Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
556 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...

SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KMAF FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STORMS TO THE NE
COLLIDES W/CONVECTION COMING OFF THE MTNS WEST. HOWEVER...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF DIRECT...HEAVIER CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE...A 40+KT LLJ WILL MAINTAIN RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CU FIELD WILL BE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...W/BASES 7-9 KFT AGL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/

DISCUSSION...
THE SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN CENTERED OVER MEXICO THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN EDGING NORTHWARD TOWARD WEST TEXAS
TODAY WHILE AN UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THE
SURFACE...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS AS LEE TROUGHING ENHANCES
TO THE NORTH. SKIES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING AND
MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO LOW 90S. SEVERAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING OVER THE DAVIS
AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAIN REGIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO
MIGRATE OUT INTO THE PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS
OF WEST TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...AN EARLY MORNING
MCS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE HAS SENT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE PERMIAN BASIN...AS NOTED ON RADAR.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THESE
AREAS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL MAKE NOTE OF THIS IN THE HWO. ANY CONVECTION
MOVING OFF THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO INTERACT WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND COULD RESULT IN AN
ISOLATED SHORT- LIVED TORNADO.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT
MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE OVER MOST OF THE REGION. SURFACE LEE
TROUGHING WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS...KEEP STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HEATING NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS MAY HELP
TO GENERATE SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN REGIONS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS
THROUGH SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW HOWEVER IF WE CAN GET A
WEAKNESS IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE DURING PEAK
HEATING...COINCIDENT WITH A MID LEVEL THETA E AXIS...THEN ITS
DEFINITELY POSSIBLE FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NIL FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S WITH HIGHER READINGS IN THE PECOS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEYS.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
303 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-202015-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
303 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013 /203 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LAMESA...TO WINK...TO
FORT STOCKTON...TO TERLINGUA LINE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
734 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

NMZ029-200100-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-
634 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AN INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM
AFFECTING NORTHEASTERN LEA COUNTY UNTIL 700 PM MDT...

AN INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
CROSSROADS AT 634 PM MDT...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3331 10305 3331 10338 3356 10339 3358 10309
      3357 10305
TIME...MOT...LOC 0034Z 267DEG 21KT 3346 10317

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
741 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

TXZ058-067-200115-
WARD-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
741 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
CENTRAL REEVES AND WESTERN WARD COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF
PECOS TO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TOYAH LAKE AT 740 PM CDT...MOVING EAST
AT 15 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZED HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE.

THE AREA AFFECTED INCLUDES INTERSTATE 20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 19 AND
52.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF SEVERE WEATHER IS OBSERVED...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN MIDLAND.

&&

LAT...LON 3164 10321 3119 10319 3111 10367 3162 10378
TIME...MOT...LOC 0040Z 261DEG 15KT 3153 10362 3122 10351

05

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