Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
258 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

OVERNIGHT CONVECTION LEFT WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAKENING MCV OVER
NORTHEAST KS WHICH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AS IT SHEARS OUT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE ADDITIONAL IMPULSES...ONE OVER NORTHWEST KS
AND ANOTHER ROTATING OVER CENTRAL CO. ON THE LARGER SCALE...A
CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ONTARIO WITH ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING OVER NORTHERN CA.

AT THE SURFACE...OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS PUSHED THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH
AND CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE TX PANHANDLE ACROSS SOUTHERN OK
AND INTO NORTHERN AR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

THE TREND OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OUT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND
TRACK EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AFFECTING OUR FORECAST
AREA GENERALLY AFTER 10 PM. EACH DAY THE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
FARTHER AND FARTHER SOUTH AS THE FRONT HAS BEEN PUSHED THIS SAME
DIRECTION. CURRENTLY EXPECTING THE SAME TO HAPPEN TONIGHT. STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE TX PANHANDLE/NW OK BY THE EARLY EVENING
AND WILL TRACK EAST AND SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE
THE AXIS OF EXPECTED HEAVY RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED SOUTH COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 400 WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT TO SEE SOME
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS WILL GO AHEAD AND
CANCEL PART OF THE FLOOD WATCH OVER CENTRAL KS.

FRI SHOULD BE MUCH LIKE TODAY WITH THE OVERNIGHT STORMS PUSHING
EAST INTO MO AND AR WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ON FRI NIGHT AS SOME WEAK
UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS RIDGING
SHOULD ALSO KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR SAT FOR MOST
OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

THE MAIN THEME AS WE HEAD INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE
FOR THE WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO BREAK DOWN WHICH WILL BRING BACK A
MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE UPPER FLOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE
DIRTY SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME TO MOVE BACK OVER THE FORECAST
AREA PROVIDING MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR STORMS. THERE SEEMS TO BE GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS ON TRACKING MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING AND AGAIN
TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THERE IS ALSO SOME MODEL AGREEMENT IN
STRENGTHENING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND DESERT
SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH TROUGHING REMAINING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WOULD PLACE
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER STRONGER NW FLOW ALLOWING THE ACTIVE
PATTERN TO CONTINUE.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT TEMPS THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES MAY
BRIEFLY HAVE MVFR CEILINGS AT THE ONSET. ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT KCNU/SE KS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
DRIVEN BY AFTERNOON HEATING AND DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BETTER
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AT
KHUT/KICT/KCNU AS NEXT IN SERIES OF UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  78  66  85 /  50  40  20  10
HUTCHINSON      62  76  63  85 /  40  30  20  10
NEWTON          63  77  64  84 /  40  30  20  10
ELDORADO        64  78  65  84 /  50  40  30  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  80  67  85 /  60  50  30  10
RUSSELL         61  78  62  86 /  20  30  10  10
GREAT BEND      62  76  61  87 /  30  30  10  10
SALINA          62  79  63  84 /  30  30  20  10
MCPHERSON       62  77  63  85 /  30  30  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     70  81  67  84 /  80  60  50  20
CHANUTE         66  79  64  84 /  70  50  50  20
IOLA            65  78  64  83 /  60  50  40  20
PARSONS-KPPF    68  80  66  84 /  80  60  50  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ050>053-067>072-082-
083-091>096-098>100.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
137 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-091845-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
137 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST KANSAS. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAIN.
THE ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLOODING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE ADDITIONAL FLOOD
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

SEVERAL RIVER AND COUNTY FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MAINLY
SOUTH CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SEE THE LATEST
WARNINGS AND STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. FLOOD PRODUCING RAIN IS THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO PRIMARILY CENTRAL KANSAS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND SPREAD OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE REGION FOR MOST OF
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT...HOWEVER REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OR RAINFALL
GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

ES/HOWERTON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
451 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

KSZ098-082215-
CHAUTAUQUA-
451 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...

AT 449 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTH OF CEDAR VALE...OR 17 MILES WEST
OF SEDAN...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE. ADDITIONALLY...THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS. LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE FLOOD
WARNINGS...SHOULD THE RISK FOR MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING BECOME MORE
IMMINENT.

&&

LAT...LON 3714 9653 3725 9653 3730 9619 3707 9619
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 270DEG 14KT 3719 9647

KLEINSASSER