River Flood Warning 46, NWS Mobile, AL

509 
WGUS84 KMOB 270236
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
836 PM CST TUE FEB 26 2013
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN ALABAMA...FLORIDA...
 
  STYX RIVER NEAR ELSANOR AFFECTING BALDWIN AND ESCAMBIA COUNTIES. 

.RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE RIVER. 

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

ALC003-FLC033-270826-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0046.000000T0000Z-130227T0826Z/
/STXA1.1.ER.130227T0030Z.130227T0200Z.130227T0226Z.NO/
836 PM CST TUE FEB 26 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE STYX RIVER NEAR ELSANOR
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT 
* AT 8PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.1 FEET 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND NO FLOODING IS FORECAST 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING.
* AT 12 FEET, RESIDENTS DOWNSTREAM AT SEMINOLE LANDING SHOULD BE ALERT TO 
  POSSIBLE FLOODING AS THE GAGE RISES TO THE 12 FOOT FLOOD STAGE.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
540 PM CST TUE FEB 26 2013

.AVIATION...(00Z ISSUANCE)VFR SKIES/CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY]...26.12 UTC WEATHER MAP ANALYSIS
SHOW WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM PIVOTING ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS/SOUTHERN MISSOURI. LARGE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...SPINNING NORTHEAST AND IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SO...UP INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME WRAP AROUND STRATUS
NOTED ON HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OVER THE NORTHERN
ZONES...BUT AS LOW LIFTS UP AND INCREASES ITS DISTANCE FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST...CLOUDS ALSO TO MOVE OUT TONIGHT. THIS TREND
ALREADY OBSERVED IN SATELLITE ANIMATION. THUS...MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT
AND SUNNY ON WEDNESDAY. THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW WILL RESULT
IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT TERM WEATHER MODEL FORECASTS
THOUGH...INDICATE WIND SPEED VALUES TO BE SHY OF CRITERIA NECESSARY
TO MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORY OVER THE INTERIOR. THUS...THE WIND
ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON FOR INTERIOR ZONES.
THE ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES OF ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WIND GRADIENT RELAXES TONIGHT AS LOW TO OUR NORTH LIFTS
OUT. THUS...NO EXTENSION TO THE COASTAL WIND ADVISORY IS EXPECTED
THIS EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S INTERIOR TO
MID/UPPER 40S CLOSE TO THE COAST. HIGHS WEDNESDAY 64 TO 69. /10

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...A DRY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHILE
MAINLY NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW PREVAILS BETWEEN RIDGING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. SKIES GENERALLY LOOK TO BE
MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY BOTH DAYS WITH RAIN CHANCES PRETTY MUCH
NIL. COLD AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S...FALLING TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S BY FRIDAY. LOWS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS SHOULD RANGE BELOW NORMAL...MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S THURSDAY MORNING...AND 30S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY
MORNING.

ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PACKAGE. THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEEPEN IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI
FRIDAY...BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY. THIS
WILL BE QUITE A COLD CORE SYSTEM AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND -35 C NEAR
THE LOW CENTER. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST SATURDAY...WITH 850
MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE -6 TO -8 C RANGE ACROSS THE CWFA BY
00Z SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
TO LOW 50S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION SATURDAY. MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
ALSO SHOW SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
THE BASE OF THE UPPER AIR LOW DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WE MAINTAINED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WILL HAVE TO
WATCH TEMPERATURE PROFILES TO SEE IF A FEW SNOW FLURRIES CAN ALSO MIX
IN. GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE DEPTH/QUALITY...ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS LOOKS TO BE VERY LIGHT. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
RETURNS IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING UPPER LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT PERHAPS BRINGING ANOTHER
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN BY NEXT TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY MODIFYING INTO MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. /21

&&

.MARINE...AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS UP ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...GALE CONDITIONS LOOK TO
ABATE...BUT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN ADVISORY HEADLINES TONIGHT. HIGH SEA STATES PERSIST.
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX FURTHER WEDNESDAY AND SEA STATES
TREND LOWER. LOOK TO BE MOVING INTO A LONG PERIOD OF OFFSHORE FLOW.
NORTHWEST FLOW BUILDS THURSDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT. OVER THE WEEKEND...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE PLAINS...DOWN INTO THE GULF.
ALOFT...WEATHER MODELS BRING AN UPPER LEVEL TROF INTO THE SOUTHEAST
BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN FOR SATURDAY. /10

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVER THE
AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS TO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
WITH MUCH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED. OTHER REQUIREMENTS DO NOT
LOOK TO BE MET FOR RED FLAG HEADLINES. DISPERSIONS LOOK TO RANGE FROM
FAIR TO GOOD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NO FOG IS EXPECTED THE NEXT
COUPLE OF NIGHTS. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      39  67  40  60  35 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   44  65  43  61  38 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      48  64  46  60  41 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   38  66  36  60  32 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  37  67  36  58  31 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      37  66  36  60  32 /  00  00  00  00  05
CRESTVIEW   38  69  39  63  34 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER
     BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...PENSACOLA
     BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...PENSACOLA
     BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

10/21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
126 PM CST TUE FEB 26 2013

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-271930-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
126 PM CST TUE FEB 26 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE FOR
STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

SEVERAL AREA RIVERS REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD. REFER TO LATEST RIVER FLOOD
WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SEVERAL AREA RIVERS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD INTO THE
WEEKEND. REFER TO LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR
SPECIFIC INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SEVERAL AREA RIVERS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD INTO THE
WEEKEND. REFER TO LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR
SPECIFIC INFORMATION.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-271930-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
126 PM CST TUE FEB 26 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
TODAY WILL RESULT IN NEAR GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS TODAY AND HIGH SEAS.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MEET ADVISORY
CRITERIA WITH HIGH SEAS CONTINUING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW AND MODERATE SEAS WILL MAINTAIN
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.