Flash Flood Warning 37, NWS Wilmington, OH

962 
WGUS71 KILN 220726
FFSILN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
226 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

INC029-047-115-137-155-220733-
/O.CAN.KILN.FF.W.0037.000000T0000Z-131222T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SWITZERLAND IN-OHIO IN-FRANKLIN IN-DEARBORN IN-RIPLEY IN-
226 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR RIPLEY...
DEARBORN...FRANKLIN...OHIO AND SWITZERLAND COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST
INDIANA HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

HEAVY RAIN OF 2.5 INCHES TO OVER 3 INCHES WHICH WAS OBSERVED ACROSS 
THE AREA LAST EVENING RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD FLOOD ISSUES. THE HEAVY 
RAIN HAS ENDED AND THE WATER HAS NOW RECEDED. THEREFORE THE FLOOD 
THREAT HAS ENDED AND THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

PLEASE REPORT PREVIOUS FLASH FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BY GOING TO OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ILN AND SUBMITTING YOUR REPORT
VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

LAT...LON 3924 8537 3927 8530 3952 8530 3952 8482
      3911 8482 3906 8490 3898 8483 3891 8488
      3888 8479 3886 8479 3883 8483 3879 8481
      3878 8499 3869 8517 3869 8521 3891 8521
      3891 8544

$$

AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
649 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE
REGION WILL PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA AS A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SHARP SURFACE FRONT IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD WITH HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION ENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA SETS UP IN THE WARM SECTOR. CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES WILL CONTINUE TO SEE STEADY
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH INTERMITTENT
LIGHTER RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ZONES. FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT ACROSS THE AREA WITH EARLIER SNOW
MELT...DEPARTING AND ONGOING AREAS OF RAINFALL...AND FORECASTED
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE THE FLOOD
WATCH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD FOR ALL ZONES.

A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD FROM TX/AR AND ARRIVE IN THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE IS LOW...WARM/MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN
NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOWER 60S
SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PWATS NEARING OR BREAKING RECORD
VALUES FOR DECEMBER. THIS MOISTURE SURGE AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL
ALLOW FOR HIGH RAIN RATES WITH ANY PRECIPITATION OCCURRING THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION.

OUT AHEAD OF THIS LOW...A QLCS/SQUALL LINE TYPE OF FEATURE THAT IS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD...AFFECTING MOST LOCATIONS IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WHICH WILL INCLUDE THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE ILN
CWA. WIND SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES LATE THIS EVENING AS THIS LINE APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...WITH THE TIMING OF THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE
IN THE ILN CWA BEING BETWEEN 10 PM AND 3 AM. HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS A LARGE SWATH OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE QLCS AND AREAS NORTH OF
THE QLCS. THIS WILL LIKELY WORSEN EXISTING FLOOD ISSUES AND CREATE
NEW FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS THE AREA.

IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING TONIGHT AND
THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS
EVENING...SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION
TONIGHT.

BY THE END OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
IN THE WESTERN ZONES...WITH THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO EXIT OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE ILN
CWA ON SUNDAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND BRING IN COOLER AIR
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE
AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
WITH A WEAK TROUGH HELPING TO PRODUCE MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
EVENTUALLY...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE ALL SNOW AS SUFFICIENT
COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FROM SNOW SHOWERS THAT MAY OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GIVEN SHORT TERM CONCERNS...NOT MUCH TIME SPENT ON THIS TIMEFRAME.
THIS PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY LONGWAVE RIDGING NEAR/OFF THE WEST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WHICH SUPPORTS TROUGHING IN THE NORTHEAST
CONUS. THIS IS A BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME FOR THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND HAVE DERIVED MAX/MIN TEMPS FIRST FROM AN ECMWF/ENSEMBLE
MOS AND ADJUSTED FROM THERE TO MEET DETERMINISTIC THOUGHTS ON
ADVECTION. REALLY NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS IN THIS
REGIME...THE ONLY APPRECIABLE CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION COMES WITH A
WEAK SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT THESE ARE MINOR THREATS AT
BEST AS BEING DEPICTED IN THE 21.12Z ECMWF/GFS MODELS AT THIS TIME.
SUPPOSE THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A LAKE-INDUCED SNOW SHOWER THREAT
IN THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND EITHER SYSTEM...BUT THOSE MESOSCALE
PROCESS ARE NOT WELL DEFINED AT THIS TIME RANGE THIS FAR FROM THE
LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING THIS EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT AND
COLD FRONT. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUED TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM THE SW TO NE THIS EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT IN THIS VERY MOIST REGIME AND END FROM
THE WEST SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH
WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. POSSIBILITY EXISTS OF A SQUALL LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT. INCLUDED THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL
TAF SITES EXCEPT KCMH AND KLCK AFT 02Z TO 04Z FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
LESS LIKELY TO SEE THUNDER AS FAR NORTH AS KCMH AND KLCK BUT WILL
MONITOR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR ON SUNDAY
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POSSIBILITY
OF WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AFTER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS REGION
SUNDAY BUT SINCE THAT IS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ANY
FORECAST OF SHOWERS WAS LEFT OUT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
     051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
     073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...PARKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
412 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-222115-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
411 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERN AT THIS TIME...THOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 71. THUNDERSTORMS WOULD
CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN RATES...AND COULD BRING A FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTH...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20 TO 25 MPH...AND GUSTS TO 35
MPH. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
729 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0559 PM     FLOOD            SIDNEY                  40.29N 84.16W
12/21/2013                   SHELBY             OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ONE ROAD WAS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER CAUSED BY HEAVY
            RAIN. THERE WERE SEVERAL OTHER REPORTS OF HIGH STANDING
            WATER ACROSS SHELBY COUNTY.

