Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2013

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

August 27, 2013Apache County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 27, 2013, 3:04 PM MST for Apache County, Arizona. It was in force for 26 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Aug 27, 2013, 3:04 PM MST (22:04 UTC)
Expired
Aug 27, 2013, 3:30 PM MST
In force
26 min
Issued by
NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Area
Storm-based polygon

County Apache County, AZ

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 181 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Phoenix, AZ (KPSR), launched 12:00Z, 10.1 hours before the alert went out and 316 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Phoenix, AZ at 12:00Z on 2013-08-27Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 469 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Phoenix, AZ at 12:00Z on 2013-08-27The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 6 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
469 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-295 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1801 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
2 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
6 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
100 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 27, 9:55 AM MST, 5 hours 9 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 27, 9:55 AM MST, 5 hours 9 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
955 AM MST TUE AUG 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER ARIZONA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH
STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TODAY FOR YAVAPAI AND WESTERN
COCONINO COUNTY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WET MONSOON WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE MAIN THREATS THIS WEEK WILL
BE FROM LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IN HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TODAY FROM 11AM TO 11PM MST OVER
YAVAPAI AND WESTERN COCONINO COUNTIES.

DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. FORECAST MODELS ARE PICKING UP AN INVERTED TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS TROUGH WILL
PUSH NORTHWESTWARD UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE
WEEK...CAUSING A STRONG SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SURGE INTO ARIZONA
STARING ON THURSDAY. THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE
OUR CHANCES FOR RAIN FROM FRIDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY. WE WILL LIKELY
BE INCREASING OUR CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IN THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST PRODUCTS.

THE SHORT TERM MORNING FORECAST GRIDS LOOK GOOD...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL REMAINS
IN PLACE ALONG WESTERN YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...EXPECT RAINSHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE
AFTER 18Z. THESE STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG AND WEST OF A
KPGA-KFLG-KPAN LINE. EXPECT PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLD
IFR/LIFR WITHIN HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY 11 AM MST
TIL 11 PM MST FOR YAVAPAI AND WESTERN COCONINO COUNTIES...AZ ZONES
004>008-015-037-038.

&&

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......RICKEY

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 27, 5:50 AM MST, 9 hours 14 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
550 AM MST TUE AUG 27 2013

AZZ004>018-037>040-280700-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
550 AM MST TUE AUG 27 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA SHOULD
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DROPPING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TODAY 11 AM MST TIL 11 PM MST FOR
AREAS BASICALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM PAGE TO BLACK CANYON CITY. SEE
PHXFFAFGZ FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...SOME
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. MONSOON MOISTURE CONTENT SHOULD INCREASE
STARTING THURSDAY AND REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Aug 27, 12:47 PM MST, 2 hours 17 minutes before
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The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 26, 5:36 PM MSTFlash Flood WarningFGZCoconino6 hr
Aug 26, 6:31 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZNavajo29 min
Aug 26, 7:01 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZNavajo44 min
Aug 26, 9:20 PM MSTFlash Flood WarningFGZYavapai55 min
Aug 26, 10:18 PM MSTFlash Flood WarningFGZYavapai117 min
Aug 26, 11:29 PM MSTAreal Flood AdvisoryFGZCoconino6 hr
Aug 27, 12:36 AM MSTAreal Flood AdvisoryFGZCoconino4 hr
Aug 27, 5:40 AM MSTFlash Flood WatchFGZCoconino, Yavapai15 hr
Aug 27, 12:39 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZCoconino36 min
Aug 27, 1:18 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZNavajo27 min
Aug 27, 1:48 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZCoconino27 min
Aug 27, 3:26 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZCoconino, Yavapai34 min
Aug 27, 3:46 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZApache29 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2013Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.