Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
956 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM NEAR CORNING...TO CONWAY...TO NEAR
MOUNT IDA. BEHIND THE FRONT...COLD AIR QUICKLY FILTERING IN. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED NEAR 70 DEGREES. WHILE
THERE WAS SOME ROTATION IN STORMS THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST...TRENDS ARE NOW SHOWING MORE OF A DEVELOPED LINE WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MORE THAN A TORNADIC THREAT. WILL KEEP THE
TORNADO WATCH GOING IN COUNTIES EAST OF THE FRONT...WITH FLASH
FLOODING BEING THE MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING.

NEXT CONCERN IS POTENTIAL WINTER PRECIPITATION WITH ANY MOISTURE
REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS. DRY SLOT IS ALREADY SHOWING UP
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND HAVE LOWERED
POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTH CENTRAL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HARRISON IS REPORTING FREEZING RAIN...BUT CALLS TO LAW ENFORCEMENT
INDICATE ROADWAYS ARE FINE. WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN...THINK
THAT ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT...AND WILL MAINLY AFFECT ELEVATED SURFACES...INCLUDING BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES. WILL ISSUE AN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT
ICING POTENTIAL FOR NORTHWEST COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2012/

AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS ARKNASAS. LIGHT
RAIN WILL BE SEEN BEHIND THE STORM WITH OVERALL MVFR CEILINGS. OVER
NORTH AR...KHRO AND KBPK...PATCHY WINTER WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 25 KNOTS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHILE
NW TO N 10 TO 15 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF NORTH TEXAS/SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA. LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY JUST SOUTHWEST
OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING
FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
REMAIN LIKELY...WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM ONE TO THREE
INCHES. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND ON TOP OF THE 1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES ALREADY
RECEIVED TODAY.

SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY IN AREAS EAST OF
I-30/SOUTH OF I-40. WIND AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN...THOUGH A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IT WILL
ALL DEPEND ON IF STORMS CAN BECOME SURFACE BASED...WHICH SO FAR
THEY/RE HAVING A HARD TIME DOING. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WIND
DOWN IN THE HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

COLD AIR PUSHING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY
RAPIDLY...WITH SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN/
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WOULD
INITIALLY BE IN THE FORM OF A LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE AND
SLEET MIX...CHANGING TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING. AT THIS POINT...IT
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE SIGNIFICANT TO CAUSE
WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS.

AN ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
SUNDAY...KEEPING SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY...AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...
AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL NOT BE ANYTHING OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. TO BEGIN
THE PERIOD. THE UPPER TROUGH DOES NOT MOVE MUCH THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND BY SATURDAY EVENING...THE TROUGH IS OVER THE EAST AND AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST.

MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT FOR A DRY EXTENDED FORECAST. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-CALHOUN-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-
OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-
STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-YELL.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-
CLEVELAND-DESHA-DREW-GRANT-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-MONROE-
PRAIRIE-WOODRUFF.

&&

58

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
839 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MOUNTAIN VIEW           35.87N 92.11W
01/12/2013                   STONE              AR   PUBLIC

            STREEET FLOODING IN MOUNTAIN VIEW

&&

225

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
856 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W INK                 34.58N 94.13W
01/12/2013                   POLK               AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BRIDGES WASHED OUT ALONG OAK COUNTY RD.

&&

224

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
917 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CLINTON                 35.58N 92.45W
01/12/2013                   VAN BUREN          AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            THE STATE POLICE REPORTED FLASH FLOODING ON THE STREETS
            IN CLINTON.

&&

28

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
921 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     HAIL             HOT SPRINGS             34.49N 93.05W
01/12/2013  E0.88 INCH       GARLAND            AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

0918 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HOT SPRINGS             34.49N 93.05W
01/12/2013                   GARLAND            AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A STATE TROOPER REPORTED ABOUT A FOOT OF WATER FLOWING
            OVER CENTRAL AVE. NEAR THE MALL.

&&

28

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
928 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     FLASH FLOOD      Y CITY                  34.73N 94.08W
01/12/2013                   SCOTT              AR   CO-OP OBSERVER

            MINOR STREET FLOODING BETWEEN Y CITY AND BOLES.

&&

224

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