Severe Thunderstorm Warning 34, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
955 AM MST TUE AUG 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER ARIZONA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH
STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TODAY FOR YAVAPAI AND WESTERN
COCONINO COUNTY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WET MONSOON WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE MAIN THREATS THIS WEEK WILL
BE FROM LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IN HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TODAY FROM 11AM TO 11PM MST OVER
YAVAPAI AND WESTERN COCONINO COUNTIES.

DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. FORECAST MODELS ARE PICKING UP AN INVERTED TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS TROUGH WILL
PUSH NORTHWESTWARD UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE
WEEK...CAUSING A STRONG SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SURGE INTO ARIZONA
STARING ON THURSDAY. THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE
OUR CHANCES FOR RAIN FROM FRIDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY. WE WILL LIKELY
BE INCREASING OUR CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IN THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST PRODUCTS.

THE SHORT TERM MORNING FORECAST GRIDS LOOK GOOD...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL REMAINS
IN PLACE ALONG WESTERN YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...EXPECT RAINSHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE
AFTER 18Z. THESE STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG AND WEST OF A
KPGA-KFLG-KPAN LINE. EXPECT PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLD
IFR/LIFR WITHIN HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY 11 AM MST
TIL 11 PM MST FOR YAVAPAI AND WESTERN COCONINO COUNTIES...AZ ZONES
004>008-015-037-038.

&&

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......RICKEY

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

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