Severe Thunderstorm Warning 227, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
205 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION....CAUSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE TO RETREAT WEST
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE RESULTING NORTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD
HAD LED TO COOLING AIR ALOFT...THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF A LATE SUMMER
COLD FRONT AND BENEFICIAL RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE SURFACE FRONT...SEEMINGLY LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS ALONG A LINE ROUGHLY FROM PALESTINE
LAMPASAS...PROVIDES FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
REMAIN MARGINAL ONCE AGAIN TODAY DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE LACK OF
SUFFICIENT SHEAR IN PLACE. HOWEVER...ML CAPE APPROACHING 1500 J/KG
COMBINED WITH PWATS AROUND 2 IN SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH TEXAS... ADEQUATE MOISTURE
WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. THIS IS SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON HOW
QUICKLY OR EFFECTIVELY THE LINGERING CLOUDCOVER FROM THIS MORNING/S
ACTIVITY DISPERSES. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR WHERE
CLOUDCOVER THINS ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB TO NEAR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S. THE DRIEST AIR WILL RESIDE NEAR THE
RED RIVER...WHERE THE LOWEST RAIN CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED.

DRIER AIR COMBINED WITH STRONGER SUBSIDENCE SHOULD THEN LEAD TO
A DRY FORECAST ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT-
LIVED...BECAUSE BY THURSDAY NIGHT A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...EVENTUALLY BARRELING INTO NORTH TEXAS BY FRIDAY. GOOD
ASCENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE A DECENT CHANCE OF SOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM
WILL EXIT AS QUICKLY AS IT ARRIVES...BRINGING DRY WEATHER BACK
INTO THE PICTURE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUT A DAMPER ON THE
HEAT WAVE AND BRING TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
READINGS MAY EVEN BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN BY THE WEEKEND.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  92  70  91  70 /  20  10  10  20  10
WACO, TX              74  92  68  94  68 /  40  30  10  20  10
PARIS, TX             63  86  63  87  64 /  10   5  10  30  10
DENTON, TX            70  90  67  89  68 /  10  10  10  30  10
MCKINNEY, TX          67  90  64  90  66 /  10  10  10  30  10
DALLAS, TX            73  92  70  91  71 /  20  10  10  30  10
TERRELL, TX           69  91  65  91  66 /  20  10  10  30  10
CORSICANA, TX         72  92  67  93  67 /  30  10  10  30  10
TEMPLE, TX            73  93  69  94  68 /  40  30  10  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  92  68  91  67 /  30  30  10  30  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

92/30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
215 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-151130-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
215 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
ON THURSDAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM BRECKENRIDGE TO HILLSBORO TO
CENTERVILLE. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
VERY LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
312 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

TXZ156-142045-
LAMPASAS TX-
312 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN LAMPASAS COUNTY

AT 312 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF COPPERAS COVE...STATIONARY.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3107 9813 3118 9799 3107 9790 3103 9792
      3103 9809
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 326DEG 2KT 3106 9799

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
351 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

TXZ158-142115-
BELL TX-
351 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  BELL COUNTY

AT 352 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTH OF TEMPLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BELTON...FORT HOOD...HARKER
HEIGHTS...HOLLAND...KILLEEN...LITTLE RIVER-ACADEMY...MORGAN'S POINT
RESORT...NOLANVILLE...SALADO...TEMPLE AND TROY.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3084 9757 3087 9765 3090 9779 3099 9789
      3103 9792 3107 9790 3125 9756 3130 9740
      3124 9734 3128 9729 3127 9727 3108 9715
      3081 9735
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 329DEG 10KT 3119 9738

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
457 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-150200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
457 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

...THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO TEST HAS BEEN DELAYED UNTIL
THURSDAY...AUGUST 15 2013...

DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING...THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO
TEST HAS BEEN DELAYED UNTIL THURSDAY. WE APOLOGIZE FOR THE
INCONVENIENCE.

05/

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
546 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

TXZ162-142315-
LEON TX-
546 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WESTERN LEON COUNTY

AT 546 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF TEAGUE...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CENTERVILLE.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

LAT...LON 3123 9588 3112 9611 3136 9624 3145 9605
TIME...MOT...LOC 2246Z 325DEG 17KT 3131 9606

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
549 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

TXZ147-161-142315-
FREESTONE TX-LIMESTONE TX-
549 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTH CENTRAL FREESTONE COUNTY
  EAST CENTRAL LIMESTONE COUNTY

AT 548 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES SOUTH OF TEAGUE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 55
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE TEAGUE AND GROESBECK.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.  VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

LAT...LON 3147 9612 3135 9635 3156 9652 3170 9629
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 324DEG 49KT 3139 9622

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
555 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

TXZ118-133-142330-
JOHNSON TX-TARRANT TX-
555 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY
  SOUTHEASTERN TARRANT COUNTY

AT 555 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER FOREST HILL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ARLINGTON...BURLESON...
CROWLEY...DALWORTHINGTON GARDENS...EDGECLIFF...EVERMAN...FOREST
HILL...KENNEDALE...MANSFIELD...PANTEGO AND RENDON.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3269 9703 3255 9704 3254 9709 3249 9709
      3249 9717 3248 9738 3270 9739 3277 9706
TIME...MOT...LOC 2255Z 327DEG 18KT 3266 9723