Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Jackson, KY

104 
WWUS53 KJKL 301144
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
644 AM EST WED JAN 30 2013

KYC125-147-199-203-231-235-301215-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-130130T1215Z/
MCCREARY KY-PULASKI KY-ROCKCASTLE KY-WAYNE KY-WHITLEY KY-LAUREL KY-
644 AM EST WED JAN 30 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN
LAUREL...WESTERN WHITLEY...SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE...ROCKCASTLE...EASTERN
PULASKI AND MCCREARY COUNTIES UNTIL 715 AM EST...

AT 637 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS 
OF UP TO 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING 
FROM SNIDER TO GRADE TO GREAT MEADOWS CAMPSITES...MOVING EAST AT 
45 MPH.

A WIND GUST TO 64 MPH WAS REPORTED IN AT THE SOMERSET AIRPORT AT
APPROXIMATELY 635 AM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WHITLEY CITY...WILLIAMSBURG...BURR...HUMMEL...DISPUTANTA...
  CEDARVILLE...MOUNT VICTORY...PONGO...PARKERS LAKE...ORLANDO...
  BUMMER...FLAT ROCK...WIBORG...CLIMAX...DUDLEY STATION...PINE
  HILL...LUNER...BLUE HERON...BILLOWS AND SINKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

INTENSE SQUALL LINES CAN OCCASSIONALY PRODUCE BRIEF TORNADOES IN 
ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. FOR YOUR PROTECTION 
MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR 
BUSINESS. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY AND 
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PROPERTY.

&&

LAT...LON 3662 8477 3694 8460 3726 8450 3735 8447
      3744 8445 3748 8438 3754 8435 3754 8429
      3752 8427 3753 8424 3752 8423 3701 8410
      3659 8418
TIME...MOT...LOC 1142Z 274DEG 39KT 3750 8426 3701 8442
          3662 8464
WIND...HAIL 70MPH <.50IN

$$

HAL

169 
WWUS53 KJKL 301218
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
718 AM EST WED JAN 30 2013

KYC125-147-199-203-231-235-301228-
/O.EXP.KJKL.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-130130T1215Z/
MCCREARY KY-PULASKI KY-ROCKCASTLE KY-WAYNE KY-WHITLEY KY-LAUREL KY-
718 AM EST WED JAN 30 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN LAUREL...WESTERN
WHITLEY...SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE...ROCKCASTLE...EASTERN PULASKI AND
MCCREARY COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE
WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 3662 8477 3694 8460 3726 8450 3735 8447
      3744 8445 3748 8438 3754 8435 3754 8429
      3752 8427 3753 8424 3752 8423 3701 8410
      3659 8418
TIME...MOT...LOC 1144Z 274DEG 39KT 3750 8423 3701 8439
          3662 8461

$$

HAL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
250 AM EST WED JAN 30 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EST WED JAN 30 2013

THE FOCUS OF THE FIRST THREE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE
EVOLUTION AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A LINE OF SHOWERS AND VERY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
KENTUCKY...INDIANA...AND WESTERN TENNESSEE. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WAYNE...PULASKI...ROCKCASTLE...POWELL...
BATH...AND FLEMING COUNTIES BETWEEN 6 AND 7 AM TODAY. THESE STORMS
HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 55 AND 75 MPH IN
INDIANA SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY...WITH WHATS LEFT OF THE LINE EXITING THE AREA INTO VIRGINIA
AND WEST VIRGINIA BETWEEN 6 AND 7 PM THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
FROM THESE STORMS COULD ALSO LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...
ESPECIALLY IF MULTIPLE STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE SAME LOCATIONS. THE
FORECAST MODELS HAVE ALL BEEN TOO SLOW IN THEIR EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THIS LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...SO THE FORECAST GRIDS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED TO REFLECT THE REAL TIME TRENDS...WHICH HAS THE STORMS
MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY ABOUT 3 HOURS FASTER THAN THE MODEL
DATA IS SUGGESTING.

THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY WILL BE STRONG WINDS THAT WILL BE OCCURRING
OUTSIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. WITH WINDS BLOWING AS HIGH AS 50-60KTS
AT 2.5-3K ABOVE THE SURFACE...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR 35-45
MPH WINDS TO REACH THE GROUND ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE HIGHER
RIDGES ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO THESE WINDS AND
GUSTS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 50 TO 55 MPH AT
TIMES. A SERIES OF WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE
STRONG WINDS AND WILL BE IN AFFECT THROUGH 10PM AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
RESPECTIVELY. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO LATE THIS
MORNING...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALSO CONTINUES TO INCREASE. TODAYS HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO EVEN UPPER 60S ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. TODAYS HIGHS WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE FRONT PASSES BY. ONCE THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY AFTER ROUGHLY 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON...
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

ANOTHER COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S EXPECTED AND HIGHS ONLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S ON THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
FRONT WILL MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW LATER TONIGHT...AS
THE COLD AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EST WED JAN 30 2013

THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE BUSY...WITH A NUMBER OF WX
MAKERS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED THROUGHOUT THE TIME
FRAME...SO ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY GIVEN
SYSTEM. TAKING THE ACTIVE AND RAPID FLOW REGIME INTO ACCOUNT...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT.

