Tornado Warning 35, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
203 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...HIGH SHEAR...AND INSTABILITY
PRESENT. SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...AND A TORNADO WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 02Z. SOME STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL...GIVEN THE SLOW MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR...AND
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER.

ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY TRANSLATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...DIMINISHING A BIT AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES
THROUGH...AND THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. THESE WILL MOST LIKELY
AFFECT NORTHERN ARKANSAS.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF BREAK DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...
COLD FRONT WILL START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA...PARTICULARLY IN THE
NORTHWEST. DUE TO ALREADY WET GROUND...THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
EXPECTED COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE...WITH HIGHER TOTALS OF FIVE INCHES OR MORE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH MID DAY SATURDAY. IF MODEL TRENDS ARE ANY INDICATION...
THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD A BIT IN THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS MID DAY INTO
LATE SATURDAY...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING. WHILE LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL IS A POSSIBILITY THEN...IT/S NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
WIDESPREAD.

FRONT SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY LATE SATURDAY...WITH COOLER WEATHER IN
THE OFFING.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     70  81  71  81 /  60  30  50  70
CAMDEN AR         70  85  71  88 /  50  10  20  60
HARRISON AR       67  82  68  78 /  60  30  80  80
HOT SPRINGS AR    71  85  73  83 /  50  10  20  70
LITTLE ROCK   AR  71  86  72  84 /  40  20  20  70
MONTICELLO AR     72  90  73  89 /  30  10  20  60
MOUNT IDA AR      72  84  74  83 /  50  10  30  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  68  82  68  81 /  60  30  80  80
NEWPORT AR        71  83  71  81 /  60  30  30  70
PINE BLUFF AR     71  85  72  85 /  30  10  20  70
RUSSELLVILLE AR   70  83  71  81 /  50  20  50  80
SEARCY AR         70  83  70  82 /  50  20  30  70
STUTTGART AR      71  85  72  86 /  40  20  20  70
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR BAXTER-BOONE-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY.
&&

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...62

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
335 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-311000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
335 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THERE IS A THREAT FOR
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IN WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL SECTIONS...
THROUGH 9 PM. ALSO... DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED... ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
NATIONS MID SECTION. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY AND SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS BUT THE TORNADO
THREAT CAN NOT BE DISCOUNTED ENTIRELY.

IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS...THE MOISTURE LADEN
AIR MASS COULD ALSO LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE IS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY FINALLY ALLOWING A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TO ADVANCE INTO
THE STATE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN CONCERN. THE AREA
OF CONCERN WILL BE ALONG THE BOUNDARY ITSELF AND WILL COVER A MUCH
LARGER AREA THAN TODAY OR FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

56

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
221 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

ARZ004-005-013-014-022-023-302005-
BAXTER AR-MARION AR-POPE AR-SEARCY AR-STONE AR-VAN BUREN AR-
221 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN VAN BUREN...
NORTHWESTERN STONE...SEARCY...NORTHEASTERN POPE...SOUTHERN MARION AND
BAXTER COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

AT 218 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
WESTERN GROVE TO NEAR EULA TO 5 MILES NORTH OF SOLO...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  YELLVILLE...          MOUNTAIN HOME...      MARSHALL...
  ZACK...               WOOLUM...             WITTS SPRING...
  WATTS...              THOLA...              SHIPP...
  SALESVILLE...         SAINT JOE...          RUSH...
  RODNEY...             ROBINSON PT LNDG...   PUSH MTN...
  POINT PETER...        NORFORK DAM...        NORFORK...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...MOVE INDOORS UNTIL
THE STORMS PASS.

&&

LAT...LON 3634 9215 3618 9216 3618 9221 3614 9222
      3610 9218 3612 9215 3610 9213 3593 9217
      3557 9296 3589 9289 3597 9294 3611 9295
      3612 9289 3617 9288 3646 9223
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 240DEG 42KT 3613 9288 3594 9278
          3571 9283

46

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
319 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0203 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 SW RICH MOUNTAIN      34.62N 94.42W
05/30/2013                   POLK               AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES WERE REPORTED DOWN. COUNTY
            ROAD 127 REPORTED TO BE BLOCKED BY TREES.

0303 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     ODEN                    34.62N 93.79W
05/30/2013                   MONTGOMERY         AR   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

55

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
326 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0303 PM     TORNADO          ODEN                    34.62N 93.79W
05/30/2013                   MONTGOMERY         AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            *** 2 INJ *** HOUSE WAS REPORTED TO BE DESTROYED IN WEST
            SIDE OF ODEN. TWO REPORTED TO BE INJURED. POWER LINES
            ALSO DOWN...AND HIGHWAY 88 IS BLOCKED.

&&

55

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
338 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0338 PM     TORNADO          LAKE OUACHITA STATE PAR 34.62N 93.19W
05/30/2013                   GARLAND            AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MOVING TOWARDS LENA LANDING.

&&

55

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>