Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1006 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

.DISCUSSION...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS...MAINLY IN THE EAST. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE
STEADY NEAR 70 FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE MAIN LINE SEEMS TO BE
ACCELERATING...SO COOLER TEMPS MAY MOVE INTO TH WESTERN ZONES A
LITTLE SOONER...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE TIME CLOSE TO 12Z. ADJUSTED
WIND ADVISORY TO EXTEND THE TIME TO 3Z. LOOKS LIKE THE GRADIENT
SHOULD HOLD BEYOND MIDNIGHT. IT WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS THE CWA.

MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ACROSS THE DELTA ON BOTH
SIDES OF THE RIVER...BUT A FEW STORMS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP TO THE
SOUTH. TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY STILL LOOKS GOOD. A NEW WATCH WILL BE
OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS RAPIDLY FILLING IN NEWD OVER THE CWFA.
FIRST BATCH OF SUPERCELLS LIFTING N OF OUR AREA HOWEVER MORE
PROLIFIC AXIS OF PRE-FRONTAL STORMS BUILDING INTO OUR WRN TIER AT
03Z. EXPECT DETERIORATING IFR CONDS WITH THE NUMEROUS STRONG/SEVERE
TSRA AS THE COLD FRONT ACCELERATES EWD TO MS RIVER 06-08Z AND
CROSSING I-55 08-11Z AND FINALLY THE MS/AL BORDER 11-14Z EXITING
THE ENTIRE CWFA BY 15Z. SUSTAINED S WINDS OF 15-25KTS WILL BE COMMON
WITH GUSTS OF 35KTS OVERNIGHT SHIFTING TO THE WSW WITH FROPA. VFR
BROKEN CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED ABOUT 3-4HRS AFTER THE WIND SHIFT WITH
STILL GUSTY WNW WINDS OF 15-25KTS 15Z-23Z WEDNESDAY./40/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       67  64  32  59 / 100  32  10   5
MERIDIAN      69  68  31  58 /  90  63  13   5
VICKSBURG     56  62  31  61 /  99  14   7   5
HATTIESBURG   69  67  33  59 /  87  63   9   5
NATCHEZ       57  61  31  60 /  98  13   7   5
GREENVILLE    56  55  31  58 / 100  14   5   5
GREENWOOD     58  61  30  59 / 100  15   8   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025>027-
     034>036-040>042-047.

LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023-025.

AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

7/40

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
315 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023-025-MSZ018-019-025>027-034>036-
040>042-047-302115-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-TENSAS-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-
CARROLL-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-
WARREN-
315 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
BRING WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS TO THE REGION ALONG WITH SOME
TORNADOES. DUE TO A RARE COMBINATION OF INTENSE WIND SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SOME HIGHER END SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE POSSIBLE INCLUDING WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
80 MPH AND A STRONG TORNADO. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 9PM
AND 3AM BEFORE MOVING EAST.

AHEAD OF THIS SEVERE WEATHER...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 AND 30 MPH WILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE ARKLAMISS WITH GUSTS REACHING 40 TO 45
MPH IN THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY LOCATIONS. THE WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

LAZ024-026-MSZ028>033-037>039-043>046-048>066-072>074-302115-
CATAHOULA-CONCORDIA-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-
OKTIBBEHA-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-
SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
315 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR  MOST OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING DAMAGING WINDS TO THE REGION ALONG
WITH SOME TORNADOES. DUE TO A RARE COMBINATION OF INTENSE WIND SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SOME HIGHER END SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE INCLUDING WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH AND A STRONG TORNADO. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN 9 PM AND 3 AM FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF INTERSTATE 55 AND BETWEEN
2 AND 7 AM FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 55.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

28

ARZ074-075-LAZ007-015-023-MSZ040-300610-
ASHLEY AR-CHICOT AR-ISSAQUENA MS-RICHLAND LA-MOREHOUSE LA-FRANKLIN
1123 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1123 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH
WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 17 MILES NORTH OF DERMOTT TO 24 MILES WEST OF
BUCKNER AT 1123 PM CST...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ISSAQUENA...CHICOT AND ASHLEY
COUNTIES...AND NORTH CENTRAL FRANKLIN...MOREHOUSE AND RICHLAND
PARISHES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3340 9174 3339 9147 3357 9145 3357 9124
      3338 9114 3341 9110 3345 9106 3305 9112
      3293 9121 3300 9116 3301 9143 3285 9157
      3267 9164 3257 9144 3218 9172 3224 9200
      3265 9192 3289 9209
TIME...MOT...LOC 0523Z 283DEG 35KT 3377 9136 3239 9230

BYB

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