Areal Flood Warning 21, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
114 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE
REGION WILL PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA AS A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
QLCS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE ILN CWA LATE THIS EVENING. LITTLE
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD FROM TX/AR AND ARRIVE IN THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE IS LOW...WARM/MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN
NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOWER 60S
SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PWATS NEARING OR BREAKING RECORD
VALUES FOR DECEMBER. THIS MOISTURE SURGE AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL
ALLOW FOR HIGH RAIN RATES WITH ANY PRECIPITATION OCCURRING THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION.

OUT AHEAD OF THIS LOW...A QLCS/SQUALL LINE TYPE OF FEATURE THAT IS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD...AFFECTING MOST LOCATIONS IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WHICH WILL INCLUDE THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE ILN
CWA. WIND SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES LATE THIS EVENING AS THIS LINE APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...WITH THE TIMING OF THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE
IN THE ILN CWA BEING BETWEEN 10 PM AND 3 AM. HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS A LARGE SWATH OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE QLCS AND AREAS NORTH OF
THE QLCS. THIS WILL LIKELY WORSEN EXISTING FLOOD ISSUES AND CREATE
NEW FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS THE AREA.

IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING TONIGHT AND
THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS
EVENING...SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION
TONIGHT.

BY THE END OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
IN THE WESTERN ZONES...WITH THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO EXIT OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE ILN
CWA ON SUNDAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND BRING IN COOLER AIR
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE
AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
WITH A WEAK TROUGH HELPING TO PRODUCE MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
EVENTUALLY...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE ALL SNOW AS SUFFICIENT
COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FROM SNOW SHOWERS THAT MAY OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GIVEN SHORT TERM CONCERNS...NOT MUCH TIME SPENT ON THIS TIMEFRAME.
THIS PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY LONGWAVE RIDGING NEAR/OFF THE WEST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WHICH SUPPORTS TROUGHING IN THE NORTHEAST
CONUS. THIS IS A BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME FOR THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND HAVE DERIVED MAX/MIN TEMPS FIRST FROM AN ECMWF/ENSEMBLE
MOS AND ADJUSTED FROM THERE TO MEET DETERMINISTIC THOUGHTS ON
ADVECTION. REALLY NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS IN THIS
REGIME...THE ONLY APPRECIABLE CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION COMES WITH A
WEAK SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT THESE ARE MINOR THREATS AT
BEST AS BEING DEPICTED IN THE 21.12Z ECMWF/GFS MODELS AT THIS TIME.
SUPPOSE THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A LAKE-INDUCED SNOW SHOWER THREAT
IN THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND EITHER SYSTEM...BUT THOSE MESOSCALE
PROCESS ARE NOT WELL DEFINED AT THIS TIME RANGE THIS FAR FROM THE
LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ALONG A FRONT LOCATED OVER OHIO AND INDIANA
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
CONVECTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAD MOVED EAST OF ALL TAF
SITES BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SHOULD MOVE OUT OF FORECAST
AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN/HEAVY RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND LOW PRESSURE AREAS EXTENDED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BACK INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA AND WESTERN KY
AT 22/05Z. CIGS AND VSBYS TO BECOME MVFR TO OCNLY IFR IN LARGE
AREA OF RAIN/HEAVY RAIN THROUGH 09Z-13Z. VSBYS TO IMPROVE AS SHOWERS
COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. CIGS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MVFR AFTER 13Z EXTENDING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE SW AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER 09Z. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWERS AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING IN FLOW BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.
HOWEVER...IF THEY DO OCCUR COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW SO OPTED TO
LEAVE THEM OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
     073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...PARKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
412 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-222115-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
411 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERN AT THIS TIME...THOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 71. THUNDERSTORMS WOULD
CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN RATES...AND COULD BRING A FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTH...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20 TO 25 MPH...AND GUSTS TO 35
MPH. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
107 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BROWNSVILLE             39.66N 85.00W
12/21/2013                   UNION              IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            2 TREES DOWN

&&

KURZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
110 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 AM     FLOOD            LIBERTY                 39.63N 84.93W
12/22/2013                   UNION              IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL ROADS CLOSED COUNTY WIDE DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

KURZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
114 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1247 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ROSEMOUNT               38.79N 82.97W
12/22/2013                   SCIOTO             OH   COCORAHS

            6 INCH DIAMETER BRANCH DOWN

&&

KURZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
116 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NNW DOWNTOWN DAYTON   39.81N 84.22W
12/22/2013  M4.20 INCH       MONTGOMERY         OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL

&&

KURZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
118 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1009 PM     TSTM WND DMG     JACKSON CENTER          40.44N 84.04W
12/21/2013                   SHELBY             OH   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN

&&

KURZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
125 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1246 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 W BATAVIA             39.09N 84.27W
12/22/2013                   CLERMONT           OH   PUBLIC

            WATER UP TO 4 FEET DEEP RUSHING ACROSS WUEBOLD LN AND
            YARDS IN EAST GATE AREA.

&&

KURZ