Severe Thunderstorm Warning 347, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
315 PM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
MID MS VALLEY AND A STOUT HEAT RIDGE SENDS TEMPS ACROSS THE DESERT
SW TOWARD ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS. A COOL FRONT BISECTING THE CENTER
OF THE ARKLAMISS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH USHERING
IN DRIER AND A TAD COOLER AIR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY WANES HEADED INTO THE EVENING. GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT/MORNING WILL ALLOW INSOLATION TO DEVELOP
WEAK/MODERATE INSTABILITY DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS
SUN AND MON...PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONES IN VICINITY
OF THE UPPER LOW...WHERE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY VERY WELL POP UP. LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LOWER OR
UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL KEEP CONVECTION DIURNAL IN NATURE.

A WELCOME CHANGE IN DAYTIME HIGHS WILL COMMENCE ON MONDAY AS TEMPS
ONLY REACH THE MID/POSSIBLY UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S SUN AND MON NIGHTS WILL BE A NICE CHANGE AS WELL. /BK/

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE AXIS OF AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH EARLY TO MID
WEEK...RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY LOW DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES AND MILD
TEMPERATURES. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND DRY LOW LEVEL ADVECTION IN
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND HAVE REDUCED MEX
GUIDANCE POPS A BIT IN SOME CASES FOR TUESDAY...BUT CYCLONIC FLOW
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP INDUCE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR.

WEDNESDAY/INDEPENDENCE DAY/FRIDAY...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE THUS EVENTUALLY PLACING THE FORECAST AREA IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHEAST MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE GREATEST MOISTURE
FLUX IS ANTICIPATED ON INDEPENDENCE DAY AND WE WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR A GREATER INCREASE IN DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE THAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING...PARTICULARLY FOR THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.
LARGER SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET (~ 90- 100 KT) COULD ALSO SET UP
OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND HELP TO INCREASE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
AND PERHAPS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO ~ 2 INCHES...BUT THE RISK FOR STRONG
STORMS DOES NOT LOOK GREAT AT THIS TIME. THIS MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...A FRONT JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AT 20Z WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PREVALENT
UNTIL SUNSET OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE REGION. THE FRONT WL SLOW
DOWN AROUND KHBG THIS EVENING AND PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION BY
EARLY SUNDAY. AWAY FROM TSTM ACTIVITY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING. FROM PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITY DUE TO PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       65  90  65  85 /   5   7  12  14
MERIDIAN      63  90  64  87 /   5   8  14  16
VICKSBURG     63  88  63  86 /   4   7   9  11
HATTIESBURG   67  92  66  90 /  14   5   7  18
NATCHEZ       66  87  64  84 /  11   4   5  10
GREENVILLE    67  86  64  83 /   4  18  14  16
GREENWOOD     64  85  62  83 /   5  18  15  17

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

BK/EC/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
245 PM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
301945-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
245 PM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

17

MSZ056-057-292100-
SMITH MS-JASPER MS-
328 PM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
328 PM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF TURNERVILLE AT 328 PM CDT...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN JASPER AND EAST CENTRAL SMITH COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3210 8898 3184 8924 3208 8942 3221 8931
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 304DEG 18KT 3208 8927

MRM

MSZ060-061-292100-
ADAMS MS-FRANKLIN MS-
331 PM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
331 PM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON AT 331 PM CDT...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN AND EAST CENTRAL ADAMS COUNTIES
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3134 9115 3135 9121 3137 9122 3136 9125
      3136 9127 3135 9128 3135 9130 3134 9136
      3149 9124 3143 9102 3132 9109 3132 9112
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 297DEG 17KT 3137 9122

MRM

MSZ063-064-072-292120-
MARION MS-LAWRENCE MS-JEFFERSON DAVIS MS-
352 PM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
352 PM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED OVER OAK VALE AT 352 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON DAVIS...SOUTHEASTERN LAWRENCE AND
NORTHWESTERN MARION COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3147 8971 3123 8995 3141 9008 3155 8995
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 309DEG 16KT 3142 8993

MRM

MSZ064-072-292145-
MARION MS-JEFFERSON DAVIS MS-
415 PM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
415 PM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED OVER SOCIETY HILL AT 415 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON DAVIS AND NORTHERN MARION COUNTIES
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3134 9000 3139 8997 3139 8996 3141 8996
      3151 8991 3139 8966 3117 8980
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 303DEG 16KT 3135 8982

MRM

MSZ066-292215-
JONES MS-
443 PM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
443 PM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF MOSELLE AT 443 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL JONES COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3151 8936 3166 8927 3160 8906 3143 8914
      3144 8924
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 297DEG 16KT 3154 8925

MRM

MSZ073-074-292225-
LAMAR MS-FORREST MS-
456 PM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
456 PM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF RAWLS SPRINGS AT 456 PM CDT...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN FORREST AND NORTHERN LAMAR COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3132 8964 3144 8949 3143 8940 3145 8940
      3143 8940 3144 8937 3143 8928 3120 8946
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 297DEG 16KT 3142 8945

MRM