Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
216 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

.DISCUSSION...

ALTHOUGH WE ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE, IT WILL REMAIN
CENTERED OVER MEXICO WITH WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING
BETWEEN THE UA RIDGE AND A SEMI PERMANENT UA TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS.  SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO GRAZE THE AREA TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
THEREFORE, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST TEXAS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITHIN A HIGHER THETA E AXIS.  WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL LIMIT
HOW FAR EAST THESE THUNDERSTORMS TRAVEL EACH EVENING/OVERNIGHT, BUT
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD
RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON ANY GIVEN NIGHT WELL
INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN, STOCKTON PLATEAU, IF NOT THE BIG BEND
REGION.  INSTABILITY IS NOT QUITE AS HIGH TODAY AS YESTERDAY, AND 0
TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR IS NOT AS STRONG EITHER.  STILL, INSTABILITY
AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
A FEW SEVERE STORMS.  DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS, ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

HAVE TAPERED POPS DOWN MONDAY AND TUESDAY SINCE THERE ARE COMPETING
IDEAS ON WHERE, AND HOW STRONG, THE UA RIDGE WILL BE.  FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD THOUGH THE UA RIDGE IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN OVER
NEW MEXICO, THEN TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.
SINCE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS WILL BE UNDER
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE, RAIN
CHANCES LOOK PRETTY BLEAK WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO SPIKE AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES RISE OVER THE REGION, WITH
READINGS A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 72  95  71  96  /  20  20  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              73  96  72  96  /  10  10  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                70 100  70 101  /  30  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  75  96  76  97  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           73  96  73  97  /  20  20  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          69  95  70  96  /  30  30  30  20
HOBBS NM                   69  96  69  97  /  40  20  20  20
MARFA TX                   62  91  61  90  /  20  20  20  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    72  95  72  96  /  20  20  10   0
ODESSA TX                  72  95  74  95  /  20  20  10  10
WINK TX                    73  99  73 100  /  30  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

27/67

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
203 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-211915-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
203 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013 /103 PM MDT THU JUN 20 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LAMESA TO FORT STOCKTON TO BIG BEND
LINE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY FOR MAINLY SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
REGIONS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
314 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

NMZ028-202045-
EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
214 PM MDT THU JUN 20 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
CENTRAL EDDY COUNTY UNTIL 245 PM MDT...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF CAVERN CITY AIR
TERMINAL AT 214 PM MDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND STRONG WINDS... DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER... YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3256 10447 3261 10424 3235 10395 3223 10439
      3239 10457
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 234DEG 8KT 3236 10436

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