Flash Flood Warning 36, NWS Lincoln, IL

385 
WGUS53 KILX 011349
FFWILX
ILC025-033-079-101-159-012030-
/O.EXT.KILX.FF.W.0036.000000T0000Z-130601T2030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
849 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  CLAY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
  CRAWFORD COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
  LAWRENCE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...
  RICHLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...
  SOUTHERN JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT SATURDAY

* AT 846 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED   
  A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS   
  THE WARNING AREA. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN         
  DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND AN ADDITIONAL 1 INCH OF RAIN IS   
  EXPECTED TODAY.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
  OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
  FLORA...LAWRENCEVILLE...OLNEY...ROBINSON...ANNAPOLIS...BIRDS...
  BOGOTA...BRIDGEPORT...CALHOUN...CHAUNCEY...CLAREMONT...CLAY CITY...
  DUNDAS...EATON...FLAT ROCK...HARDINVILLE...HUTSONVILLE...INGAHAM...
  LOUISVILLE...NEW HEBRON...NOBLE...OBLONG...PALESTINE...
  PARKERSBURG...RUSSELLVILLE...SAILOR SPRINGS...SCHNELL...ST.
  FRANCISVILLE...STE. MARIE AND SUMNER.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. DO
NOT ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO
ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN
WATER BEGINS RISING.

&&

LAT...LON 3869 8752 3864 8762 3859 8762 3857 8764
      3857 8812 3860 8819 3860 8870 3875 8870
      3904 8794 3917 8795 3917 8766 3909 8762
      3906 8757 3899 8757 3899 8758 3895 8751
      3886 8755 3879 8750 3877 8751 3874 8750

$$

585 
WGUS73 KILX 011929 RRA
FFSILX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
229 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

ILC025-033-079-101-159-011945-
/O.CAN.KILX.FF.W.0036.000000T0000Z-130601T2030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JASPER IL-LAWRENCE IL-RICHLAND IL-CLAY IL-CRAWFORD IL-
229 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR CRAWFORD...CLAY...
RICHLAND...LAWRENCE AND SOUTHERN JASPER COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3869 8752 3864 8762 3859 8762 3857 8764
      3857 8812 3860 8819 3860 8870 3875 8870
      3904 8794 3917 8795 3917 8766 3909 8762
      3906 8757 3899 8757 3899 8758 3895 8751
      3886 8755 3879 8750 3877 8751 3874 8750

$$

BARNES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
651 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 245 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS TRACKING ENE ACROSS
CENTRAL THRU EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES AT BAY...AT LEAST EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH READINGS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...WITH
A FEW LOW 80S OVER EXTREME SE IL WHERE THE THICKER CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN HAS STAYED AWAY FROM FOR NOW. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
OVER MOST OF THE AREA...INSTABILITY HAS BEEN HELD DOWN SOME WITH
THE HIGHER CAPES ACRS FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

ENHANCED FLASH FLOOD THREAT SETTING UP TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF A SPRINGFIELD TO CHAMPAIGN LINE.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER SYSTEM
OUT TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACRS OUR AREA SATURDAY. BUT BEFORE THAT
HAPPENS...SEVERAL OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING THE THREAT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE AND SLOW
MOVING MCS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MO ENE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SE IL LATER THIS EVENING AS THE COMBINATION OF HIGH 850 MB
THETA-E AIR AND IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION POINTS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
THIS MORNINGS 850 MB CHART SHOWED DEW POINTS IN THE 15-18 DEGREE C
RANGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES
TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. NAM-WRF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
A WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF 12000 FEET OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN IL LATER
THIS EVENING WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES OF CLOSE TO 2 INCHES IN PARTS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL MO AND SOUTHERN IL. IT APPEARS THE RIVERS IN EAST
CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS HAVE A HIGHER PROBABILITY
FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT RISES IN RIVER LEVELS LATER TONIGHT AND
THRU THE WEEKEND...WHEREAS THE NORTHERN BASINS APPEAR TO BE TOO
FAR NORTH THIS TIME FOR THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. HOWEVER...UNTIL
WE SEE THIS SCENARIO START TO EVOLVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WE ARE PLANNING ON KEEPING THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH
GOING THRU SATURDAY (SEE THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW). THE COMBINATION
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE
SOUTH...SUGGESTS THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH WIND AND HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN SATURDAY MORNING AS THE MCS
TRACKS FURTHER OFF TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH. THEN OUR ATTENTION TURNS
TO THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL FINALLY BE ON THE MOVE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. JUST WHAT AFFECT THE OVERNIGHT
AND MORNING CONVECTION HAS ON ANY REDEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON
IS A REAL CHALLENGE THIS FAR OUT AS EACH MODEL HAS A DIFFERENT
SCENARIO. IT STILL APPEARS AREAS MAINLY EAST OF I-55 STAND THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLE SEVERE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE SHOWER THREAT SHOULD PROGRESS EAST TOMORROW
EVENING ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT SO WILL START TO SHAVE THE POPS BACK
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER SETTLING IN FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS AWAY FROM OUR AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WE SHOULD SEE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILD IN FOR A
DAY OR TWO BEFORE ANOTHER SLOW MOVING UPPER WAY TRACKS ACRS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND APPROACHES OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE US WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING IN THE FAR WEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE UPPER
SYSTEM FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST LATE THU INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL START OUT A BIT BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT SHOULD
RETURN TO NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

