Tornado Warning 30, NWS Jackson, MS

583 
WWUS54 KJAN 102250
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
450 PM CST SUN FEB 10 2013

MSC077-102300-
/O.CAN.KJAN.TO.W.0030.000000T0000Z-130210T2300Z/
LAWRENCE MS-
450 PM CST SUN FEB 10 2013

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR CENTRAL LAWRENCE COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE TORNADO WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE
COUNTY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST SUNDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3137 9024 3147 9025 3154 9024 3164 8998
      3153 8997 3152 8996 3151 8996 3140 8996
TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 252DEG 42KT 3150 8987

$$

BYB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1040 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013

...SEVERE STORM AND HEAVY RAIN EVENT UNDERWAY...

.DISCUSSION...LINEAR COMPLEX OF STORMS EVOLVING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH ITS AIM SET ON OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST OF
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. FOCUS WILL BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
DMG WINDS AND TORNADOES AS THE PRIMARY RISKS WITH A SECONDARY RISK
FOR HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE.

BASED ON LATEST SFC ANALYSIS AND RADAR TRENDS...ATMS IS GETTING
PRIMED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR A DECENT SVR EVENT. LOCATIONS
THAT CAN SEE 62-64 SFC DEWPT FOR THE REST OF TODAY WILL HAVE THE
MAIN SVR POTENTIAL AS THIS WILL SUPPORT SFC BASED CONVECTION. LATEST
INDICATIONS IS THAT SUCH SFC MOISTURE WILL NOT MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH
IN ADVANCE OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE AS EARLIER THOUGHT. DUE TO
THIS...SVR RISK ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/3RD IS LIMITED...FOCUS HERE IS
MORE ON HVY RAIN WITH SOME STRONG WINDS AND LOW END HAIL. THE I-20
CORRIDOR AND THE SW/S-CENTRAL SEEM MORE PRIMED TO GET THE
COLLOCATED SFC BASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE LINE TO REALIZED THE
POTENTIAL AND SEE THE MAIN SVR WX. TIMING OF THIS EVENT FITS WELL
WITH MAX SFC HEATING ACROSS AND THE COLLOCATION OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND HIGH WIND SHEAR. THE BULLSEYE OF THE BEST PARAMETERS
WILL BE JUST TO THE SW/S OF THE CWA TODAY WITH PLACES MY SOUTHERN
1/2 IN THE PRIME (NORTHERN GRADIENT) OF ALL THE MAIN SVR WX
INGREDIENTS. THIS ALSO IS SUPPORTED BY RADAR TRENDS. THE SE PART OF
THE CWA IS MORE OF A CHALLENGE AS THE BEST LIFT LOOKS TO LIFT AWAY
FROM THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE WELL ORGANIZED QLCS MAY MAKE UP FOR
THAT. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP A SVR RISK GOING FOR THAT AREA...BUT
HAVE IT A NOTCH BELOW WHAT WE ARE EXPECTING FOR THE CENTRAL AND SW
AREAS.

DISCRETE ACTIVITY IN ADVANCE OF THE LINE MAY BE TOUGH TO COME BY
BASED OFF LATEST DATA. HOWEVER...THE QLCS NATURE OF THE LINE IS
WORRISOME AS IT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS A PRIMED ATMS. THIS LINE WILL
POSE BOTH A DMG WIND/TOR RISK WITH EVENT A STRONG TORNADO POSSIBLE
WITH THE MOST NASTY BOWING LINE SEGMENTS THAT EVOLVE. A HIGH END
WIND GUST IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE LATEST GRAPHICAST ILLUSTRATES OUR
LATEST THINKING WITH THE MAIN TIMING BROKEN DOWN.