&&

ASL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
731 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0604 PM     FLOOD            BELLEFONTAINE           40.36N 83.76W
12/21/2013                   LOGAN              OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TOWNSHIP ROADS 229...208 NORTH...78...AND 32 SOUTH WERE
            CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER CAUSED BY HEAVY RAINFALL. COUNTY
            ROAD 200 WAS ALSO CLOSED DUE TO HIGH STANDING WATER.

&&

ASL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
740 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0611 PM     FLOOD            EATON                   39.75N 84.63W
12/21/2013                   PREBLE             OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL ROAD CLOSURES WERE REPORTED MAINLY DUE TO FIELD
            WATER OVER ROADS CAUSED BY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

ASL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
742 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0724 PM     FLOOD            CENTERVILLE             39.82N 85.00W
12/21/2013                   WAYNE              IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MANY ROADS FLOODED AND SEVERAL ROADS CLOSED. RAINFALL FOR
            YESTERDAY AND TODAY IS AT 3.05

&&

MJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
825 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 NW DOWNTOWN DAYTON    39.81N 84.24W
12/21/2013  M2.47 INCH       MONTGOMERY         OH   AMATEUR RADIO

            STORM TOTAL THUS FAR.

0815 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 W BROOKVILLE          39.42N 85.02W
12/21/2013  M2.10 INCH       FRANKLIN           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL THUS FAR. 1.5 INCHES SINCE 7 AM.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
904 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

INZ059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>092-094-095-OHZ070-077-220245-
UNION IN-SWITZERLAND IN-OHIO IN-FRANKLIN IN-DEARBORN IN-RIPLEY IN-
KENTON KY-OWEN KY-BOONE KY-CARROLL KY-GALLATIN KY-GRANT KY-BUTLER OH-
HAMILTON OH-
904 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

...A LINE OF STRONG STORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN HAMILTON...WESTERN
BUTLER...GRANT...GALLATIN...CARROLL...BOONE...OWEN...KENTON...RIPLEY.
..DEARBORN...FRANKLIN...OHIO...SWITZERLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN UNION
COUNTIES THROUGH 945 PM EST...

AT 900 PM EST...RADAR INDICATED STRONG STORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 21 MILES NORTHWEST OF HOLTON TO 19 MILES WEST OF LOCUST TO 31
MILES SOUTHWEST OF LOCUST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 50 MPH...

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...OSGOOD...VERSAILLES...
BATESVILLE...OLDENBURG...CARROLLTON...MILAN...DILLSBORO...VEVAY...
BROOKVILLE...AURORA...RISING SUN...WARSAW...LAWRENCEBURG...GREENDALE
AND KENTUCKY SPEEDWAY.

ALSO...HOLTON...NEW MARION...REXVILLE...OTTER VILLAGE...NAPOLEON...
BENHAM...LOCUST...VERSAILLES LAKE...OLEAN AND MOOREFIELD ARE NEAR THE
PATH OF THIS LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 3920 8545 3927 8530 3943 8530 3957 8481
      3890 8454 3848 8457 3834 8476 3838 8490
      3842 8489 3842 8495 3851 8499 3851 8503
      3856 8501 3858 8522 3874 8534 3874 8526
      3870 8521 3891 8521 3891 8545

ASL