Severe Thunderstorm Warning 331, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
458 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN NEAR/BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

.UPDATE...THE SRN TIER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NO. 385 HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. THE REGION OF BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION OVER ALABAMA IS SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE WATCH AREA.
NRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH WILL CONTINUE AS THEY ARE IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO STORMS THAT ARE PERSISTING ALONG THE REGION OF FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
STORMS EARLIER THIS MORNING IN NORTHERN MS AND ALSO ON THE
CONVERGENCE AXIS OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL AR.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON TO EVENING AS INCREASING LIFT AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND
FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT. OVERALL
POPS FOR TONIGHT STAYED CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE BUT HAD TO INCREASE
POPS SLIGHTLY UP IN THE NW DUE TO APPROACHING LIFT FROM UPPER
DISTURBANCE/COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION. HI-RES GUIDANCE DOES
INDICATE MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT AS CAPPING ERODES TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SEEMED IN GOOD AGREEMENT
OVERNIGHT FOR LOWS AND WENT CLOSE TO MAV. ALSO INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR CLOUDS FROM NW/SE TONIGHT AFTER
00Z SATURDAY AND SHOULD BE CLEAR OF MOST OF THE AREA BY AROUND 12Z
SATURDAY. HOWEVER..THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AND SOME CLOUD
COVER/SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG/SE OF A LINE
FROM MCCOMB TO MERIDIAN.

DEEP UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION AND
~100KT H3 JET WILL GRADUALLY PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD..AIDING IN DEEPENING
THE UPPER TROUGH AND LEADING TO HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE ARKLAMISS
REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. H5 UPPER WAVE WILL INCREASE ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND LEAD TO SOME CLOUDS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO MAV IN THE LOW/MID
90S ON SATURDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG AREAS IN THE NORTH.
THIS WAVE WILL ALSO HELP CLEAR THE COLD FRONT OUT OF THE REGION BY
SUNDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE SEEMS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE FRONT BEGINS TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY 00Z SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WHICH IS NEAR
A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. INCREASING TROUGHING AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT FROM UPPER WAVES IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE
CLOUD COVER IN THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY. ANOMALOUSLY LOW
HEIGHTS/DECREASING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S IN THE NORTH TO LOW 90S IN THE SOUTH.
INCREASING LIFT WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EVENING. INCREASING MOISTURE AND VERTICAL
TOTALS APPROACHING 24-25 DEG C WILL SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN THE N/NE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN
BEFORE 00Z MONDAY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIGHT
SHOWERS/RAINFALL AT MOST. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION IS ATTACHED.
/DC/

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...SLIGHTLY TO DECENTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN CONUS WILL DEVELOP DUE TO STRONG BLOCKING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC LATITUDES TOWARDS THE ERN CANADIAN MARITIME. CIPS
ANALOGS CONTINUE TO SHOW -2 TO -2.5 STANDARD DEVIATION (STD) BELOW
NORMAL H5 HEIGHTS IN CONJUNCTION WITH -2 STD BELOW NORMAL H85 TEMPS
BEGINNING SUNDAY AND PERSISTING TO A VARYING DEGREE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY RETROGRADES WEST. THIS SET-UP WILL
CERTAINLY FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY 3-7F DEGREES SUN-WED
TIME-FRAME WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE.

PRECIPITATION WILL BE TRICKY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF AS FAR AS EXACT
TIMING WITH LOW-LVLS INITIALLY BEING LIMITED IN MOISTURE WITH PWATS
AOB 1" SUNDAY AND SLOWLY CREEP UP TO 1.3" INTO WEDNESDAY UNDER
CONTINUED NW FLOW. ALSO, THE POSITIONING THE TROUGH AXIS MAY BE A
TOUCH TOO FAR WEST SUNDAY INTO PORTIONS OF MONDAY TO REALIZE FULL
DYNAMIC LIFT WHICH WILL LIKELY BE FARTHER NE OF THE REGION. YET,
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY IN TO WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD
RETROGRADE WEST, PLACING REGION IN MORE FAVORABLE SW FLOW AND
ENTRANCE REGION OF H25 JET WITH BETTER LIFT VIA Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
SIGNALS. RAISED POPS ABOUT 10% OR SO IN LINE WITH THIS THINKING.

THE ANOMALOUS TROUGH WILL BACK AWAY FROM THE REGION TO THE WEST
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, ALLOWING FOR INCREASING H7-5 HEIGHTS BACK
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST. AS THIS OCCURS AND WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS, DEEP GULF MOISTURE LOOKS TO INFILTRATE
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS UP OVER 2", SETTING THE STAGE FOR
DECENT SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE LATE INTO NEXT WEEK. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AS AFTERNOON
HEATING INTERACTS WITH RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WILL BRING LOCAL MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. A STORM AFFECTING A
SPECIFIC TAF SITE IS LOW CONFIDENCE BUT HAVE INCLUDED VCTS IN TAFS
AND AMENDMENTS NEEDED AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NW DELTA BY 09Z SAT AND AROUND HBG BY 21Z SAT. OUTSIDE
OF TSTM ACTIVITY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  92  65  89 /  30  14   9  12
MERIDIAN      70  93  65  89 /  38  21  10  15
VICKSBURG     69  91  63  89 /  27   6   8  10
HATTIESBURG   74  95  67  91 /  40  41  12   9
NATCHEZ       72  90  65  89 /  28  16   6   5
GREENVILLE    70  91  67  84 /  19   6   9  17
GREENWOOD     69  90  66  85 /  19   5  10  19

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

DC/ALLEN/28/03

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
258 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
292000-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
258 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS COULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS UP TO 60
MPH AS WELL AS HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. MANY STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

28

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MSZ043-048-049-290055-
RANKIN MS-MADISON MS-HINDS MS-
724 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
724 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013

...STRONG STORMS APPROACHING THE JACKSON METRO AREA...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE
HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM WAY TO 20 MILES
NORTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE AT 724 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS ARE INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN HINDS...MADISON AND NORTH CENTRAL RANKIN
COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3254 8979 3241 9005 3237 9056 3241 9061
      3244 9059 3248 9060 3250 9058 3251 9053
      3258 9044 3258 9040 3261 9034 3266 9028
      3266 9020 3270 9010 3275 9004 3281 9002
      3283 8998 3261 8977
TIME...MOT...LOC 0024Z 318DEG 27KT 3272 8998 3261 9029
          3258 9069

BK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
816 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE STARKVILLE         33.45N 88.81W
06/28/2013                   OKTIBBEHA          MS   PUBLIC

            NUMEROUS TREES WERE REPORTED DOWN ON OKTOC ROAD. RELAYED
            VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

27

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
830 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W CANTON              32.61N 90.07W
06/28/2013                   MADISON            MS   UTILITY COMPANY

            POWERLINES DOWN

0725 PM     TSTM WND DMG     9 NNE CANTON            32.73N 89.97W
06/28/2013                   MADISON            MS   UTILITY COMPANY

            POWERLINES DOWN

0730 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 ESE BASTROP           32.75N 91.83W
06/28/2013                   MOREHOUSE          LA   UTILITY COMPANY

            POWERLINES DOWN

&&

GERARD