Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
250 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

LATEST UPDATE...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION/SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

SQUALL LINE MOVING INTO REGION OF SB CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG AND 0-1
KM SRH OF ABOUT 500 M2/S2. EXPECTING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO BE OUR
PRIMARY THREAT AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE CONGEALED NATURE OF THE
SQUALL LINE. A FEW TORNADOES ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THIS LINE HOWEVER.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 60+ KTS WILL HELP MAINTAIN THIS LINE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS IS ALSO SHOWN BY SPC'S DERECHO COMPOSITE
(PARAMETER OF 2). CRAVEN BROOKS SIG SEVERE DOES CONTINUE TO SHOW A
FAIRLY HIGH POTENTIAL WITH THIS LINE TO PRODUCE SOME SEVERE WIND
GUSTS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

A STORMY EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
BUT STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE. THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL
REMAIN BEYOND THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR
MOVES IN TOMORROW WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. MAINTAINED HIGH WIND GUSTS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE EXPECTED BY MID
TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY. THE GREATEST IMPACT WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THIS EVENING WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
CONTINUING AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING (SEE MESOSCALE
DISCUSSION). SYNOPTIC WINDS CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT WITH WIND GUSTS REACHING THE 50-60 MPH RANGE FOR ALL LAND
AREAS. THESE WINDS COULD BE DAMAGING AT TIMES AND POWER OUTAGES
WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME LAKE
EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS ACTIVITY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

NO CHANGES TO LONG TERM GIVEN THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH WIND GUSTS ALONG
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES. ONCE THIS MOVES
THROUGH...HIGH WIND THREAT CONTINUES WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OVER 40
MPH AND AS HIGH AS 60 MPH DURING THE EVENING. WINDS WILL START OUT
SOUTH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...GO SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN WEST LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

STORM WARNING CONTINUES WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS COMING TONIGHT.
PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS OF 10-15 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
ZONES TONIGHT. A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 55 KTS ARE NOT IMPOSSIBLE. A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN WIND AND WAVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED MONDAY
ALTHOUGH GALES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS EVENT WILL BE RANGING FROM 0.50
INCH AROUND JACKSON AND OUR SE FORECAST AREA TO AN INCH OR MORE
FROM GRAND RAPIDS TO THE NW. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO BE A FLASH
FLOODING OR EVEN AREAL FLOODING SITUATION GIVEN THE VERY FAST
NATURE OF THESE STORMS. LOCAL PONDING OF ROADS IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE LEAVES THAT COULD BE CLOGGING DRAINS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ037>040-043>046-
     050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

MESOSCALE...HOVING
SYNOPSIS...HOVING
SHORT TERM...HOVING
LONG TERM...HOVING
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...HOVING
MARINE...HOVING

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1210 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-181115-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
1210 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AS A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 2 PM AND 6 PM. THE MAIN THREAT
IS DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH BUT SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
ALSO BRING TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL. SIGNIFICANT LONG TRACKED
TORNADOES ARE A POSSIBILITY. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THE STORMS COULD ALSO CAUSE MINOR FLOODING.

EVEN AFTER THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH...THE THREAT FOR HIGH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE AS
THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER SLOWLY MOVES AWAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE MONDAY MORNING
COMMUTE...BUT THE SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

LMZ844>849-181115-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
1210 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN BETWEEN 1 PM AND 4 PM WITH HIGH WINDS...CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTING...AND HEAVY RAIN. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BRING LARGE HAIL
AND WATERSPOUTS.

SOUTHWEST GALES TO 35 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO STORM FORCE OF 50
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST STORM FORCE WINDS TO 55 KNOTS THIS
EVENING WILL BACK TO THE WEST AND DECREASE TO GALES TO 40 KNOTS
LATE TONIGHT.

WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND UP TO 15
FEET TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS TO MARINERS INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

OSTUNO MEADE

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
336 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     TSTM WND GST     BYRON CENTER            42.81N 85.72W
11/17/2013  M63 MPH          KENT               MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED GUST ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF STORM

&&

JMAPLES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
340 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0336 PM     HAIL             NW GREENVILLE           43.18N 85.26W
11/17/2013  M0.70 INCH       MONTCALM           MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER ALSO ESTIMATED WINDS AROUND 45 MPH

&&

JMAPLES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
347 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0342 PM     TSTM WND GST     ALAMO                   42.38N 85.71W
11/17/2013  E70 MPH          KALAMAZOO          MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JMAPLES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
349 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KALAMAZOO               42.28N 85.59W
11/17/2013                   KALAMAZOO          MI   AMATEUR RADIO

            ESTIMATED 60 MPH WIND AT KALAMAZOO MALL. ONE MOBILE HOME
            KNOCKED OVER IN KALAMAZOO TOWNSHIP. TIME ESTIMATED FROM
            RADAR.

&&

TJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
350 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0339 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SE GRAND RAPIDS       42.92N 85.60W
11/17/2013                   KENT               MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED HEALTHY TREE LIMB DOWN THAT IS 5 INCHES
            IN DIAMETER. ESTIMATED WINDS OF 60 MPH

&&

JMAPLES