Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1103 AM CST THU JAN 10 2013

.UPDATE...GOING FORECAST APPEARS IN DECENT SHAPE. UPPER LOW REMAINS
SPINNING ACROSS THE RED RIVER IN NORTHERN TEXAS. THIS WILL SLOWLY
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. COPIOUS MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS AND THE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. THE BETTER CONVECTION HAS BEEN MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN AREAS FROM GENERALLY HIGHWAY 84 AND SOUTH. DUE TO THIS AREA
OF CONVECTION...SOME OF THE NORTHERN LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN CUT OFF FROM
HEAVIER RAINFALL. IN THIS SOUTHERN AREA...SOME DOWNED TREES AND
POWERLINES HAVE OCCURRED THIS MORNING. SEVERE POTENTIAL HAS WANED
FOR THE TIME BEING BUT EXPECT THAT THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEASTERN/EASTERN COUNTIES THAT HAVE
BEEN ABLE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S ALREADY THIS MORNING.
INSTABILITY OTHERWISE IS ON THE LOW SIDE AND MUCAPE DEPICT ON SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AROUND 500J/KG IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ON THE WEAKER SIDE WITH SOME POCKETS OF BETTER
VALUES. LCL HEIGHTS ARE LOW AND HELICITIES AND WIND SHEAR REMAIN
SUFFICIENT TO HANG ON WITH THE TORNADO WATCH FOR THE TIME BEING.

AS FOR THE FLOODING...WE DID EXPAND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLIER
THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE ARKLAMISS. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF
FLOODING FROM GREENVILLE...TO VICKSBURG...TO NATCHEZ WERE RECEIVED. A
24 HOUR MEASUREMENT OF OVER 7 INCHES WAS RECORDED AT CLAYTON, LA. THE
FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES MAY NOT SEE AS MUCH FLOODING REALIZED WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE REMAINING FURTHER SOUTH...THEY MAY BE A LITTLE MORE CUT
OFF FROM THE BEST INFLOW...BUT AS SATURATED AS THE GROUND IS IN A LOT
OF LOCALES...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT ALL IN THE WATCH THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST...THERE MAY BE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE DELTA THIS
AFTERNOON ASSUMING SOME RECOVERY FROM THIS MORNINGS RAIN. SOME OF THE
WRF MODELS HINT AT THIS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR FORECAST PARAMETERS...BUMPED UP POPS MORE IN THE EAST. ALSO
ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE WEST WHERE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN HAS KEPT THEM ON THE COOLER SIDE. OTHERWISE...MOST OF
THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...NOT A GOOD DAY FOR FLYING ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS.
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ONGOING AS LARGE SWATH OF RAIN
MOVES ACROSS THE I-55 CORRIDOR. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST
TODAY WITH ISOLATED TSRA. LOW CEILINGS...MOSTLY LOWER THAN 1KFT...AND
REDUCED VIS WILL PREVAIL. SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY COME TONIGHT BUT
MOSTLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. /28/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CST THU JAN 10 2013/

DISCUSSION...

FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER ARE CONCERNS TODAY MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS...

THE GOING FORECAST IS WORKING OUT FAIRLY WELL AS TREMENDOUS UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUE WELL OUT
AHEAD OF A DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVING NE ACROSS TX. THE GREATEST MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOCUSING OVER THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA WHICH INCLUDES NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL MS. RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA BUT IT
DOES NOT APPEAR FORECASTED RATES WARRANT A NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE
WATCH. THE IDEA THAT A COASTAL MCS WILL KEEP HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FOCUSED TO THE SOUTH STILL HOLDS.

ALSO STILL OF A CONCERN IS THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
SHEAR AND A LOW-LCL ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS A RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES
TODAY ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR WHERE GREATER LOW LEVEL TRANSPORT (MID/UPPER 60S
DEWPOINTS) AND INSTABILITY IS FORECAST. A SECOND AREA OF GREATER
STRONG/SEVERE TSTM RISK STILL SEEMS POSSIBLE OVER THE DELTA REGION
WHERE THE GREATEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING COULD ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THERE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF GREATER
DAYTIME HEATING CAN OCCUR AS SUGGESTED BY MAV MOS. OVERALL...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER IN THE
GRAPHICS/HWO FOR TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE
EVENING.

LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL WANE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE CLOSE LOW LIFTING OUT QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT SHOWERS
SHOULD LINGER AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT
STALLS OUT OVER CENTRAL MS AND THEN BEGINS A NORTHWARD RETREAT IN
RESPONSE TO THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SHOWERS COULD
QUICKLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE FORECASTED WARM
ADVECTION REGIME AND HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER MAV MOS GUIDANCE
POPS. /EC/

