River Flood Warning 132, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
629 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FOCUS THRU THIS PERIOD WILL BE TSRA CHANCES.

SFC ANALYSIS AT 07Z DEPICTS THE EFFECTIVE SFC BNDY ACROSS WRN IA
INTO NWRN MO...THEN EXTENDING SWWD INTO ERN KS. BELIEVE THIS IS SOME
SORT OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF/DRY LINE AS IT APPEARS THE ACTUAL SFC FNT
IS STILL ACROSS ERN NEB INTO WRN KS. THIS TROF/DRY LINE SHUD MOVE
EWD RATHER SLOWLY TODAY.

A NUMBER OF QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT TODAY GIVEN THE SPREAD AMONG MDL
SOLNS. EXPECT ONGOING PRECIP TO GRADUALLY MOVE EWD OUT OF THE CWA
LATER THIS MORNING. BELIEVE ISOD TO SCT TSRA WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE TROF/DRY LINE. SETUP TODAY DOES NOT APPEAR AS
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER...BELIEVE THE GFS/NAM ARE UNDERPLAYING THE EVENT TODAY AND
TONIGHT FOR THE CWA.

MDLS PROG CONVECTION OVER ARKLATEX REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVE LIFTING
NEWD TONIGHT INTO THE CWA. THIS TSRA WILL BE DRIVEN BY A VORT MAX
CURRENTLY OVER NRN NM/SRN CO REGION. MDLS TO SOME DEGREE...EXCEPT
FOR THE NAM...DEVELOP A SFC WAVE ALONG THE SFC TROF TONIGHT. THIS
LOW SHUD TRAVEL NEWD ALONG THE SFC TROF. THE ECMWF/LOCAL WRF HAVE A
MORE NWRN SOLN AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS THESE MDLS HAVE A FAIRLY
GOOD HANDLE CURRENTLY ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. IF THIS SOLN
VERIFIES...THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED SHEAR AS WELL AS ALLOW
STEEPER LAPSE RATES TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA. GIVEN PROGD HODOGRAPHS
AND TIMING...BELIEVE TSRA WILL BE LINEAR BY THE TIME THEY ENTER THE
CWA.

IF THIS NRN SOLN IS CORRECT...THE DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

AS FOR TEMPS...TRENDED AOA WARMEST MOS FOR TODAY AND COOLER FOR
TONIGHT AS THE ACTUAL CDFNT FINALLY MOVES THRU THE AREA.

TILLY

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FOCUS STARTS TO SHIFT TO TEMPS AS PRECIP FINALLY MOVES E OF THE
AREA.

WITH FOCUS ON TODAY AND TONIGHT...ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE PREV FORECAST AS MUCH OF IT STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. MDLS
ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE PERIOD WRT MASS FIELDS.

UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TEMPS ON WED/THURS. MDLS SUGGEST TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70S. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT IT IS MAY...IF
ANY SUN MANAGES TO MAKE IT THRU THE CLOUDS...WUD BE SURPRISED IF
TEMPS DID NOT AT LEAST BRIEFLY REACH UPPER 70S OR INTO THE LOWER
80S. WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON SAT AND
BEYOND...TEMP FORECAST BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH DIFFERING
SOLNS AT THE SFC. FOR NOW...MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES...BUT BELIEVE
A TREND TWD THE GFS MAY BE NEEDED WITH A WARMER AND DRIER SOLN.

TILLY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS
SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE CWA. NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
CROSSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. RAIN CHANCES TO FINALLY COME TO AN END
FOR TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH THINNING CLOUD COVER.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ONCE
AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
434 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-221200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
434 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI AND MUCH
OF SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREATS. SOME AREAS COULD
ALSO EXPERIENCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS EASTERN
MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS...AND YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST. LOUIS.

TILLY

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