Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS St. Louis, MO

397 
WWUS53 KLSX 210128
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
828 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

MOC019-027-051-135-210137-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-130521T0130Z/
BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-MONITEAU MO-
828 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MONITEAU...COLE...SOUTHWESTERN
CALLAWAY AND SOUTHERN BOONE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 830 PM CDT...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE
WARNED AREA.

A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CALLAWAY 
COUNTY UNTIL 900 PM CDT.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...AND A TORNADO 
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN ST LOUIS.

LAT...LON 3865 9284 3869 9278 3868 9262 3885 9255
      3890 9247 3879 9208 3860 9197 3855 9203
      3848 9202 3846 9209 3847 9217 3844 9216
      3841 9212 3833 9227 3833 9240 3842 9241
      3843 9263 3860 9285
TIME...MOT...LOC 0127Z 230DEG 61KT 3891 9226 3883 9204
          3863 9199

$$

BRITT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
352 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

ALL SYSTEMS APPEAR GO FOR AN ACTIVE NIGHT OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KTS. THE AIR MASS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF MISSOURI HAS RECOVERED FROM EARLIER CONVECTION WITH SBCAPE
AOA 3000 J/KG AND THIS RECOVERY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN SEVERAL CONFLUENT ZONES ACROSS SW MO AND SE KS AND
ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
WITH DISCRETE STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND THEN AN
OVERALL TREND FOR RAPID UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING
QLCS FEATURING A MIX MODE OF BOWING SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS. THIS QLCS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT A GOOD PORTION OF THE
CWA AS IT MOVES E/NW TONIGHT. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
OCCUR WHERE TRAINING OCCURS...BUT THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

GLASS

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE IMPACTS OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ARE HARD TO GAGE AND WILL
HAVE LARGE RAMIFICATIONS ON THE THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE THREAT
TUESDAY. ANY ONGOING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REMNANT FROM OVERNIGHT
ARE LIKELY TO BE LOCATED ACROSS SE MO INTO SW IL DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE MORNING AND THEN WEAKEN. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT
WILL THEN REMAIN RELATIVELY VOID OF PRECIPITATION WELL INTO MID
AFTERNOON AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME AIR MASS RECOVERY AS
CLOUDS THIN. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP SO OVERALL
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LESS THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS...HOWEVER IT SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SCATTERED ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE LATER PART OF THE AFTERNOON...RAMPING
UP IN COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORT WAVE ROTATING NEWD FROM EASTERN OK
REGION. ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE FURTHER FOCUS AND
ENHANCE THE SEVERE THREAT. THE LARGE SCALE TROF AND ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...PASSING
EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR AND COOLER
AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL USHER EVEN
COOLER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE AREA.

THE PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY WEAK NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE UPPER TROF AND LOOKS DRY THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...THEREAFTER
RETURN FLOW AND WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING THRU THE PLAINS UPPER
RIDGE AND INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY WILL BRING A RE-NEWED
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS....ESPECIALLY THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA.
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE RETURN FLOW.

GLASS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

STILL HARD TO PIN DOWN EXACT COVERAGE AND TIMING OF STORMS...SO
KEPT VCTS MENTION AT KCOU THROUGH 03Z TUESDAY AND THROUGH 04Z
TUESDAY AT KUIN. FURTHER EAST OVER STL METRO AREA...HRRR MODEL
INDICATING STORMS TO NOT MOVE IN TIL AFTER 01Z TUESDAY...MAYBE
EVEN LATER...BUT KEPT VCTS MENTION AFTER 01Z TUESDAY FOR
NOW...TAPERING OFF AFTER 07Z TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CIGS AND
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...STILL HARD TO PIN DOWN EXACT COVERAGE AND
TIMING OF STORMS...LATEST HRRR MODEL INDICATING STORMS TO NOT MOVE
IN TIL AFTER 04Z TUESDAY...MAYBE EVEN LATER...BUT KEPT VCTS
MENTION AFTER 01Z TUESDAY FOR NOW AS WE COULD SEE STUFF FIRE UP
AHEAD OF MAIN ACTIVITY. STORMS TO TAPER OFF AFTER 07Z TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CIGS AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z TUESDAY...SO ADDED VCTS MENTION DURING
THIS PERIOD.

BYRD

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
405 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-211130-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
405 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE
SEVERE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. SOME AREAS COULD ALSO EXPERIENCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BECOME SEVERE.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS EASTERN
MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS...AND YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST. LOUIS.

GLASS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
733 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0729 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HANNIBAL                39.71N  91.38W
05/20/2013                   MARION             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN

&&

GKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
739 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0738 PM     HAIL             LAKE ST. LOUIS          38.79N  90.78W
05/20/2013  E0.25 INCH       ST. CHARLES        MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
744 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0736 PM     TORNADO          HANNIBAL                39.71N  91.38W
05/20/2013                   MARION             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            THERE ARE SEVERAL LARGE TREES SNAPPED. - SEVERE DANAGE
            TO TWO MACHINE SHEDS NEAR HIGHWAY MM. SHINGLES REMOVED
            AT SOME BUILDINGS IN DOWNTOWN AREA.

&&

PRZYBYLINSKI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
745 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W HANNIBAL            39.71N  91.40W
05/20/2013                   MARION             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS TREES UPROOTED

&&

GKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
746 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     TSTM WND GST     HULL                    39.71N  91.20W
05/20/2013  E60 MPH          PIKE               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
747 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     HAIL             2 SSW O'FALLON          38.76N  90.72W
05/20/2013  E0.25 INCH       ST. CHARLES        MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

GKS