Alert archive / North Dakota / Special Weather Statements in 2013

Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Forks, ND

June 20, 2013Nelson County, North Dakota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this special weather statement at Jun 20, 2013, 11:16 AM CDT for Nelson County, North Dakota. It was in force for 44 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 20, 2013, 11:16 AM CDT (16:16 UTC)
Expired: Jun 20, 2013, 12:00 PM CDT
In force: 44 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND

County Nelson County, ND

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 66 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 4.3 hours before the alert went out and 219 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 921 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -317 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 830 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 21 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 246 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 414 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 2.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jun 20, 9:43 AM CDT, 1 hour 33 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 20, 9:43 AM CDT, 1 hour 33 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
943 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO
OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWARD TOWARDS VALLEY CITY. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN
SOME STORMS FIRING AROUND THE THIEF RIVER FALLS TO BEMIDJI AREAS.
BUMPED UP POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST.
THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE CENTRAL CWA THROUGH MID DAY BEFORE
MORE ACTIVITY MOVES IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LOWERED TEMPS JUST A
TAD FOR MORE PRECIP AND CLOUDS THAN EXPECTED...BUT THINK THERE
SHOULD STILL GET ENOUGH HEATING TO GET INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S WITH GOOD INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE
WITH SEVERE MENTION INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL
MONITOR PREDICTED QPF AMOUNTS GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS OVER
THE SOUTHERN CWA AND IF WE NEED ANY FLOOD WATCH PRODUCTS LATER ON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING. TWEAKED POPS AND WX
ACCORDING TO CURRENT CONDITIONS AND LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE FOR THE
MORNING HOURS. PORTIONS OF SARGENT AND RANSOM COUNTY LIKELY
RECEIVED UP TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN...AND MAJOR FLOODING ISSUES ARE
BEING REPORTED. REPORTS ARE JUST COMING INTO THE OFFICE...AND
THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF UNKNOWNS AT THIS POINT. THE SEVERE THREAT
FOR THE MORNING HOURS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FA...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A SEVERE BOW JUST SOUTH OF THE FA THAT WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR.

ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE TO THE NORTH. IT MAY CLIP OUR NORTHWESTERN FA...AND WILL
MONITOR. THIS ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY NOT SEVERE.

THE SEVERE THREAT IS STILL ON TRACK FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN ACTIVITY
TODAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW HEATING AND MOISTURE RETURN...LEADING TO
AN ELEVATED SEVERE THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE THUNDER AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA
(AND BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN FA) WHERE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES AN UPPER WAVE AND THE RAP INDICATES 30-40 KNOT 850MB JET
INDUCED BY THIS UPPER WAVE. ANTICIPATE THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATE WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE WAVE. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS VERY LOW CONSIDERING WEAK
INSTABILITY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS AROUND
1.5 INCHES AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS.

ANTICIPATE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY DURING THE MID-DAY HOURS WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME HEATING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION...WITH MLCAPE
VALUES AOA 2000 J/KG SOME AREAS. FORCING FOR REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD
COME WITH A POSSIBLE MCV FROM ACTIVITY TO THE WEST (ACROSS
NORTHERN MONTANA) AS WELL AS AN UPPER WAVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THAT
SOME MODEL INDICATE. PREFER TO FOLLOW THE ECMWF FOR DEWPOINT
VALUES CONSIDERING LACK OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATION DUE TO LATE CROPS
THIS YEAR. THIS SOLUTION WOULD HAVE MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG INTO SE
NORTH DAKOTA BY 21Z...WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH
AND EAST (AND THE INSTABILITY AXIS INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA). MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THUNDER INITIATES ALONG THE
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY/DRY LINE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND
EVENTUALLY BECOMES SOME SORT OF MCS THAT BUILDS INTO THE HIGHER
STABILITY (WHICH MOST LIKELY WILL BE TO THE SOUTH). THE MAIN
THREATS WILL LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL AND ESPECIALLY WIND GUSTS. A
TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY INITIALLY. OTHER
MODELS ARE MORE ROBUST WITH DEWPOINTS VALUES (INTO THE LOW/MID
70S...AND WELL NORTH INTO THE FA)...WHICH LIKELY ACCOUNTS FOR THEM
WANTING TO MOVE THE MCS TO THE EAST INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF WHICH MOVES THIS FEATURE INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. HEAVY RAIN ALSO A THREAT WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.5
INCHES. NOT SURE EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT...BUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FA WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...REGION WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL HINGE ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVES
EJECTING FROM THE WESTERN TROUGH. FOLLOWING THE ECMWF FOR
TIMING...KEPT THE LIKELY POPS FOR FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...AND AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERE STORMS AGAIN A
POSSIBILITY...AND DEPENDENT ON INSTABILITY VALUES. THE SOUTHERN FA
APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS. HEAVY RAIN ALSO
A POSSIBILITY...AND FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER FLOOD/FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS TODAY.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH RE-ESTABLISHES FARTHER WEST
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
CENTRAL US BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR
TIMING WISE AT 84 HOURS BUT THE ECMWF BECOMES THE FASTER SOLUTION
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS.