SMITH
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 651 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

A BREAK IN RAINFALL IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS. IN FACT...KPIA AND KBMI SHOULD STAY
DRY MORE OFTEN THAN NOT TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH...AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS
KSPI/KDEC/KCMI LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
EXPECT LOW END VFR/HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF
ANY HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS.

SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THERE IS ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS TO ONLY CARRY A VCSH MENTION AT THIS
TIME WITH THIS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE A
SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

BAK
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
321 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

ILZ027>031-036-037-040-041-047>050-011100-
CASS-FULTON-KNOX-MARSHALL-MASON-MENARD-MORGAN-PEORIA-SCHUYLER-
SCOTT-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
321 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE FOCUSED FURTHER EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG MANY AREA RIVERS...INCLUDING THE
ILLINOIS...THE SPOON...AND THE MACKINAW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ038-042>046-051>053-011100-
CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-DE WITT-LOGAN-MACON-MCLEAN-PIATT-SANGAMON-
VERMILION-
321 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL SET UP JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...PRIMARILY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A TAYLORVILLE TO PARIS LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT
ON SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND EAST OF I-55 SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
SANGAMON RIVER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-011100-
CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-
JASPER-LAWRENCE-MOULTRIE-RICHLAND-SHELBY-
321 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. WITH THUNDERSTORM CELLS TRAINING OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS...HEAVY RAINFALL OF ONE TO THREE INCHES IS EXPECTED.
THIS COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IN MANY LOW-LYING AND FLOOD
PRONE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT
ON SATURDAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
LITTLE WABASH AND EMBARRAS RIVERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS AND
ANY REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

BARNES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1112 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     HAIL             RANKIN                  40.46N 87.90W
05/31/2013  M1.00 INCH       VERMILION          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1120 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DECATUR                 39.85N 88.93W
05/31/2013                   MACON              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN. ESTIMATED 70 MPH WIND
            SPEED.

1010 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ARGENTA                 39.99N 88.82W
05/31/2013                   MACON              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DAMAGE TO THREE HOUSES. NUMEROUS POWERLINES AND TWO POWER
            POLES BLOWN DOWN

1030 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 NW DECATUR            39.89N 88.99W
05/31/2013                   MACON              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROUTE 121 CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING BETWEEN WARRENSBURG AND
            DECATUR

&&

JRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1128 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1127 PM     TSTM WND GST     DANVILLE                40.14N 87.62W
05/31/2013  M62 MPH          VERMILION          IL   AWOS

            AT AIRPORT

&&

JRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1142 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HOOPESTON               40.47N 87.67W
05/31/2013                   VERMILION          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE BLOWN DOWN IN HOOPESTON

&&

JRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1157 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HOOPESTON               40.47N 87.67W
05/31/2013                   VERMILION          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON HOUSE ON 4TH STREET...TREE BLOCKING ROAD ON
            SEMINARY STREET

1120 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DANVILLE                40.14N 87.62W
05/31/2013                   VERMILION          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS POWER LINES DONW AROUND CITY.

&&

JRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1208 AM CDT SAT JUN 01 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHAMPAIGN               40.11N 88.26W
05/31/2013                   CHAMPAIGN          IL   PUBLIC

            LARGE BRANCH BLOCKING TRAFFIC ON SPRINGFIELD AVE. RELAYED
            VIA WCIA TWITTER FEED

&&

GEELHART