUST REPORTED JUST WEST OF THE COMMUNITY.

&&

SMITTY