PRECIPITATION IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH TODAYS RUNS AND WILL BE SUED.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 710 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY MOST
AREAS...AND ATTEMPTED TO INDICATE THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD OF
OCCURRENCE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...TG

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 20, 5:00 AM CDT, 6 hours 16 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
500 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-211200-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-
GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-
WESTERN WALSH-
500 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING. SOME
LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A LARGE COMPLEX IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...AND A COUPLE TORNADOES ARE ANTICIPATED. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...AND AGAIN LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE AND MAY CAUSE FLOODING ISSUES DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OCCUR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TG

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 20, 8:47 AM CDT, 2 hours 29 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
847 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 AM     FLASH FLOOD      6 N GWINNER             46.31N 97.66W
06/20/2013                   RANSOM             ND   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            ND HWY 32 CLOSED BETWEEN GWINNER AND LISBON AT DEAD COLT
            CREEK...TIME ESTIMATED BASED OFF OF RADAR.

&&

JKAISER

Local storm report, Jun 20, 8:51 AM CDT, 2 hours 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
851 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 AM     HEAVY RAIN       HANKINSON               46.07N 96.89W
06/20/2013  M3.30 INCH       RICHLAND           ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

0838 AM     HEAVY RAIN       FORMAN                  46.11N 97.64W
06/20/2013  M1.88 INCH       SARGENT            ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

0838 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 S FORMAN              46.09N 97.64W
06/20/2013  M2.05 INCH       SARGENT            ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

HOPKINS

Local storm report, Jun 20, 9:45 AM CDT, 1 hour 31 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
945 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 AM     FLASH FLOOD      8 W GWINNER             46.22N 97.83W
06/20/2013                   SARGENT            ND   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            HWY 13 WASHED OUT 8 MILES WEST OF GWINNER...TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

0515 AM     FLASH FLOOD      GWINNER                 46.22N 97.66W
06/20/2013                   SARGENT            ND   PUBLIC

            FACEBOOK POST VIA MEDIA PARTNER...BOBCAT PLANT INUNDATED
            AND CLOSED WITH FLOOD WATERS...MANY BASEMENTS FLOODED.

0515 AM     FLASH FLOOD      6 N GWINNER             46.31N 97.66W
06/20/2013                   RANSOM             ND   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            ND HWY 32 CLOSED BETWEEN GWINNER AND LISBON AT DEAD COLT
            CREEK...TIME ESTIMATED BASED OFF OF RADAR.

0815 AM     HEAVY RAIN       HANKINSON               46.07N 96.89W
06/20/2013  M3.30 INCH       RICHLAND           ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

0838 AM     HEAVY RAIN       FORMAN                  46.11N 97.64W
06/20/2013  M1.88 INCH       SARGENT            ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

0838 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 S FORMAN              46.09N 97.64W
06/20/2013  M2.05 INCH       SARGENT            ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

HOPKINS

Local storm report, Jun 20, 10:19 AM CDT, 57 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1019 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 AM     HEAVY RAIN       LISBON                  46.44N 97.68W
06/20/2013  E5.00 INCH       RANSOM             ND   NEWSPAPER

0845 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MILNOR                  46.26N 97.46W
06/20/2013  E6.00 INCH       SARGENT            ND   NEWSPAPER

0845 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MCLEOD                  46.39N 97.30W
06/20/2013  E2.30 INCH       RANSOM             ND   NEWSPAPER

&&

HOPKINS

Local storm report, Jun 20, 11:01 AM CDT, 15 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1101 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 AM     HAIL             1 SW FILLMORE           48.17N 99.82W
06/20/2013  E1.00 INCH       BENSON             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED HAIL AROUND QUARTER SIZED AND 50 MPH WINDS.

&&

JAM

Special weather statement, Jun 20, 11:16 AM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1116 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

NDZ024-026-028-029-201700-
EDDY ND-GRIGGS ND-NELSON ND-STEELE ND-
1116 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN STEELE...SOUTHERN
NELSON...NORTHERN GRIGGS AND EASTERN EDDY COUNTIES UNTIL NOON CDT...

AT 1111 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MCVILLE...OR 37 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF DEVILS LAKE...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS EXPECTED WITH THE STORM.

THE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
PEKIN AROUND 1125 AM CDT.
MCVILLE AROUND 1135 AM CDT.
KLOTEN AROUND 1140 AM CDT.
ANETA AROUND 1145 AM CDT.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IF THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND BECOME
SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4775 9857 4799 9789 4767 9788 4767 9770
      4749 9834
TIME...MOT...LOC 1616Z 244DEG 25KT 4770 9834

PJS/JAM

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 20, 1:18 PM CDT	Flash Flood Watch	FGF	Becker, Beltrami, Clay, Clearwater, Grant, Hubbard and 12 more	39 hr
Jun 20, 6:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Clay, Norman, Polk	46 min
Jun 19, 7:45 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	FGF	Benson	60 min
Jun 19, 11:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Sargent	44 min
Jun 19, 11:31 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	FGF	Sargent	59 min
Jun 20, 12:23 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	FGF	Ransom	37 min
Jun 20, 12:31 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Richland, Sargent	44 min
Jun 20, 2:48 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	FGF	Ransom, Richland, Sargent	33 hr
Jun 20, 3:58 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	FGF	Sargent	32 min
Jun 20, 4:15 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	FGF	Ransom, Richland, Sargent	8 hr
Jun 20, 10:41 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Benson, Ramsey, Towner	49 min
Jun 20, 11:44 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	FGF	Ransom, Richland, Sargent	24 hr
Jun 20, 12:28 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	FGF	Nelson	62 min
Jun 20, 3:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Griggs	39 min
Jun 20, 5:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Cass, Steele, Traill	44 min
Jun 20, 5:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Barnes	51 min
Jun 20, 5:58 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Barnes	47 min
Jun 20, 6:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Cass, Traill	40 min
Jun 20, 6:42 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Barnes, Cass, Griggs, Steele	48 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in North Dakota, 2013 Every special weather statement in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.