Flash Flood Warning 33, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 PM MST MON AUG 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN
ARIZONA TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING.
A SLOW DRYING TREND WILL BRING A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN TO THE
REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL CONTINUE WITH DEEP MOISTURE...AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW REPLENISHING INSTABILITY. STORMS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS ALONG AND WEST OF A PAGE-FLAGSTAFF-PAYSON LINE WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
NO UPDATES ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...STREAMLINES ARE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MIXING RATIO VALUES ARE DOWN A BIT. AFTERNOON
LIFTED INDICES ARE RUNNING FROM -1 TO -3 THOUGH AND SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS COCONINO AND NORTHERN YAVAPAI
COUNTIES.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PROGS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER MOISTURE
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST STARTING EARLY THURSDAY. PROGS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING AN INVERTED TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN AZ THURSDAY
AND THIS IS LIKELY LEFTOVERS FROM THE NOW DEFUNCT FERNAND. MIXING
RATIOS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER ARE INCREASING AGAIN...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RIM. PRECIP CHANCES FOR THIS PERIOD WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS TROPICAL MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE. STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG AND EAST OF A
KPGA-KFLG-KPAN LINE. EXPECT PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLD
IFR/LIFR WITHIN HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY. PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE
RESULTING IN LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AFTER 18Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM/DL
AVIATION.......MCCOLLUM/CO

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
550 AM MST MON AUG 26 2013

AZZ004>018-037>040-270700-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
550 AM MST MON AUG 26 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
THE I-17 CORRIDOR. ONE DIFFERENCE FROM YESTERDAY WILL BE A PARTLY
CLOUDY START TO THE DAY...INSTEAD OF OVERCAST. THIS WILL ALLOW MORE
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP...WHICH WILL LEAD TO STRONGER STORMS
THAT MAY CONTAIN TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND HAIL. STORM MOTION IS
AROUND 30 MPH FROM THE SOUTH TODAY...SO SLOW MOVING STORMS SHOULD
NOT BE A PROBLEM. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE LOCATED ALONG AND
WEST OF THE I-17 CORRIDOR AND NORTHWARD TO GRAND CANYON COUNTRY. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THESE LOCATIONS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A DRYING TREND WILL BRING MORE TYPICAL MONSOON ACTIVITY TOP THE
REGION BY TUESDAY...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WORK WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
643 PM MST MON AUG 26 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 SW PHANTOM RANCH      36.08N 112.13W
08/26/2013                   COCONINO           AZ   PARK SERVICE

            FLASH FLOODING REPORTED ALONG GARDEN CREEK AT INDIAN
            GARDENS. MINOR DAMAGE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1300074

DM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
650 PM MST MON AUG 26 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SUPAI                   36.22N 112.69W
08/26/2013                   COCONINO           AZ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            RAPID RISE REPORTED ON HAVASU CREEK AT SUPAI GAGE
            MEASUREMENT OF 17.31 FEET. MINOR FLOODING STAGE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1300075

DM