AS FOR HEAVY RAIN...THIS ACTIVITY IS VERY EFFICIENT AND IS PRODUCING
1-2 INCHES IN AN HOUR OR LESS. WE ARE BEING SAVED BY THE FACT THAT
THE LINE IS PROGRESSIVE. IF ANY SEGMENT SLOWS/HANGS UP...THEN THE
RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL DRAMATICALLY INCREASE. WE WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE TRACE CORRIDOR AS THAT MAY BE A ZONE WHERE THE
BEST RAINS MAY BE. DUE TO THIS...PULLED SOME HIGHER QPF BACK TO THE
SW. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF MVFR/IFR/LIFR ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. LINE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING ACROSS LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF
THE MS RIVER. SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS LINE MOVING ACROSS THE REST OF
THE REGION. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES TODAY THROUGH 00Z. KHBG/KPIB AND MAYBE KMEI WONT SEE THE
HEAVIEST STORMS UNTIL AFTER 00Z. REDUCED VIS AND CEILINGS WILL
PREVAIL DURING ALL STORMS...ESPECIALLY +TSRA. COLD FROPA WILL MOVE
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING MOSTLY TO KGLH/KGWO BY
06Z. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  49  58  46 / 100  80  45  40
MERIDIAN      68  52  61  44 / 100 100  56  51
VICKSBURG     72  48  58  47 / 100  56  43  47
HATTIESBURG   72  59  63  48 / 100 100  69  91
NATCHEZ       72  49  62  46 / 100  74  67  76
GREENVILLE    71  42  58  42 / 100  19  18  22
GREENWOOD     70  45  60  43 / 100  45  18  22

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>066-072>074.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>026.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

CME/28/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED WORDING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
617 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>053-059-060-
111230-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-JEFFERSON-
ADAMS-
617 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST...WEST...AND CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA AS A POTENT WEATHER DISTURBANCE SWINGS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...TORNADOES AND HAIL. A COUPLE OF
STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...HIGH RAINFALL RATES
WILL POSE A FLASH FLOODING RISK AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR ENTIRE THE REGION. THE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN RISK
WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE GULF COAST EARLY MONDAY BRINGING
A RISK FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY AS SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY. AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAINFALL DURING THIS
TIME...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AND EVENTUAL
RIVER FLOODING.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS WILL BE NEEDED TODAY.

MSZ054>058-061>066-072>074-111230-
COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
617 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A POTENT
WEATHER DISTURBANCE SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MOST INTENSE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...TORNADOES
AND HAIL. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES COULD BE STRONG. IN ADDITION...VERY
HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FOR TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING. THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE GULF COAST EARLY MONDAY BRINGING
A RISK FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY AS DISTURBANCES
INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY. AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 COULD SEE AN
ADDITIONAL TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME...WHICH
WOULD CONTINUE THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AND EVENTUAL RIVER
FLOODING.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS WILL BE NEEDED TODAY AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

ALLEN/EC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
251 PM CST SUN FEB 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1047 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 N TALLULAH            32.47N 91.19W
02/10/2013                   MADISON            LA   UTILITY COMPANY

            POWER LINES DOWN

0140 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S RAYMOND             32.22N 90.42W
02/10/2013                   HINDS              MS   UTILITY COMPANY

            POWER LINES DOWN

&&

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
313 PM CST SUN FEB 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FERRIDAY                31.63N 91.56W
02/10/2013                   CONCORDIA          LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN IN TOWN

&&

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
318 PM CST SUN FEB 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SCOOBA                  32.83N 88.48W
02/10/2013                   KEMPER             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER LINE DOWN

&&

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
328 PM CST SUN FEB 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 NW FLOWOOD            32.37N 90.17W
02/10/2013                   HINDS              MS   PUBLIC

            FLOODING REPORTED ON FOREST AVE AND WOODLAND AVE IN
            JACKSON

&&

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
356 PM CST SUN FEB 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 W BRANDON             32.29N 90.08W
02/10/2013                   RANKIN             MS   PUBLIC

            FLOODING AT AUTRY ST AND SKYLANE DR IN PEARL

0255 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SW JACKSON            32.26N 90.26W
02/10/2013                   HINDS              MS   PUBLIC

            FLOODING REPORTED ON LONGWOOD DRIVE IN JACKSON

&&

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
402 PM CST SUN FEB 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0342 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE ARM                31.48N 89.98W
02/10/2013                   LAWRENCE           MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A HOME WAS DAMAGED AND TREES AND POWERLINES WERE DOWNED
            ALONG GW SMITH RD. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

&&

CME