Severe Thunderstorm Warning 66, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1246 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

LATEST UPDATE...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

SIGNIFICANT LINE OF SEVERE STORMS HAS ALREADY EVOLVED FROM SRN
WISCONSIN SOUTHWARD ACROSS ILLINOIS. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
MOVING RAPIDLY INTO SRN LWR MI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT A VERY
HIGH RATE OF SPEED NEAR 60 MPH AND SHOULD CONGEAL INTO MORE OF A
SOLID SQUALL LINE.

SFC BASED INSTABILITY HAS NOT YET DEVELOPED IN SW LWR MI AND THE
CURRENT ACTIVITY IS IN AN AREA OF 1500 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE.
LATEST RAP13 GUIDANCE KEEPS OUR SFC BASED CAPES UNDER 500 J/KG
THROUGH 22Z THEN JUMPS ABOVE 500 J/KG AFTER 22Z. ALTHOUGH THE
INSTABILITY IN SW LWR MI WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN UPSTREAM AS THIS
EVENT UNFOLDS... THE VERY STRONG SHEAR/DYNAMICS WILL PROBABLY
COMPENSATE WITH A SIGNIFICANT WIND THREAT STILL LIKELY.

THE SERIOUS TORNADO THREAT HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN ALL OF THE SPC
UPDATES AND STATEMENTS AND SEVERAL TORNADO WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY
IN EFFECT UPSTREAM ACROSS ILLINOIS.

BOTTOM LINE... A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS GOING TO
HAPPEN SOON IN SW LWR MI... AND THE EVENT WILL PROGRESS VERY
QUICKLY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

PEOPLE IN SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE
WEATHER TODAY BECAUSE IT LOOKS LIKE WE/RE GOING TO SEE A SIGNIFICANT
WIND EVENT. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 4 AM MONDAY.

A STRONG AUTUMN STORM WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES FROM IOWA
TOWARD THE LEELANAU PENINSULA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TODAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. HOWEVER
THIS AFTERNOON...STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AS
VERY STRONG DYNAMICS TAP INTO A MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER MAINTAINS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY WITH A HIGH RISK REACHING INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AS HIGHS FALL BACK TO
THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

LATEST MODEL RUNS DIDN/T CHANGE THE THINKING THAT WE/RE STARING AT A
SIGNIFICANT WIND THREAT TODAY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY STRONG GRADIENT WINDS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS A RESULT WE ISSUED A
HIGH WIND WARNING THAT/S IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM TODAY THROUGH 4 AM
MONDAY.

A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES. SFC LOW
PRESSURE IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE LEELANAU
PENINSULA LATE TODAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH WILL BE AN INITIAL
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE MAIN SHOW WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A LOW LEVEL JET NEAR 65 KNOTS COUPLED WITH
A MID LEVEL JET NEAR 95 KNOTS WILL GENERATE SIGNIFICANT SHEAR THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL
MOVE OVER THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IF WE CAN REALIZE CLOSE TO
THE 800 J/KG MLCAPE THE MODELS INDICATE WE SHOULD HAVE MORE THAN
ENOUGH FORCING AND ORGANIZATION FOR SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THE STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING IN AT THE SAME TIME
WILL ONLY AID IN THE LIFT.

SPC MAINTAINS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH A HIGH RISK
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. CAN/T ARGUE WITH THAT. THE HRRR SHOWS A
BROKEN LINE OF STORMS ARRIVING AT THE SHORE AROUND 20Z. THIS
TIMING IS CONSISTENT WITH OTHER MODELS. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS TO BE FROM 20Z THROUGH 01Z. AFTER THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE ATTENTION WILL TURN TO SYNOPTIC WINDS.

THE WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. NAM SHOWS 3 HRLY
PRESSURE RISES IN THE 9-10 MB RANGE WHICH IS PRETTY HIGH AND SHOULD
RESULT IN HIGH WIND WARNING TYPE WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
WHERE GUSTS TO 55-65 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
HELP TO PULL DOWN THE 55 KNOTS SEEN AT 900 FEET ON BUFKIT WIND
PROFILES. SURE SEEMS LIKE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT.

MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY/TUESDAY AS HIGHS ONLY CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

NO BIG STORMS IN THE EXTENDED. BUMPED UP MAXES A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AS
EURO HAS 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 5C WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE DRAWN NORTHWARD TO BRING SOME
SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS IT POOLS IN FRONT OF
ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH PRECIP
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW BY FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE
DETAILS IS LOW WITH POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.  THE GFS HAS A SFC LOW AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT COMING
THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE THE EURO IS FURTHER NORTH AND SLOWER WITH THE
LOW. SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
IN EITHER SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH WIND GUSTS ALONG
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES. ONCE THIS MOVES
THROUGH...HIGH WIND THREAT CONTINUES WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OVER 40
MPH AND AS HIGH AS 60 MPH DURING THE EVENING. WINDS WILL START OUT
SOUTH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...GO SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN WEST LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

UPGRADED THE GALE WARNING TO A STORM WARNING. IN ADDITION TO STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY STRONG GRADIENT WINDS WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WEST STORM FORCE WINDS TO
55 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
DECREASING TO 40 KNOT GALES. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 10 TO 15 FEET
TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN STORMS TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.
LOOK FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. THIS LIKELY WON'T CAUSE RIVER FLOODING. HOWEVER
LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY DEVELOP IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

MESOSCALE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1210 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-181115-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
1210 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AS A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 2 PM AND 6 PM. THE MAIN THREAT
IS DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH BUT SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
ALSO BRING TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL. SIGNIFICANT LONG TRACKED
TORNADOES ARE A POSSIBILITY. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THE STORMS COULD ALSO CAUSE MINOR FLOODING.

EVEN AFTER THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH...THE THREAT FOR HIGH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE AS
THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER SLOWLY MOVES AWAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE MONDAY MORNING
COMMUTE...BUT THE SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

LMZ844>849-181115-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
1210 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN BETWEEN 1 PM AND 4 PM WITH HIGH WINDS...CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTING...AND HEAVY RAIN. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BRING LARGE HAIL
AND WATERSPOUTS.

SOUTHWEST GALES TO 35 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO STORM FORCE OF 50
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST STORM FORCE WINDS TO 55 KNOTS THIS
EVENING WILL BACK TO THE WEST AND DECREASE TO GALES TO 40 KNOTS
LATE TONIGHT.

WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND UP TO 15
FEET TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS TO MARINERS INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

OSTUNO MEADE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
228 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0227 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 S MUSKEGON            43.17N 86.24W
11/17/2013  M45 MPH          MUSKEGON           MI   ASOS

&&

JMAPLES

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