Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1144 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A CLOSED LOW REMAINS ALONG THE
ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER WITH ANOTHER UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE
PACIFIC NW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN NM/SOUTHERN CO WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL ENERGY BACK OVER SOUTHERN CA. AT THE SURFACE...A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM W TX ACROSS CENTRAL OK AND INTO
CENTRAL MO. THIS FRONT WAS LIKELY REINFORCED FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION ALONG WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

THE BIG CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS TO PUSH THE
WIDESPREAD STORM CHANCES OUT ABOUT 12 HOURS WHICH WOULD MAKE IT
START AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z AND LIKELY CLOSER TO
SUNRISE THU.

THERE IS SOME MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE TIED CLOSER TO THE MAIN UPPER
WAVE WHICH WILL BE OVER CO TONIGHT. SO FEEL THE MOST WIDESPREAD
PRECIP BEFORE 06Z WILL BE OUT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN
CO/WESTERN KS/OK PANHANDLE...JUST LIKE THE LAST FEW NIGHTS THIS
ACTIVITY WILL TRACK EAST WITH SOUTHERN KS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE
AT HEAVY RAIN THROUGH 18Z THU.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS...UKMET AND ECMWF
THAT A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR FROM THU
EVENING THROUGH FRI MORNING AS THE MAIN UPPER WAVE FINALLY MOVES
OUT ACROSS KS. THIS WILL RESULT IN IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. IN ADDITION...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG
THE SURFACE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE KS/OK BORDER WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AFFECTING SOUTHERN KS EARLY THU EVENING. SO IT
LOOKS LIKE IT WAS A GOOD CALL FOR THE EVENING SHIFT TO EXTEND THE
FLOOD WATCH OUT.

ANOTHER CHANGE WAS TO LINGER RAIN FOR MUCH OF FRI ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER WAVE
TAKES ITS TIME PUSHING EAST. BY FRI NIGHT WE SHOULD FINALLY START
TO SEE A BRIEF DRYING OUT PERIOD WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

THERE CONTINUES TO BE MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL START TO RAMP BACK UP ON SUN NIGHT AS A SERIES OF
UPPER IMPULSES START TO IMPACT THE AREA. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH
THAT TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

MAIN MCS STRETCHING FROM WESTERN KS INTO WESTERN OK WILL TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. STRONGEST ACTIVITY COULD
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS/HEAVY RAIN AT HUT AND ICT FROM 08-12Z.
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD REDEVELOP AND BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LATER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME VSBY/CIG
REDUCTIONS INTO AT LEAST THE MVFR RANGE AT TIMES.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  82  68  81 / 100  80  90  40
HUTCHINSON      67  80  66  79 / 100  80  90  40
NEWTON          67  81  66  79 /  80  80  90  50
ELDORADO        69  82  68  81 /  90 100  90  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  84  69  82 / 100  90  90  30
RUSSELL         65  76  63  78 /  70  80  80  40
GREAT BEND      66  78  63  78 /  90  80  80  40
SALINA          68  77  66  78 /  50  70  80  60
MCPHERSON       67  79  66  78 /  70  80  80  50
COFFEYVILLE     72  84  71  85 /  80  90  90  40
CHANUTE         70  82  69  83 /  70 100  80  60
IOLA            70  81  69  83 /  60  90  80  60
PARSONS-KPPF    71  84  70  84 /  80 100  90  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
405 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-081830-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
405 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. THE BIGGEST RISK IS FLOOD PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. SOUTHERN KANSAS
LOOKS TO HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE TO EXPERIENCE THE HEAVY RAINFALL
LATE TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE LATEST FLOOD WATCH FOR MORE DETAILS.

BOTH COUNTY AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS FROM RECENT HEAVY
RAINS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS
FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH FLOODING
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
WHICH WOULD ONLY WORSEN ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS...PLEASE SEE LATEST
FLOOD WATCH FOR MORE DETAILS.

IN ADDITION...AREAL AND RIVER FLOODING COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY IF
NOT LONGER. PLEASE WATCH FOR UPDATED FLOOD AND RIVER WARNING
STATEMENTS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION AGAIN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

CJ/HOWERTON/LAWSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
251 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

KSZ082-091-080815-
HARPER-KINGMAN-
251 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HARPER AND KINGMAN COUNTIES...

AT 247 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CUNNINGHAM TO 6
MILES SOUTH OF ATTICA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE FLOODING WARNINGS...SHOULD
THE RISK FOR MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING BECOME MORE IMMINENT.

&&

LAT...LON 3773 9781 3702 9780 3701 9834 3739 9834
      3739 9846 3773 9845
TIME...MOT...LOC 0752Z 211DEG 27KT 3768 9849 3719 9821

KETCHAM