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

FOR THIS WEEKEND A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE WESTERN CONUS AND REINFORCE THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ARKLAMISS REGION. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL HELP WARM
FLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON SATURDAY.  A STRONG COLD FRONT
MARKING THE LEADING EDGE OF A POLAR AIRMASS WILL APPROACH THE LOWER
MS VALLEY REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND ENHANCE LIFT WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ANOMALOUS PRECIPITABLE WATER IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN ABOVE 1.5 INCHES.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE SOME VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH THE PROGRESS
OF THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES TRY TO PUSH THE FRONT
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION THAN IT WAVERS SOME. WHILE THE EURO AS WELL
AS ITS ENSEMBLES HAS THE FRONT HANGING UP OVER THE REGION FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. OPTED TO GO WITH THE SLOWER CAMP OF THE EURO WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A SERIES DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW. THE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS SHOULD BEGIN ON SATURDAY IN THE DELTA REGION. IN
THIS SCENARIO WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ANTICIPATING RATHER MILD
CONDITIONS PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY MILD WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 70S OVER MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE SATURDAY AND PART OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY
PERIOD...NEARLY 20 DEG F ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMAL. THE GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS THE FRONT WAVERING AROUND THE THE REGION FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH VERY EARLY TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THE FRONT WILL FINALLY CLEAR WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AS WE GO
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE
REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY COULD BE FROM
THREE TO FIVE INCHES WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF GREATER
THAN 1.5 INCHES. AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WE WILL LIKELY NEED TO RAMP UP WORDING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OVER AT LEAST PARTS OF THE ARKLAMISS. THIS
WILL BRING UP FLOODING ISSUES WITH THE ALREADY SATURATED SOILS.
THE DELTA REGION NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE SEEMS TO BE THE PRIME
REGION FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
STILL EXPECTED TO BE MITIGATED WITH A WARM CAP IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. OPTED TO GO TOWARD THE WETTER
EURO SOLUTION WITH THIS WET PATTERN. THE GFS WAS DRY WITH THIS
FEATURE.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED WENT CLOSE TO THE MAV GUIDANCE PRIOR TO
THE STRONG FRONT...THEN WENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV, GMOS AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE. FOR POPS HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE EURO SOLUTION. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  56  73  63 /  99  66  27  65
MERIDIAN      73  61  74  64 /  94  74  46  65
VICKSBURG     66  52  73  61 /  99  51  15  64
HATTIESBURG   74  61  76  63 /  99  65  42  31
NATCHEZ       68  53  74  64 /  99  43  19  62
GREENVILLE    68  51  72  58 /  99  70   9  56
GREENWOOD     70  56  72  63 /  99  85  15  61

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>066-072>074.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>026.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

28/EC/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
618 AM CST THU JAN 10 2013

LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ040-041-047-053>066-072>074-111230-
MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-MADISON LA-
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-WARREN-
CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-
MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
618 AM CST THU JAN 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING TODAY. PLEASE
REFERENCE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MORE DETAILS.

THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR WHERE INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS GREATEST. STRONG WIND SHEAR IS CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS
TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS WE GO LATER INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT AND
COMBINE WITH ANOMALOUS MOISTURE TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER A LONG DURATION. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO FUTURE FORECASTS
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS LIKELY TODAY.

MSZ026>033-036>039-042>046-048>052-111230-
GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-
HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-
KEMPER-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-
618 AM CST THU JAN 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING LATER TODAY...AND THERE
WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WE GO
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF A PRODUCING 50 TO
60 MPH WIND GUSTS...AND A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE RISK FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE GREATER AS YOU GO FARTHER
SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS WE GO LATER INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT AND
COMBINE WITH ANOMALOUS MOISTURE TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER A LONG DURATION. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO FUTURE FORECASTS
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS COULD BE NECESSARY TODAY.

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-025-034-035-111230-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-
618 AM CST THU JAN 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING TODAY AND PERHAPS
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF A PRODUCING 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS...AND A
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE
WEATHER WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER AS YOU GO FARTHER SOUTH INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS WE GO LATER INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT AND
COMBINE WITH ANOMALOUS MOISTURE TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER A LONG DURATION. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO FUTURE FORECASTS
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS POSSIBLE TODAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

EC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
834 AM CST THU JAN 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 AM     TSTM WND DMG     NATCHEZ                 31.55N 91.39W
01/10/2013                   ADAMS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN COUNTY WIDE AND SEVERAL MUD SLIDES.

&&

AWEBER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
847 AM CST THU JAN 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CLAYTON                 31.72N 91.54W
01/10/2013                   CONCORDIA          LA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            7.20 INCHES OF RAIN RECORDED IN 24 HOUR PERIOD. HOUSES
            HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH WATER STANDING IN THEM.

&&

AWEBER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
902 AM CST THU JAN 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ANGUILLA                32.97N 90.83W
01/10/2013                   SHARKEY            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MINOR ROAD FLOODING. SOME RESIDENTS WERE REPORTING WATER
            TOUCHING THEIR HOMES.

&&

AWEBER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
913 AM CST THU JAN 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0912 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ST. JOSEPH              31.92N 91.24W
01/10/2013                   TENSAS             LA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL ROADS FLOODED ACROSS THE PARISH

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
914 AM CST THU JAN 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 AM     FLASH FLOOD      TALLULAH                32.41N 91.19W
01/10/2013                   MADISON            LA   NEWSPAPER

            MADISON PARISH SCHOOLS ARE CLOSING EARLY DUE TO EXCESSIVE
            RAINFALL AND WATER STANDING OVER THE ROADS AT THIS TIME.

&&

AWEBER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1006 AM CST THU JAN 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BASTROP                 32.77N 91.91W
01/10/2013                   MOREHOUSE          LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGH WATER REPORTED ON HWY 140.

&&

AWEBER