Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2013
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Paducah, KY
NWS Paducah, KY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Oct 31, 2013, 6:10 PM CDT for Butler County, Ripley County, Missouri. It was in force for 35 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 31, 2013, 6:10 PM CDT (23:10 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 31, 2013, 6:45 PM CDT
- In force
- 35 min
- Issued by
- NWS Paducah, KY
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Hail
- 1.0 in
- Wind
- 60.0 mph
Counties Butler County, MO, Ripley County, MO
The radar
The Memphis radar (KNQA), 164 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watch it was issued in
The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.
| Issued | Product | Office | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 5:24 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | 6 hr |
The nearest sounding before it
Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 11.2 hours before the alert went out and 366 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1088 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 49 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 258 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 319 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Oct 31, 2:15 PM CDT, 3 hours 55 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 31, 2:15 PM CDT, 3 hours 55 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 215 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2013 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday night) ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013 Wx should become more active here over the next few hours as the dynamic upper trof ejects ENE from the central Plains, with a cold front moving into the area this evening. Wind fields are forecast to strengthen with some weak instability developing as well. As a result, the severe weather threat is in play, with locally damaging wind gusts most likely. However a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out. PoPs will be high end likely to low end categorical as overall coverage should be less than what we saw through the morning hours. We have seen some impressive gradient wind gusts through the morning and early afternoon. This may continue from time to time ahead of the front. Overall though, mostly below Wind Advisory Criteria. Should have nearly all of the precip out by 06z or so. Dry weather is forecast after that as high pressure gradually builds into the area. In terms of temps, used a blend of GFS and NAM MOS. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday) ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013 Medium to high confidence with the storm system next week and low confidence on the exact timing. High pressure will build into the region at the surface at the start of the extended with upper level ridging in concert with surface high. This will provide clear skies Sunday with slightly below normal temperatures...albeit with plenty of sunshine. Temperatures will warm up as the high drifts to the east and a trough digs to the west placing the heartland in a southerly flow. The system next week seems fairly certain but timing issues persist among the models. The much slower ECMWF compared to the much faster GFS has prompted pop mentions for a longer duration than will actually come to fruition. A strong low level jet of 50 knots will accompany this system. This combined with showalters nearing zero and k index values >30c will at least include a chance of elevated thunder. Models do agree on the system exiting the area by Thursday evening at the latest. Also pushed back the start time of anything until Tuesday with thunder chc starting Tuesday night. && .AVIATION... ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013 Main morning rain shield is making slow progress eastward. it should clear KPAH in the next hour or so, but it may linger over KEVV and KOWB through much of the afternoon. MVFR conditions will prevail with the main rain shield, but a brief period of IFR conditions cannot be ruled out in the heaviest precipitation. A newer band of heavy showers west of KCGI will lift northeast and may sneak just west of the terminal, but will insert a TEMPO with IFR SHRA just to be safe. Will not account for this band at the other terminals at this time, as it should stay north and west of them. The strongest convection will progress from west to east across the terminals reaching KCGI around 21Z and KOWB around 00Z. This will likely be a broader area of near surface-based, possibly discrete, convection. It certainly does not look like just a quick hitting fine-line. So, decided to go with a 4 hour period of just VCTS for now. There is some potential that most of this activity will lift northeast and may not impact much of west Kentucky. So did not insert TS at KPAH at this time. MVFR ceilings will prevail at least through the cold frontal passage this evening. Gusty south to southwest winds will continue at least through sunset, and possibly beyond in the east. Gusts may approach 30kts at times. The strongest gusts will likely impact KCGI. Not sure what to do with ceilings behind the front. Some evidence in guidance for a low, possibly IFR, ceiling to persist through much of the night, especially at KEVV and KOWB. Winds should stay at or above 4kts, so fog not really a concern unless a site unexpectedly goes calm. Southwest winds up to 10kts or so will develop Friday morning and there may be a few cu, mainly in the east. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. MO...NONE. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && SHORT TERM...CN LONG TERM...KH AVIATION...DRS
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 31, 2:18 PM CDT, 3 hours 52 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 218 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-011000- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 218 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...SHOULD SEVERE STORMS OCCUR. A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE PREVALENT WITH MOST STORMS. MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS WILL BE EAST NORTHEAST 50 TO 60 MPH. MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE EAST OF WEST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA BY 10 PM TO MIDNIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Oct 31, 3:13 PM CDT, 2 hours 57 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 313 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-312330- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION... MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO... CARMI...CARBONDALE...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...SHAWNEETOWN... JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...CAIRO... MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE... EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...HICKMAN...CLINTON... BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND...BENTON... MURRAY...MARION...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...MORGANFIELD... DIXON...MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...OWENSBORO... CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...ELKTON...PERRYVILLE...MARBLE HILL... CAPE GIRARDEAU...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF... BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID 313 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013 ...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS... STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WEST KENTUCKY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS THROUGH THE DAY HAVE BEEN 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AT TIMES. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE. SHOULD STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP...A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED. IN THE MEANTIME...THE GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING DOWN MORE TREE LIMBS AND RESULT IN CHALLENGING DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
Local storm report, Oct 31, 4:16 PM CDT, 1 hour 54 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
416 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0415 PM HEAVY RAIN CHRISTOPHER 37.97N 89.05W
10/31/2013 M2.50 INCH FRANKLIN IL TRAINED SPOTTER
RAINFALL TOTAL FROM AROUND NOON THROUGH 4 P.M.
&&
CTNLocal storm report, Oct 31, 4:42 PM CDT, 1 hour 28 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
442 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0430 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG METROPOLIS 37.15N 88.71W
10/31/2013 MASSAC IL EMERGENCY MNGR
LARGE TREE ON RESIDENCE. SIGNIFICANT STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.
18TH STREET AND GIBBONS STREET. IT IS UNCLEAR IF THE TREE
WAS SOUND...ROTTED OR WEAKENED.
&&
CTNLocal storm report, Oct 31, 6:09 PM CDT, 1 minute before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
609 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0608 PM HAIL DONIPHAN 36.62N 90.82W
10/31/2013 M0.50 INCH RIPLEY MO EMERGENCY MNGR
MARBLE SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN TOWN.
&&
SMITTYThe office that day
Everything else NWS Paducah, KY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 6:01 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PAH | Wayne | 29 min |
| Oct 31, 6:43 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PAH | Butler, Stoddard | 47 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Missouri, 2013Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2013
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.