Severe Thunderstorm Warning 345, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
947 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013

.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF
A COOL FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CWA LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH...TO THE LOWER
70S IN THE SOUTH. AS FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIMING OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. /27/

&&

.AVIATION...A LINE OF TSTMS EXTENDING E-W IN THE VICINITY OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR AT 02Z WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SWD ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. THESE STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE...WILL PRODUCE
IFR/MVFR CIGS AND LCL LIFR VSBYS. CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE AS
THE BAND PASSES. THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD EXIT SRN ZONES BY 05Z.
AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE 09Z-13Z WITH OCNL MVFR VSBYS.
ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SRN ZONES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013/

SHORT TERM...
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
STORMS EARLIER THIS MORNING IN NORTHERN MS AND ALSO ON THE
CONVERGENCE AXIS OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL AR.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON TO EVENING AS INCREASING LIFT AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND
FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT. OVERALL
POPS FOR TONIGHT STAYED CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE BUT HAD TO INCREASE
POPS SLIGHTLY UP IN THE NW DUE TO APPROACHING LIFT FROM UPPER
DISTURBANCE/COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION. HI-RES GUIDANCE DOES
INDICATE MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT AS CAPPING ERODES TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SEEMED IN GOOD AGREEMENT
OVERNIGHT FOR LOWS AND WENT CLOSE TO MAV. ALSO INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR CLOUDS FROM NW/SE TONIGHT AFTER
00Z SATURDAY AND SHOULD BE CLEAR OF MOST OF THE AREA BY AROUND 12Z
SATURDAY. HOWEVER..THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AND SOME CLOUD
COVER/SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG/SE OF A LINE
FROM MCCOMB TO MERIDIAN.

DEEP UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION AND
~100KT H3 JET WILL GRADUALLY PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD..AIDING IN DEEPENING
THE UPPER TROUGH AND LEADING TO HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE ARKLAMISS
REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. H5 UPPER WAVE WILL INCREASE ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND LEAD TO SOME CLOUDS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO MAV IN THE LOW/MID
90S ON SATURDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG AREAS IN THE NORTH.
THIS WAVE WILL ALSO HELP CLEAR THE COLD FRONT OUT OF THE REGION BY
SUNDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE SEEMS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE FRONT BEGINS TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY 00Z SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WHICH IS NEAR
A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. INCREASING TROUGHING AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT FROM UPPER WAVES IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE
CLOUD COVER IN THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY. ANOMALOUSLY LOW
HEIGHTS/DECREASING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S IN THE NORTH TO LOW 90S IN THE SOUTH.
INCREASING LIFT WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EVENING. INCREASING MOISTURE AND VERTICAL
TOTALS APPROACHING 24-25 DEG C WILL SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN THE N/NE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN
BEFORE 00Z MONDAY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIGHT
SHOWERS/RAINFALL AT MOST. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION IS ATTACHED.
/DC/

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...SLIGHTLY TO DECENTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN CONUS WILL DEVELOP DUE TO STRONG BLOCKING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC LATITUDES TOWARDS THE ERN CANADIAN MARITIME. CIPS
ANALOGS CONTINUE TO SHOW -2 TO -2.5 STANDARD DEVIATION (STD) BELOW
NORMAL H5 HEIGHTS IN CONJUNCTION WITH -2 STD BELOW NORMAL H85 TEMPS
BEGINNING SUNDAY AND PERSISTING TO A VARYING DEGREE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY RETROGRADES WEST. THIS SET-UP WILL
CERTAINLY FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY 3-7F DEGREES SUN-WED
TIME-FRAME WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE.

PRECIPITATION WILL BE TRICKY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF AS FAR AS EXACT
TIMING WITH LOW-LVLS INITIALLY BEING LIMITED IN MOISTURE WITH PWATS
AOB 1" SUNDAY AND SLOWLY CREEP UP TO 1.3" INTO WEDNESDAY UNDER
CONTINUED NW FLOW. ALSO, THE POSITIONING THE TROUGH AXIS MAY BE A
TOUCH TOO FAR WEST SUNDAY INTO PORTIONS OF MONDAY TO REALIZE FULL
DYNAMIC LIFT WHICH WILL LIKELY BE FARTHER NE OF THE REGION. YET,
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY IN TO WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD
RETROGRADE WEST, PLACING REGION IN MORE FAVORABLE SW FLOW AND
ENTRANCE REGION OF H25 JET WITH BETTER LIFT VIA Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
SIGNALS. RAISED POPS ABOUT 10% OR SO IN LINE WITH THIS THINKING.

