Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
539 AM CST SUN JAN 13 2013

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE THIS MORNING WITH
NORTH TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS BUT
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE. MOISTURE REMAINS PREVALENT
THIS MORNING AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZDZ WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KHRO AND KBPK THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES BUT LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT EXCEPT OVER THE NORTH. WIDESPREAD
MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING BEFORE
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN. SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST SUN JAN 13 2013/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

THE COLD FRONT HAS NOT MOVED COMPLETELY THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...AND AS SUCH ALL FLASH FLOOD AND TORNADO WATCHES HAVE BEEN
DROPPED.

SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE STILL ONGOING IN THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. HEAVY RAIN AND ASSOC SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL
PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. HOWEVER
SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH NRN OKLAHOMA LATER TODAY. THOUGH
CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...IT IS DOUBTFUL THERE WILL BE ANYTHING MORE
THAN A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES OR RUMBLES OF THUNDER FROM
THESE POST FRONTAL SHOWERS...SO LEFT OUT MENTION OF TSTMS.
ADDITIONALLY...TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWEST WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SOME FREEZING RAIN OR POSSIBLY SLEET. THIS IS COVERED IN
THE FORECAST BUT DO NOT EXPECT THERE WILL BE MUCH ACCUMULATION.
CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
MEAN VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT IN TEMPERATURES TODAY. TEMPERATURES IN
THE SOUTHEAST MAY CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE
LEVELING OFF FOR THE DAY...WHEREAS TEMPS ELSEWHERE MAY SEE A RISE
OF A FEW DEGREES TO THEIR CALENDAR DAY HIGHS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY. WITH A DECENT
CAA REGIME IN PLACE...A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL STAY SEATED ACROSS
THE REGION. SEVERAL IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THESE MAY DRAW THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BACK TO
THE NW AND SPARK OFF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE PROCESS.
CURRENT HI-RES MODELS HAVE TIMING OF SUCH WAVES COMING THROUGH ON
MONDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT SOME
15-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THESE TIME PERIODS. WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING...THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF
WINTRY PRECIP. SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DRYING IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DURING THESE PERIODS...WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY FOR MAYBE SOME DRIZZLE OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. OTHERS SHOW SOME HIGHER RH ALOFT. SINCE MOST MODELS SHOW
MORE SUBSTANTIAL QPF JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...DECIDED TO GO
WITH THE LATTER APPROACH AND INCLUDE RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND
SLEET AS POSSIBLE PRECIP TYPES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS.
WILL NEED TO WATCH SITUATION CLOSELY AS A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN
MODEL QPF COULD WARRANT CONCERN. HOWEVER...CURRENT FORECAST WILL
REFLECT LOW QPF AND SUBSEQUENTLY MINIMAL...IF ANY...IMPACTS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S THOUGH...SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ALL MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ADVERTISING DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A TOUCH
ABOVE NORMAL. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN THE
MODELS...WILL SIMPLY BLEND FORECAST SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH UPPER PATTERN DOMINATED BY STRONG RIDGE ALONG
THE WEST COAST WITH A BROADER...FLATTER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH
WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN ITS BASE. UPPER LOW WILL TRACK TO THE EAST
BUT WITH VIRTUALLY NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...ITS PASSAGE WILL GO
LARGE NOTICED.

OTHERWISE...A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY BUT ONLY A WIND SHIFT TO MARK ITS PRESENCE. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS IN ITS WAKE AND WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK GOOD AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     36  21  38  22 /  50  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         44  26  42  28 /  50  20  20  10
HARRISON AR       31  16  35  18 /  20  10  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    41  24  43  25 /  40  10  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  40  25  41  26 /  50  10  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     58  28  38  31 /  70  20  20  20
MOUNT IDA AR      39  20  42  22 /  30  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  34  18  36  19 /  30  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        37  23  38  23 /  60  10  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     45  27  40  29 /  60  20  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   40  20  41  20 /  30  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         37  21  38  22 /  50  10  20  10
STUTTGART AR      41  25  39  26 /  60  20  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...56

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CST SUN JAN 13 2013

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-141100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CST SUN JAN 13 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY IS LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST THIS MORNING OR ARKANSAS
THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD BUT IT WILL
BE A SLOW PROCESS. AS A RESULT...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
FOR A GOOD PART OF TODAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE THIS MORNING BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...SOME SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FAR
SOUTHEAST. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

MUCH COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE STATE AND SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES HAVE MOVED INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH AND ACROSS THE
OZARKS. A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...OR EVEN FLURRIES
IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. AMOUNTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF POTENTIAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST IN FAR
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS LATE THIS EVENING TONIGHT AS SHOWERS CONTINUE AND
TEMPERATURES FALL OFF.

&&

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK
AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE.