THE FIRST SYSTEM IS AN IMPULSE ROTATING THROUGH THE LARGER SCALE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH...ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH A
REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AIR. THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AND SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO FALL AS SNOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING PLENTIFUL LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES EXTENDING AT LEAST UP TO THE -10C LEVEL...AND MOISTURE
EXTENDING INTO THE INVERSION ABOVE. THAT BEING THE CASE...IT LOOKS
LIKE A COMBINATION OF SNOW SHOWERS AND STRATIFORM LIGHT SNOW.
INHERITED LIKELY POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED...AND WILL RAISE TO
70 PERCENT IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR THE VA BORDER.

YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS SLATED FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS TIME THERE COULD BE ENOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FOR PRECIP TO FALL AT LEAST PARTLY AS RAIN...ESPECIALLY IN OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST CHANCE POPS AT THIS
POINT...DUE TO MORE UNCERTAINTY AT THE LONGER FORECAST TIME...AND
THE 12Z 1-29-2013 RUN OF THE ECMWF SHOWING ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIP
COMPARED TO THE 00Z 1-30-2013 GFS.

A THIRD COLD FRONT IS SHOWN TO APPROACH MONDAY AND PASS MONDAY
NIGHT. WITH STILL MORE TIME TO LAPSE BEFORE THE EVENT...AND THIS
TIME THE 00Z 1-30-2013 RUN OF THE GFS BEING VERY LIGHT WITH PRECIP
COMPARED TO THE 12Z 1-29-2013 ECMWF...WILL ONLY USE 20-30 PERCENT
POPS. MODELS DO AGREE ON ENOUGH WARMING FOR PRIMARILY RAIN WITH THIS
THIRD SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM EST WED JAN 30 2013

THE PRIMARY CONCERN TO BEGIN TO TAF PERIOD WILL BE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR. THE LATEST WIND PROFILES ARE SHOWING 45 TO 50KT WINDS AT 2.5K
AGL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH EVER INCREASING WINDS ALREADY
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WAS
FEATURED IN THE TAFS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE NEXT AREA OF
CONCERN WILL BE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN AFFECTING LOZ AND SME BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z IN THE MORNING.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LINE OF
STORMS WILL MOVE PAST JKL BETWEEN 14 AND 17Z. WINDS OUTSIDE THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
WELL...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 22Z.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVE THROUGH. IFR CONDITIONS OR WORSE WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE MOST INTENSE STORMS DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE WINDS. VSBYS
COULD DROP TO AROUND ONE QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES DURING THE MOST
INTENSE RAINFALL WITH CIGS DOWN TO 1.5K OR LOWER.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>085.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR KYZ087-088-118-120.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
KYZ086-104-106>117-119.

&&

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM....HAL
AVIATION...AR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
404 PM EST TUE JAN 29 2013

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>085-301200-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG
404 PM EST TUE JAN 29 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
GUST TO BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...WITH A SLIGHT RISK THAT
SOME OF THEM COULD BE SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL WITH MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION TO THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH AT TIMES FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IS LIKELY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE
DURING THIS PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY.

KYZ086-104-106>117-119-301200-
KNOX-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-MARTIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BARBOURVILLE...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...
PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...
JACKSON...HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...INEZ
404 PM EST TUE JAN 29 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT. WINDS MAY GUST AS
HIGH AS 35 MPH TOWARD DAWN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...WITH A SLIGHT RISK THAT
SOME OF THEM COULD BE SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL WITH MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION TO THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...STRONG SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 40 AND
50 MPH AT TIMES FROM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IS LIKELY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE
DURING THIS PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY.

KYZ087-088-118-120-301200-
BELL-HARLAN-LETCHER-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...HARLAN...
WHITESBURG...PIKEVILLE
404 PM EST TUE JAN 29 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 40
AND 50 MPH AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET.
SOME ISOLATED GUSTS TO THESE SPEEDS MAY ALSO OCCUR DOWNWIND OF
PINE AND BLACK MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...WITH A SLIGHT RISK THAT
SOME OF THEM COULD BE SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL WITH MINOR FLOODING
POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION TO THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH AT TIMES FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IS LIKELY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE
DURING THIS PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY.

JP/SHALLENBERGER