Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1040 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013

...SEVERE STORM AND HEAVY RAIN EVENT UNDERWAY...

.DISCUSSION...LINEAR COMPLEX OF STORMS EVOLVING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH ITS AIM SET ON OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST OF
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. FOCUS WILL BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
DMG WINDS AND TORNADOES AS THE PRIMARY RISKS WITH A SECONDARY RISK
FOR HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE.

BASED ON LATEST SFC ANALYSIS AND RADAR TRENDS...ATMS IS GETTING
PRIMED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR A DECENT SVR EVENT. LOCATIONS
THAT CAN SEE 62-64 SFC DEWPT FOR THE REST OF TODAY WILL HAVE THE
MAIN SVR POTENTIAL AS THIS WILL SUPPORT SFC BASED CONVECTION. LATEST
INDICATIONS IS THAT SUCH SFC MOISTURE WILL NOT MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH
IN ADVANCE OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE AS EARLIER THOUGHT. DUE TO
THIS...SVR RISK ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/3RD IS LIMITED...FOCUS HERE IS
MORE ON HVY RAIN WITH SOME STRONG WINDS AND LOW END HAIL. THE I-20
CORRIDOR AND THE SW/S-CENTRAL SEEM MORE PRIMED TO GET THE
COLLOCATED SFC BASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE LINE TO REALIZED THE
POTENTIAL AND SEE THE MAIN SVR WX. TIMING OF THIS EVENT FITS WELL
WITH MAX SFC HEATING ACROSS AND THE COLLOCATION OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND HIGH WIND SHEAR. THE BULLSEYE OF THE BEST PARAMETERS
WILL BE JUST TO THE SW/S OF THE CWA TODAY WITH PLACES MY SOUTHERN
1/2 IN THE PRIME (NORTHERN GRADIENT) OF ALL THE MAIN SVR WX
INGREDIENTS. THIS ALSO IS SUPPORTED BY RADAR TRENDS. THE SE PART OF
THE CWA IS MORE OF A CHALLENGE AS THE BEST LIFT LOOKS TO LIFT AWAY
FROM THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE WELL ORGANIZED QLCS MAY MAKE UP FOR
THAT. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP A SVR RISK GOING FOR THAT AREA...BUT
HAVE IT A NOTCH BELOW WHAT WE ARE EXPECTING FOR THE CENTRAL AND SW
AREAS.

DISCRETE ACTIVITY IN ADVANCE OF THE LINE MAY BE TOUGH TO COME BY
BASED OFF LATEST DATA. HOWEVER...THE QLCS NATURE OF THE LINE IS
WORRISOME AS IT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS A PRIMED ATMS. THIS LINE WILL
POSE BOTH A DMG WIND/TOR RISK WITH EVENT A STRONG TORNADO POSSIBLE
WITH THE MOST NASTY BOWING LINE SEGMENTS THAT EVOLVE. A HIGH END
WIND GUST IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE LATEST GRAPHICAST ILLUSTRATES OUR
LATEST THINKING WITH THE MAIN TIMING BROKEN DOWN.

AS FOR HEAVY RAIN...THIS ACTIVITY IS VERY EFFICIENT AND IS PRODUCING
1-2 INCHES IN AN HOUR OR LESS. WE ARE BEING SAVED BY THE FACT THAT
THE LINE IS PROGRESSIVE. IF ANY SEGMENT SLOWS/HANGS UP...THEN THE
RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL DRAMATICALLY INCREASE. WE WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE TRACE CORRIDOR AS THAT MAY BE A ZONE WHERE THE
BEST RAINS MAY BE. DUE TO THIS...PULLED SOME HIGHER QPF BACK TO THE
SW. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF MVFR/IFR/LIFR ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. LINE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING ACROSS LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF
THE MS RIVER. SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS LINE MOVING ACROSS THE REST OF
THE REGION. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES TODAY THROUGH 00Z. KHBG/KPIB AND MAYBE KMEI WONT SEE THE
HEAVIEST STORMS UNTIL AFTER 00Z. REDUCED VIS AND CEILINGS WILL
PREVAIL DURING ALL STORMS...ESPECIALLY +TSRA. COLD FROPA WILL MOVE
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING MOSTLY TO KGLH/KGWO BY
06Z. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  49  58  46 / 100  80  45  40
MERIDIAN      68  52  61  44 / 100 100  56  51
VICKSBURG     72  48  58  47 / 100  56  43  47
HATTIESBURG   72  59  63  48 / 100 100  69  91
NATCHEZ       72  49  62  46 / 100  74  67  76
GREENVILLE    71  42  58  42 / 100  19  18  22
GREENWOOD     70  45  60  43 / 100  45  18  22

