Flash Flood Warning 30, NWS Jackson, MS

461 
WGUS74 KJAN 102353
FFSJAN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
553 PM CST SUN FEB 10 2013

MSC065-077-085-110030-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.W.0030.000000T0000Z-130211T0030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LINCOLN MS-LAWRENCE MS-JEFFERSON DAVIS MS-
553 PM CST SUN FEB 10 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CST FOR
JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAWRENCE AND SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTIES...

AT 552 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
DETECT THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN NEAR ROBINWOOD...OR 20
MILES NORTH OF KOKOMO. THE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. ESTIMATED 
RADAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ON THE ORDER OF ONE TO THREE INCHES...HAVE 
OCCURRED IN THE PAST HOUR.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO EAST
LINCOLN...WANILLA...ARM...PROGRESS...CARSON...CLEM...HEBRON...
PRENTISS AND MONTICELLO

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WARNED AREA FOR THE NEXT
HOUR. WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO THREE INCHES POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF HIGHWAYS
AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO
FLOODING.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS
MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3134 9063 3136 9064 3142 9063 3177 8988
      3177 8975 3161 8975 3158 8970 3155 8962
      3151 8959 3144 8959 3144 8982 3139 9004
      3134 9020

$$

MRM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
422 PM CST SUN FEB 10 2013

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ACTIVE DAY ONGOING WITH A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS AND AN UPTICK IN TORNADO WARNINGS.
THE MOST SEVERE ACTIVITY IS MOSTLY SOUTH OF I-20 WHERE THE BETTER
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND HELICITY IS LOCATED. THIS IS ALSO SOUTH
OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH IS ROUGHLY CUTTING ACROSS THE I-59 CORRIDOR
UP THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. STORMS ACROSS THE PINE BELT HAVE
DEVELOPED AND CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO AIR CHARACTERIZED BY 600-800
M2/S2 HELICITY VALUES. MODERATE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS
MOSTLY FOUND NORTH OF I-20. CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING WEST OF THE MS
RIVER AS THE BULK OF THE RAIN HAS MOVED EAST OF THERE. THE COLD
FRONT IS STILL FURTHER WEST AND JUST TO THE EAST OF SHREVEPORT. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE EAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THAT THE
FRONT WILL STALL AROUND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATER TONIGHT. THIS
WILL HELP TO KEEP SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PINE BELT REGION. CURRENT FLASH
FLOOD WATCH EXPIRES AT 00Z FOR SOME LOCATIONS. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
LOCATED WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS FALLING NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL THROUGH THE EVENING AND POTENTIALLY OVERNIGHT. SOME LOCATIONS
MAY GET TRIMMED THIS EVENING AS HEAVIEST RAIN SHIFTS SOUTH.
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-20 FROM ABOUT NATCHEZ TO PORTIONS OF THE I-59
CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN UNDER THE WATCH THROUGH 12Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR
1-2 INCHES ADDITIONAL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER.

THINKING REMAINS SIMILAR AS PREVIOUS FORECASTS IN THAT THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT BOTH MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE IS A RATHER SUBTLE SHORTWAVE BUT THIS
SHOULD BRING THE FIRST ROUND OF RAINFALL ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE REGION. THE FAR NORTHERN DELTA
MAY BE THE DRIEST OF THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN EVEN
STRONGER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BRINGING THE LAST BOUT OF
RAIN(AND EVEN POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS) TO THE REGION. WITH
1.2-1.5 INCH PW VALUES STILL PRESENT ACROSS THE MAINLY I-20 AND
SOUTH...THIS SHOULD EFFICIENTLY DELIVER AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES OF
RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST LOCATION TO SEE MOST OF THIS
HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 AND AN EXTENSION TO THE
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THESE LOCATIONS.
THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG SOUTH MS AND TRACK UP THROUGH ALABAMA
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WESTERN TN AND
NORTHERN MS. SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE  BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
WED-THU. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL DIG
SOUTHWARD THU-FRI AND SEND VERY CHILLY AIR INTO THE ARKLAMISS FOR
THE WEEKEND. SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THIS WINTER SEASON
ARE EXPECTED. /28/EC/