TEMPERATURES ARE SUCH THAT THE PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE AND A MAYBE A LITTLE BIT OF SLEET DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGE OVER TO JUST RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE DAY. IF
PRECIPITATION DOES FALL...ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINOR AND
LIKELY NOT HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT.

NO OTHER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND COMMENCING. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY MAKE IT
TO NEAR NORMAL OR POSSIBLY A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

56

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
513 AM CST SUN JAN 13 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0422 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MENA                    34.58N 94.24W
01/12/2013                   POLK               AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER IS BEGINING TO COVER ROADS IN PARTS OF MENA AND IN
            LOW LYING AREAS.

0530 PM     FLASH FLOOD      Y CITY                  34.73N 94.08W
01/12/2013                   SCOTT              AR   CO-OP OBSERVER

            MINOR STREET FLOODING BETWEEN Y CITY AND BOLES.

0530 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W INK                 34.58N 94.13W
01/12/2013                   POLK               AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BRIDGES WASHED OUT ALONG OAK COUNTY RD.

0544 PM     FLASH FLOOD      DOVER                   35.40N 93.11W
01/12/2013                   POPE               AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER RESCUE WAS PERFORMED FOR PEOPLE STRANDED IN A
            VEHICLE.

0548 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ATKINS                  35.24N 92.95W
01/12/2013                   POPE               AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER RESCUE WAS PERFORMED FOR PEOPLE STRANDED IN A
            VEHICLE.

0600 PM     FLASH FLOOD      RUSSELLVILLE            35.27N 93.14W
01/12/2013                   POPE               AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER IS FLOWING OVER MULTIPLE BRIDGES ON BACK ROADS.
            PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS AVENUE HAS BEEN CLOSED. WATER IS UP
            TO AND ENTERING HOUSES.

0600 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MOUNTAIN VIEW           35.87N 92.11W
01/12/2013                   STONE              AR   PUBLIC

            STREEET FLOODING IN MOUNTAIN VIEW

0600 PM     FLASH FLOOD      DANVILLE                35.05N 93.39W
01/12/2013                   YELL               AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ARKANSAS 27 HAD MANY SPOTS UNDER WATER. IN THE EASTERN
            PART OF DANVILLE...ONE HOME WITH FIVE PEOPLE IN IT WAS
            EVACUATED...AND ONE HIGH WATER RESCUE WAS NECESSARY FOR A
            PERSON IN A CAR.

0609 PM     FLASH FLOOD      RUSSELLVILLE            35.27N 93.14W
01/12/2013                   POPE               AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NORTH WACO AVENUE HAS 8 INCHES OF STANDING WATER ON
            ROADWAY. THIS WATER HAS SPREAD AND IS NOW FLOODING
            APARTMENTS.

0630 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 W MOUNT IDA           34.55N 93.67W
01/12/2013                   MONTGOMERY         AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SOME CREEKS OVERFLOWING THEIR BANKS IN RURAL AREAS.

0820 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CLINTON                 35.58N 92.45W
01/12/2013                   VAN BUREN          AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            THE STATE POLICE REPORTED FLASH FLOODING ON THE STREETS
            IN CLINTON.

0915 PM     HAIL             HOT SPRINGS             34.49N 93.05W
01/12/2013  E0.88 INCH       GARLAND            AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

0918 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HOT SPRINGS             34.49N 93.05W
01/12/2013                   GARLAND            AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A STATE TROOPER REPORTED ABOUT A FOOT OF WATER FLOWING
            OVER CENTRAL AVE. NEAR THE MALL.

0933 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SHIRLEY                 35.64N 92.31W
01/12/2013                   VAN BUREN          AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS ROADS HAVE WATER OVER THEM OR ARE IMPASSABLE
            ALTOGETHER. NEAR SHIRLEY...HIGHWAY 16 EAST AT 10277...
            OAKLAND RD...AND PEE DEE. NEAR CHOCTAW...U.S. 65 AT BOAR
            RD. AND ARKANSAS 95 AT MORNINGSIDE. AT SCOTLAND...
            ARKANSAS 389 IMPASSABLE IN NUMEROUS PLACES. ARKANSAS 95
            AT FOSTERS CEMETERY. IN DAMASCUS...SULPHUR RD. AT
            STONE/VAN BUREN COUNTY LINE...MEADOW CREEK BRIDGE AT
            AUGSBURG...RED RIVER BRIDGE AT ANGORA RD. IN FAIRFIELD
            BAY...DAVE CREEK.

1010 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BATESVILLE              35.77N 91.62W
01/12/2013                   INDEPENDENCE       AR   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL ROADS BEING BARRICADED IN BATESVILLE DUE TO HIGH
            WATER.

&&

56

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
644 AM CST SUN JAN 13 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 AM     FLASH FLOOD      WEST POINT              35.20N 91.61W
01/13/2013                   WHITE              AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HIGHWAY 323 SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 36 IN WEST POINT HAS BEEN
            CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

227

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