THE ANOMALOUS TROUGH WILL BACK AWAY FROM THE REGION TO THE WEST
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, ALLOWING FOR INCREASING H7-5 HEIGHTS BACK
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST. AS THIS OCCURS AND WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS, DEEP GULF MOISTURE LOOKS TO INFILTRATE
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS UP OVER 2", SETTING THE STAGE FOR
DECENT SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE LATE INTO NEXT WEEK. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  92  65  89 /  41  14   9  12
MERIDIAN      70  93  65  89 /  45  21  10  15
VICKSBURG     69  91  63  89 /  30   6   8  10
HATTIESBURG   74  95  67  91 /  39  41  12   9
NATCHEZ       72  90  65  89 /  28  16   6   5
GREENVILLE    70  91  67  84 /  13   6   9  17
GREENWOOD     69  90  66  85 /  13   5  10  19

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1032 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013

LAZ023>026-MSZ053>066-072>074-300345-
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-
SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
1032 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. THE MOST
INTENSE STORMS COULD CONTAIN 60 MPH WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. MANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... THE ACTIVATION OF STORM
SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED
THIS EVENING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

03

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1025 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PATTISON                31.89N 90.89W
06/28/2013                   CLAIBORNE          MS   PUBLIC

            TREES AND POWER LINES WERE DOWN.

&&

27

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1031 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S STARKVILLE          33.41N 88.82W
06/28/2013                   OKTIBBEHA          MS   PUBLIC

            OAK TREES SNAPPED AND A TRAMPOLINE BLOWN OVER A FENCE

0740 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EDINBURG                32.80N 89.34W
06/28/2013                   LEAKE              MS   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN IN THE EDINBURG AND MARYDELL COMMUNITIES IN
            LEAKE COUNTY

0825 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NNW MERIDIAN          32.45N 88.75W
06/28/2013                   LAUDERDALE         MS   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN ACROSS ROADS IN THE BAILEY COMMUNITY

&&

GERARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1032 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DERMOTT                 33.53N 91.44W
06/28/2013                   CHICOT             AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES...POWER LINES AND POWER POLES DOWN

0520 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EUPORA                  33.54N 89.28W
06/28/2013                   WEBSTER            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ON A HOUSE...POWER LINES DOWN

0548 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE SESSUMS            33.39N 88.68W
06/28/2013                   OKTIBBEHA          MS   PUBLIC

            A SMALL TREE WAS DOWN ON CRAWFORD ROAD NEAR THE CHAPEL
            HILL INTERSECTION. RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

0550 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S STARKVILLE          33.41N 88.82W
06/28/2013                   OKTIBBEHA          MS   PUBLIC

            OAK TREES SNAPPED AND A TRAMPOLINE BLOWN OVER A FENCE

0550 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE STARKVILLE         33.45N 88.81W
06/28/2013                   OKTIBBEHA          MS   PUBLIC

            NUMEROUS TREES WERE REPORTED DOWN ON OKTOC ROAD. RELAYED
            VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

0725 PM     TSTM WND DMG     9 NNE CANTON            32.73N 89.97W
06/28/2013                   MADISON            MS   UTILITY COMPANY

            POWERLINES DOWN

0730 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 ESE BASTROP           32.75N 91.83W
06/28/2013                   MOREHOUSE          LA   UTILITY COMPANY

            POWERLINES DOWN

0730 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W CANTON              32.61N 90.07W
06/28/2013                   MADISON            MS   UTILITY COMPANY

            POWERLINES DOWN

0740 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EDINBURG                32.80N 89.34W
06/28/2013                   LEAKE              MS   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN IN THE EDINBURG AND MARYDELL COMMUNITIES IN
            LEAKE COUNTY

0750 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 E PHILADELPHIA        32.77N 88.99W
06/28/2013                   NESHOBA            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN ACROSS ROADS IN EASTERN NESHOBA COUNTY

0812 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ENE COLLINSVILLE      32.51N 88.79W
06/28/2013                   LAUDERDALE         MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES DOWN AND POWER OUTAGES IN THE CENTER HILL COMMUNITY

0825 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NNW MERIDIAN          32.45N 88.75W
06/28/2013                   LAUDERDALE         MS   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN ACROSS ROADS IN THE BAILEY COMMUNITY

0850 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 S MERIDIAN            32.29N 88.71W
06/28/2013                   LAUDERDALE         MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES DOWN IN CLARKEDALE COMMUNITY NEAR US HIGHWAY 45

0900 PM     TSTM WND DMG     VICKSBURG               32.33N 90.87W
06/28/2013                   WARREN             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTS FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT AND AMATUER RADIO INDICATE
            WIDSPREAD WIND DAMAGE IN VICKSBURG AREA. NUMEROUS TREES
            AND POWERLINES DOWN ON ROADS...SIGNS AND TREES BLOWN DOWN
            ONTO INTERSTATE 20 BETWEEN BOVINA AND VICKSBURG...AND
            SOME ROOF DAMAGE

0910 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EDWARDS                 32.33N 90.60W
06/28/2013                   HINDS              MS   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL 2-4 INCH DIAMETER LIMBS DOWN ON HORDGE ROAD NEAR
            HIGHWAY 80.

0925 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RAYMOND                 32.26N 90.42W
06/28/2013                   HINDS              MS   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES REPORTED DOWN IN RAYMOND. BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTS
            WIND GUST TO 55 MPH ON TV ROAD SW SIDE OF JACKSON.

0945 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PATTISON                31.89N 90.89W
06/28/2013                   CLAIBORNE          MS   PUBLIC

            TREES AND POWER LINES WERE DOWN.

1000 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ST. JOSEPH              31.92N 91.24W
06/28/2013                   TENSAS             LA   UTILITY COMPANY

            POWERLINES DOWN IN AREA

&&

GERARD

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