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>066-072>074.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>026.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

CME/28/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED WORDING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
617 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>053-059-060-
111230-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-JEFFERSON-
ADAMS-
617 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST...WEST...AND CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA AS A POTENT WEATHER DISTURBANCE SWINGS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...TORNADOES AND HAIL. A COUPLE OF
STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...HIGH RAINFALL RATES
WILL POSE A FLASH FLOODING RISK AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR ENTIRE THE REGION. THE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN RISK
WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE GULF COAST EARLY MONDAY BRINGING
A RISK FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY AS SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY. AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAINFALL DURING THIS
TIME...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AND EVENTUAL
RIVER FLOODING.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS WILL BE NEEDED TODAY.

MSZ054>058-061>066-072>074-111230-
COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
617 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A POTENT
WEATHER DISTURBANCE SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MOST INTENSE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...TORNADOES
AND HAIL. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES COULD BE STRONG. IN ADDITION...VERY
HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FOR TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING. THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE GULF COAST EARLY MONDAY BRINGING
A RISK FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY AS DISTURBANCES
INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY. AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 COULD SEE AN
ADDITIONAL TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME...WHICH
WOULD CONTINUE THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AND EVENTUAL RIVER
FLOODING.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS WILL BE NEEDED TODAY AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

ALLEN/EC

LAZ009-MSZ034-040-101635-
WASHINGTON MS-ISSAQUENA MS-EAST CARROLL LA-
952 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
952 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE
HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 12 MILES WEST OF
GREENVILLE TO 11 MILES WEST OF SHELBURN AT 952 AM CST...MOVING EAST
AT 60 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN ISSAQUENA AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES...AND
NORTHERN EAST CARROLL PARISH SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3327 9076 3320 9068 3310 9068 3309 9091
      3284 9096 3280 9134 3300 9127 3300 9117
      3304 9112 3313 9120 3315 9108 3328 9104
      3324 9110 3335 9114 3345 9106 3338 9114
      3344 9123 3342 9117 3345 9112 3349 9076
TIME...MOT...LOC 1552Z 263DEG 54KT 3336 9116 3311 9119
          3288 9133

DHB

MSZ035-036-041-042-101710-
SHARKEY MS-HUMPHREYS MS-HOLMES MS-YAZOO MS-
1041 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1041 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE
HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 3 MILES EAST OF ISOLA TO
10 MILES WEST OF HOLLY BLUFF AT 1042 AM CST...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN YAZOO...HOLMES...HUMPHREYS AND NORTHERN SHARKEY
COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3333 9046 3327 9046 3324 9042 3324 9037
      3328 9037 3332 9032 3330 9004 3324 8984
      3275 9027 3282 9093 3310 9072 3310 9068
      3312 9070 3327 9059 3327 9056 3333 9054
TIME...MOT...LOC 1642Z 274DEG 50KT 3325 9047 3287 9081

DHB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1134 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1108 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NE YAZOO CITY         32.90N 90.36W
02/10/2013                   YAZOO              MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ACROSS CARSON RD

&&

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1135 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CROSSETT                33.13N 91.97W
02/10/2013                   ASHLEY             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN IN CROSSETT

&&

CME

MSZ027-032-037-038-043>045-048>050-053-056-101815-
ATTALA MS-WINSTON MS-SMITH MS-SCOTT MS-RANKIN MS-NESHOBA MS-
MADISON MS-LEAKE MS-HINDS MS-CLAIBORNE MS-CHOCTAW MS-CARROLL MS-
1135 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1135 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN
WAS LOCATED FROM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF HESTERVILLE TO 18 MILES WEST OF
ROCKY SPRINGS AT 1135 AM CST...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL...SOUTH CENTRAL CHOCTAW...
NORTHEASTERN CLAIBORNE...HINDS...LEAKE...MADISON...NORTHWESTERN
NESHOBA...RANKIN...WESTERN SCOTT...NORTHWESTERN SMITH...WESTERN
WINSTON AND ATTALA COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3204 8968 3209 9105 3215 9077 3218 9079
      3221 9074 3230 9070 3234 9071 3234 9063
      3250 9058 3275 9004 3283 9002 3293 8990
      3323 8975 3325 8906
TIME...MOT...LOC 1735Z 270DEG 54KT 3320 8968 3300 8987
          3206 9110

MRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1148 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1056 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E EAGLE BEND          32.52N 90.97W
02/10/2013                   WARREN             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SOME TREES HAD TOPS BROKEN OFF.

&&

CME