River Flood Warning 47, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1255 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 245 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS TRACKING ENE ACROSS
CENTRAL THRU EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES AT BAY...AT LEAST EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH READINGS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...WITH
A FEW LOW 80S OVER EXTREME SE IL WHERE THE THICKER CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN HAS STAYED AWAY FROM FOR NOW. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
OVER MOST OF THE AREA...INSTABILITY HAS BEEN HELD DOWN SOME WITH
THE HIGHER CAPES ACRS FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

ENHANCED FLASH FLOOD THREAT SETTING UP TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF A SPRINGFIELD TO CHAMPAIGN LINE.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER SYSTEM
OUT TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACRS OUR AREA SATURDAY. BUT BEFORE THAT
HAPPENS...SEVERAL OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING THE THREAT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE AND SLOW
MOVING MCS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MO ENE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SE IL LATER THIS EVENING AS THE COMBINATION OF HIGH 850 MB
THETA-E AIR AND IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION POINTS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
THIS MORNINGS 850 MB CHART SHOWED DEW POINTS IN THE 15-18 DEGREE C
RANGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES
TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. NAM-WRF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
A WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF 12000 FEET OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN IL LATER
THIS EVENING WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES OF CLOSE TO 2 INCHES IN PARTS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL MO AND SOUTHERN IL. IT APPEARS THE RIVERS IN EAST
CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS HAVE A HIGHER PROBABILITY
FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT RISES IN RIVER LEVELS LATER TONIGHT AND
THRU THE WEEKEND...WHEREAS THE NORTHERN BASINS APPEAR TO BE TOO
FAR NORTH THIS TIME FOR THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. HOWEVER...UNTIL
WE SEE THIS SCENARIO START TO EVOLVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WE ARE PLANNING ON KEEPING THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH
GOING THRU SATURDAY (SEE THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW). THE COMBINATION
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE
SOUTH...SUGGESTS THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH WIND AND HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN SATURDAY MORNING AS THE MCS
TRACKS FURTHER OFF TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH. THEN OUR ATTENTION TURNS
TO THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL FINALLY BE ON THE MOVE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. JUST WHAT AFFECT THE OVERNIGHT
AND MORNING CONVECTION HAS ON ANY REDEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON
IS A REAL CHALLENGE THIS FAR OUT AS EACH MODEL HAS A DIFFERENT
SCENARIO. IT STILL APPEARS AREAS MAINLY EAST OF I-55 STAND THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLE SEVERE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE SHOWER THREAT SHOULD PROGRESS EAST TOMORROW
EVENING ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT SO WILL START TO SHAVE THE POPS BACK
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER SETTLING IN FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS AWAY FROM OUR AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WE SHOULD SEE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILD IN FOR A
DAY OR TWO BEFORE ANOTHER SLOW MOVING UPPER WAY TRACKS ACRS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND APPROACHES OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE US WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING IN THE FAR WEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE UPPER
SYSTEM FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST LATE THU INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL START OUT A BIT BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT SHOULD
RETURN TO NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

SMITH
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1255 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
PRIMARILY KSPI/KDEC/KCMI THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
WHILE KPIA/KBMI SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY. IN ANY EVENT...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY GROWS AND A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. AGAIN...CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST AT
KSPI/KDEC/KCMI.

BAK
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
321 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

ILZ027>031-036-037-040-041-047>050-011100-
CASS-FULTON-KNOX-MARSHALL-MASON-MENARD-MORGAN-PEORIA-SCHUYLER-
SCOTT-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
321 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE FOCUSED FURTHER EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG MANY AREA RIVERS...INCLUDING THE
ILLINOIS...THE SPOON...AND THE MACKINAW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ038-042>046-051>053-011100-
CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-DE WITT-LOGAN-MACON-MCLEAN-PIATT-SANGAMON-
VERMILION-
321 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL SET UP JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...PRIMARILY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A TAYLORVILLE TO PARIS LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT
ON SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND EAST OF I-55 SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
SANGAMON RIVER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-011100-
CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-
JASPER-LAWRENCE-MOULTRIE-RICHLAND-SHELBY-
321 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. WITH THUNDERSTORM CELLS TRAINING OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS...HEAVY RAINFALL OF ONE TO THREE INCHES IS EXPECTED.
THIS COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IN MANY LOW-LYING AND FLOOD
PRONE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT
ON SATURDAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
LITTLE WABASH AND EMBARRAS RIVERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS AND
ANY REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

BARNES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1142 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HOOPESTON               40.47N 87.67W
05/31/2013                   VERMILION          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE BLOWN DOWN IN HOOPESTON

&&

JRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1157 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HOOPESTON               40.47N 87.67W
05/31/2013                   VERMILION          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON HOUSE ON 4TH STREET...TREE BLOCKING ROAD ON
            SEMINARY STREET

1120 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DANVILLE                40.14N 87.62W
05/31/2013                   VERMILION          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS POWER LINES DONW AROUND CITY.

&&

JRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1208 AM CDT SAT JUN 01 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHAMPAIGN               40.11N 88.26W
05/31/2013                   CHAMPAIGN          IL   PUBLIC

            LARGE BRANCH BLOCKING TRAFFIC ON SPRINGFIELD AVE. RELAYED
            VIA WCIA TWITTER FEED

&&

GEELHART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1257 AM CDT SAT JUN 01 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N HORD                38.90N 88.52W
06/01/2013                   CLAY               IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROUTE 45 IS FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE.

&&

BAK

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