Severe Thunderstorm Warning 225, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
205 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION....CAUSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE TO RETREAT WEST
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE RESULTING NORTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD
HAD LED TO COOLING AIR ALOFT...THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF A LATE SUMMER
COLD FRONT AND BENEFICIAL RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE SURFACE FRONT...SEEMINGLY LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS ALONG A LINE ROUGHLY FROM PALESTINE
LAMPASAS...PROVIDES FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
REMAIN MARGINAL ONCE AGAIN TODAY DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE LACK OF
SUFFICIENT SHEAR IN PLACE. HOWEVER...ML CAPE APPROACHING 1500 J/KG
COMBINED WITH PWATS AROUND 2 IN SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH TEXAS... ADEQUATE MOISTURE
WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. THIS IS SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON HOW
QUICKLY OR EFFECTIVELY THE LINGERING CLOUDCOVER FROM THIS MORNING/S
ACTIVITY DISPERSES. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR WHERE
CLOUDCOVER THINS ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB TO NEAR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S. THE DRIEST AIR WILL RESIDE NEAR THE
RED RIVER...WHERE THE LOWEST RAIN CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED.

DRIER AIR COMBINED WITH STRONGER SUBSIDENCE SHOULD THEN LEAD TO
A DRY FORECAST ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT-
LIVED...BECAUSE BY THURSDAY NIGHT A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...EVENTUALLY BARRELING INTO NORTH TEXAS BY FRIDAY. GOOD
ASCENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE A DECENT CHANCE OF SOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM
WILL EXIT AS QUICKLY AS IT ARRIVES...BRINGING DRY WEATHER BACK
INTO THE PICTURE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUT A DAMPER ON THE
HEAT WAVE AND BRING TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
READINGS MAY EVEN BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN BY THE WEEKEND.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  92  70  91  70 /  20  10  10  20  10
WACO, TX              74  92  68  94  68 /  40  30  10  20  10
PARIS, TX             63  86  63  87  64 /  10   5  10  30  10
DENTON, TX            70  90  67  89  68 /  10  10  10  30  10
MCKINNEY, TX          67  90  64  90  66 /  10  10  10  30  10
DALLAS, TX            73  92  70  91  71 /  20  10  10  30  10
TERRELL, TX           69  91  65  91  66 /  20  10  10  30  10
CORSICANA, TX         72  92  67  93  67 /  30  10  10  30  10
TEMPLE, TX            73  93  69  94  68 /  40  30  10  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  92  68  91  67 /  30  30  10  30  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

92/30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
215 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-151130-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
215 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
ON THURSDAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM BRECKENRIDGE TO HILLSBORO TO
CENTERVILLE. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
VERY LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 THROUGH THIS EVENING.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1106 AM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TSTM WND DMG     REAGOR SPRINGS          32.33N  96.77W
08/13/2013                   ELLIS              TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A CARPORT WAS BLOWN OVER, SEVERAL LARGE BRANCHES WERE
            BLOWN DOWN, AND SHEET METAL ROOFS WERE PEELED OFF SEVERAL
            BUILDINGS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
158 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

TXZ158-141930-
BELL TX-
158 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTH CENTRAL BELL COUNTY

AT 158 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES NORTH OF GRANGER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
10 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE HOLLAND.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3080 9744 3081 9748 3090 9755 3101 9738
      3089 9726 3075 9732 3075 9733
TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 326DEG 10KT 3088 9740

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
231 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

TXZ158-142000-
BELL TX-
231 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTH CENTRAL BELL COUNTY

AT 231 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES SOUTH OF BELTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE HOLLAND.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3083 9753 3092 9759 3101 9741 3086 9727
      3077 9731 3075 9734
TIME...MOT...LOC 1931Z 328DEG 6KT 3089 9744