Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
550 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2012

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS ARKNASAS. LIGHT
RAIN WILL BE SEEN BEHIND THE STORM WITH OVERALL MVFR CEILINGS. OVER
NORTH AR...KHRO AND KBPK...PATCHY WINTER WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 25 KNOTS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHILE
NW TO N 10 TO 15 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF NORTH TEXAS/SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA. LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY JUST SOUTHWEST
OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING
FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
REMAIN LIKELY...WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM ONE TO THREE
INCHES. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND ON TOP OF THE 1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES ALREADY
RECEIVED TODAY.

SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY IN AREAS EAST OF
I-30/SOUTH OF I-40. WIND AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN...THOUGH A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IT WILL
ALL DEPEND ON IF STORMS CAN BECOME SURFACE BASED...WHICH SO FAR
THEY/RE HAVING A HARD TIME DOING. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WIND
DOWN IN THE HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

COLD AIR PUSHING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY
RAPIDLY...WITH SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN/
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WOULD
INITIALLY BE IN THE FORM OF A LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE AND
SLEET MIX...CHANGING TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING. AT THIS POINT...IT
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE SIGNIFICANT TO CAUSE
WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS.

AN ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
SUNDAY...KEEPING SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY...AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...
AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL NOT BE ANYTHING OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. TO BEGIN
THE PERIOD. THE UPPER TROUGH DOES NOT MOVE MUCH THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND BY SATURDAY EVENING...THE TROUGH IS OVER THE EAST AND AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST.

MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT FOR A DRY EXTENDED FORECAST. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     32  37  21  39 / 100  50  10  10
CAMDEN AR         44  48  26  43 / 100  70  20  20
HARRISON AR       26  35  16  36 / 100  20  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    40  45  24  45 / 100  40  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  41  44  25  42 / 100  50  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     49  49  28  39 / 100  90  30  20
MOUNT IDA AR      36  43  19  44 / 100  30  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  30  37  18  37 / 100  30  10  10
NEWPORT AR        36  39  23  39 / 100  60  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     45  45  27  42 / 100  80  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   36  41  19  43 / 100  20  10  10
SEARCY AR         35  38  20  39 / 100  60  10  10
STUTTGART AR      40  42  25  41 / 100  70  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR BAXTER-BOONE-CALHOUN-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-
OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-
STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-YELL.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-
CLEVELAND-DESHA-DREW-GRANT-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-MONROE-
PRAIRIE-WOODRUFF.
&&

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...55

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1038 AM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-131100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1038 AM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN GULF MOISTURE TO ARKANSAS
TODAY. THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...WHEN COMBINED WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO ARKANSAS
TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY TEXARKANA UP THROUGH LITTLE ROCK AND
BATESVILLE. IN THESE AREAS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.

GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...THERE IS A FLASH FLOOD
CONCERN ACROSS THE REGION. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A
LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS. VEGETATION IS DORMANT...AND IS NOT CONSUMING
MUCH GROUND WATER. THIS WILL CAUSE SOIL TO BECOME SATURATED MORE
QUICKLY...AND RUNOFF WILL INCREASE MORE READILY. THUS...THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WILL BE ENHANCED.

ALSO...TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS TEXARKANA TO BATESVILLE CORRIDOR...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THIS WILL RESULT
IN INCREASED INSTABILITY IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE. WHILE
THE OVERALL THREAT IS NOT EXTREMELY HIGH...SOME STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
STRONG....CAUSING THESE STORMS TO BE QUICK MOVING. THIS OFTEN
INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. ALSO...SOME
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO ROTATE AS WINDS CHANGE DIRECTION
WITH HEIGHT. WHILE NOT HIGH...THE THREAT OF A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT...RAIN WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SOME SLEET BEFORE
TRANSITIONING QUICKLY TO SNOW. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE
SEEN IN ELEVATED AREAS ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF
ARKANSAS SUNDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE MOSTLY EAST OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NOTED IN
THE FAR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. BY SUNDAY MORNING...
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN PARTS OF THE OZARKS. IT
IS POSSIBLE THE COLD AIR COULD PUSH IN BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS...CAUSING A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...OR EVEN
FLURRIES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. HOWEVER..THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD MOVE EAST QUICKER THAN THE COLD AIR ARRIVES...THUS
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING THE CHANCES OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
STILL...IF IT DOES OCCUR...AMOUNTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF POTENTIAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST IN FAR
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
SAME REASONS...COLD AIR FILTERING IN AT THE SURFACE WHILE RAIN
CONTINUES TO FALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
MAINLY EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH OF I-40.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
823 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     FLASH FLOOD      DANVILLE                35.05N 93.39W
01/12/2013                   YELL               AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ARKANSAS 27 HAD MANY SPOTS UNDER WATER. IN THE EASTERN
            PART OF DANVILLE...ONE HOME WITH FIVE PEOPLE IN IT WAS
            EVACUATED...AND ONE HIGH WATER RESCUE WAS NECESSARY FOR A
            PERSON IN A CAR.

&&

28

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
839 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MOUNTAIN VIEW           35.87N 92.11W
01/12/2013                   STONE              AR   PUBLIC

            STREEET FLOODING IN MOUNTAIN VIEW

&&

225

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
856 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W INK                 34.58N 94.13W
01/12/2013                   POLK               AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BRIDGES WASHED OUT ALONG OAK COUNTY RD.

&&

224

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
917 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CLINTON                 35.58N 92.45W
01/12/2013                   VAN BUREN          AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            THE STATE POLICE REPORTED FLASH FLOODING ON THE STREETS
            IN CLINTON.

&&

28

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
921 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     HAIL             HOT SPRINGS             34.49N 93.05W
01/12/2013  E0.88 INCH       GARLAND            AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

0918 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HOT SPRINGS             34.49N 93.05W
01/12/2013                   GARLAND            AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A STATE TROOPER REPORTED ABOUT A FOOT OF WATER FLOWING
            OVER CENTRAL AVE. NEAR THE MALL.

&&

28

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
928 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     FLASH FLOOD      Y CITY                  34.73N 94.08W
01/12/2013                   SCOTT              AR   CO-OP OBSERVER

            MINOR STREET FLOODING BETWEEN Y CITY AND BOLES.

&&

224