Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
259 PM EDT FRI JUL 5 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS ON
MONDAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND STALL ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE WEST...AND BERMUDA HIGH
CONTINUES TO ROTATE TO THE EAST.  IS RESPONSE...ENHANCED SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS PROMOTING
ONGOING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  RECENT RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION HAS LEFT SOILS VERY SATURATED THUS KEEPING FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL ELEVATED.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
REGARDS TO UPSLOPE FLOW FORCING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER
TERRAINS.  QPF RESPONSE IN THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THAT OF
THE NAM...THUS WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND OF THE TWO WHICH PRODUCED
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE PERIOD OF 1-2 INCHES.  SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE DEFINITELY POSSIBLE ADJACENT TO HEAVIER
CONVECTION AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEED 1.75 INCHES ACROSS A
BROAD AREA.  THEREFORE...EXTENDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  INSTABILITY REMAINS THE HIGHEST
ACROSS THE NC/SC PIEDMONTS THIS AFTERNOON THUS ALLOWING FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE.  STILL EXPECTING MOISTURE AXIS
TO SHIFT WESTWARD IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS ALLOWING FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES OF THE CWFA.

ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF ACROSS THE EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS
ALLOWING FOR MORE CONCENTRATION TO THE WEST.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL
STRUGGLE AFTER SUNSET AS WHAT LITTLE INSTABILITY WAS PRESENT...IS
LOST.  HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH MODERATE RAIN RATES WILL
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS NE GEORGIA AND THE HIGHER TERRAINS OF
SC/NC. EXPECTING MUCH OF THE SAME ON SATURDAY AS MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO FLOW INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH ALLOWING FOR UPSLOPE FLOW TO
PERSIST.  LOOKS AS IF ACTIVITY WILL RAMP UP YET AGAIN BY LATE
MORNING.  THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING HOURS.  PERHAPS ALLOWING
FOR A SLIGHT BREAK FOR THE RAIN SOAKED FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE H5 LOW CENTER NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE
OH AND MS RIVER VALLEYS SAT NIGHT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT EASTWARD AND
SLOWLY FILL THROUGH SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO IMPROVING SUPPORT FROM
THE UPPER TROUGH...UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL CROSS THE AREA MAINLY SUN
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE SRLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE
SUNDAY AS YET ANOTHER WAVE MOVES NWD THROUGH MIDDLE TN. THIS FORCING
WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE FROM 12Z SUN TO 12Z
MONDAY...SO THE FLASH FLOOD OR FLOOD WATCH COULD WELL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AT SOME POINT IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

THE PHASING UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY...BUT WITH UPPER SUPPORT LINGERING IN THE ERN SECTIONS DURING
PEAK HEATING. PIEDMONT INSTABILITY WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH WITH CAPES
2000 TO 3000 J/KG BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY DAY. THE THREAT OF ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE PEAK AFTN AND EVENING
HOURS. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE HIGHEST IN THE NC PIEDMONT AND ERN
UPSTATE MONDAY AFTN DEPENDING ON WAVE TIMING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...A FLAT RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SRN TIER OF
THE CONUS MON THROUGH WED. SFC HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE EXCEPT FOR A
DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT. MID LEVEL DRYING IS
INDICATED...BUT LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN MOIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC
MON THROUGH WED EXPEXT A MORE DIURNAL TREND IN POPS. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NW ON THU WITH A RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND IT
FRI. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RECOVER TO NEAR SUMMERTIME NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL HEADLINE THE TAF CYCLE THROUGH
THE FIRST SIX HOURS OF THE PERIOD AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT.  OTHERWISE...CIGS
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR LEVELS AFTER AROUND 00Z WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LOW MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING AROUND 06Z.  BEYOND THAT...EXPECTING VFR
LEVEL CIGS WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING IN A PROB30 GROUP FOR TSRA
LATE IN THE MORNING HOURS.  WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 5-10KT
RANGE AND SOUTHERLY.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
INCREASE WITH THE DEEPEST THUNDERSTORM CONVECTION BEING ACROSS THE
EASTERN MOST SITES THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHER LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE
SC SITES...WILL SEE EITHER SHRA OR TSRA WITH HEAVY RAIN RATES AT
TIMES REDUCING VISB TO MVFR LEVELS.  AS WINDS CALM OVERNIGHT AND A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SETTLES...EXPECTING LOW LYING STATUS TO
DEVELOP.  WITH THIS...LOOK FOR IFR POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS BY MID
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KAVL.  OTHERWISE...ADDED EITHER SHRA OR VCTS
FOR ALL SITES BY LATE MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR REDEVELOPMENT.  WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL
FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EACH MORNING THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY DRY BY TUESDAY...RESULTING IN A DECREASE RISK OF
WIDESPREAD MORNING STRATUS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-19Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%     MED   74%     HIGH  94%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  89%
KAVL       HIGH  97%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  82%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  92%
KGMU       HIGH  98%     HIGH  94%     MED   78%     HIGH  94%
KAND       HIGH  95%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  81%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NCZ033-035-
     048>053-056-058-059-062>065-068>070-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR SCZ001>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...CDG

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