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ONGOING TO THIS AFTERNOON AS
LARGE SWATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. THE MAIN AXIS OF RAIN IS NOW ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THIS REGION THROUGH THE
EVENING AND SLOW SHIFT SOUTH. MAIN TAF SITES AFFECTED THROUGH 12Z
FROM SHRA/TSRA WILL BE KMEI/KHBG/KPIB. KJAN AND KGTR WILL BE AFFECTED
THROUGH 02Z. VIS COULD BE REDUCED TO 1/4SM IN +TSRA AND CEILINGS WILL
GO BELOW 1KFT. CLEARING OF RAIN AT KGLH/KGWO BUT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE
REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       52  60  44  55 /  68  81  53  88
MERIDIAN      55  59  44  54 /  96  92  68  90
VICKSBURG     49  60  45  55 /  52  66  45  85
HATTIESBURG   61  62  48  58 /  96  92  85  86
NATCHEZ       51  57  48  58 /  72  83  82  88
GREENVILLE    44  56  43  55 /  12  34  19  84
GREENWOOD     46  57  44  55 /  25  39  23  84

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MSZ054>066-072>074.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ043>053.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ025-026.

AR...NONE.
&&

28/EC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED WORDING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
617 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>053-059-060-
111230-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-JEFFERSON-
ADAMS-
617 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST...WEST...AND CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA AS A POTENT WEATHER DISTURBANCE SWINGS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...TORNADOES AND HAIL. A COUPLE OF
STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...HIGH RAINFALL RATES
WILL POSE A FLASH FLOODING RISK AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR ENTIRE THE REGION. THE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN RISK
WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE GULF COAST EARLY MONDAY BRINGING
A RISK FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY AS SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY. AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAINFALL DURING THIS
TIME...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AND EVENTUAL
RIVER FLOODING.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS WILL BE NEEDED TODAY.

MSZ054>058-061>066-072>074-111230-
COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
617 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A POTENT
WEATHER DISTURBANCE SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MOST INTENSE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...TORNADOES
AND HAIL. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES COULD BE STRONG. IN ADDITION...VERY
HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FOR TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING. THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE GULF COAST EARLY MONDAY BRINGING
A RISK FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY AS DISTURBANCES
INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY. AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 COULD SEE AN
ADDITIONAL TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME...WHICH
WOULD CONTINUE THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AND EVENTUAL RIVER
FLOODING.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS WILL BE NEEDED TODAY AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

ALLEN/EC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
251 PM CST SUN FEB 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1047 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 N TALLULAH            32.47N 91.19W
02/10/2013                   MADISON            LA   UTILITY COMPANY

            POWER LINES DOWN

0140 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S RAYMOND             32.22N 90.42W
02/10/2013                   HINDS              MS   UTILITY COMPANY

            POWER LINES DOWN

&&

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
313 PM CST SUN FEB 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FERRIDAY                31.63N 91.56W
02/10/2013                   CONCORDIA          LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN IN TOWN

&&

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
318 PM CST SUN FEB 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SCOOBA                  32.83N 88.48W
02/10/2013                   KEMPER             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER LINE DOWN

&&

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
328 PM CST SUN FEB 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 NW FLOWOOD            32.37N 90.17W
02/10/2013                   HINDS              MS   PUBLIC

            FLOODING REPORTED ON FOREST AVE AND WOODLAND AVE IN
            JACKSON

&&

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
356 PM CST SUN FEB 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 W BRANDON             32.29N 90.08W
02/10/2013                   RANKIN             MS   PUBLIC

            FLOODING AT AUTRY ST AND SKYLANE DR IN PEARL

0255 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SW JACKSON            32.26N 90.26W
02/10/2013                   HINDS              MS   PUBLIC

            FLOODING REPORTED ON LONGWOOD DRIVE IN JACKSON

&&

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
402 PM CST SUN FEB 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0342 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE ARM                31.48N 89.98W
02/10/2013                   LAWRENCE           MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A HOME WAS DAMAGED AND TREES AND POWERLINES WERE DOWNED
            ALONG GW SMITH RD. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

&&

CME