Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Grand Forks, ND

506 
WWUS53 KFGF 202114
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
414 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

NDC039-202130-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0008.000000T0000Z-130620T2130Z/
GRIGGS ND-
414 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN
GRIGGS COUNTY UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

AT 413 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR COOPERSTOWN...
AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN
GRIGGS COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS!

&&

LAT...LON 4731 9846 4748 9828 4749 9826 4732 9797
      4724 9797 4724 9839 4724 9845 4725 9846
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 253DEG 38KT 4744 9806

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

HOPKINS/JAM

119 
WWUS53 KFGF 202121
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
421 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

NDC039-202131-
/O.EXP.KFGF.SV.W.0008.000000T0000Z-130620T2130Z/
GRIGGS ND-
421 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN GRIGGS COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 430 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.  HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

IN ADDITION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 4731 9846 4748 9828 4749 9826 4732 9797
      4724 9797 4724 9839 4724 9845 4725 9846
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 253DEG 38KT 4746 9795

$$

HOPKINS/JAM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
305 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

CONVECTION TIMING AND STRENGTH CONTINUES TO BE THE HEADACHE FOR
THE SHORT TERM.

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
FROM NEAR MAYVILLE NORTH TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. NONE OF THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CONVECTION. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME CLEARING AND HIGH CAPE VALUES IN SOUTH CENTRAL ND
EXTENDING INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA...ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH HAS
DEVELOPED IN THAT AREA SO FAR. THINK THAT AS A WEAK SFC LOW OVER
NORTH CENTRAL SD BEGINS TO EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA...THERE
COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH AND SOME COULD
BE SEVERE GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND
30 TO 40 KTS...ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS BETTER FURTHER WEST. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP VERY HIGH POPS FROM EASTERN ND EARLY
TRANSITIONING INTO MN LATER TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
BE PROBABLE SO WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH VARIOUS WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE AREA. THERE
IS A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES AND
WHERE AND WHEN EXACTLY THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. THINK AT
THIS POINT THERE WILL BE A LINGERING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FRIDAY
MORNING OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND THEN A BIT OF A BREAK DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND MOVES IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
OR NIGHT. DID NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY ON POPS HOWEVER AS THERE WAS A
BREAK EXPECTED FOR TODAY THAT DID NOT MATERIALIZE. CONTINUED TO
KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURE WISE...WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS THE BIGGEST INFLUENCES WILL BE CLOUDS AND PRECIP
WHICH ARE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT. WITH HIGH DEW POINTS THE LOWS
WILL STAY MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE 70S TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

SATURDAY...THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST RAIN IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...BUT SOME LOCATIONS GETTING 2 TO 3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAIN IS POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 50-70 POPS AND THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH GOING. SEVERITY IS LESS CERTAIN BUT NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE IN THE 70S TO
MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

GFS/ECMWF EARLY IN THE LONG TERM DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF H500
CLOSED LOW...WITH ECMWF PLACING LOW AT 18Z SUN OVER WEST CENTRAL
SASK COMPARED TO GFS PLACEMENT OVER THE BOTTINEAU ND REGION. THIS
WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO BETTER PINPOINT SUNDAY RAIN/CONVECTION
ACTIVITY...BUT DO LOOK FOR A CONTINUATION OF ACTIVITY INTO EARLY
MON MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY. UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL OVER NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS UPPER LOW PULLS OUT (ON BOTH MODELS)...AND
HAVE REMOVED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY FOR MON. SW
FLOW PATTERN THEN RETURNS MON NIGHT...WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ALTHOUGH SFC PATTERNS DIFFER. WILL BE A
DECENT CHANCE FOR MORE CONVECTION LATE MON EVENING/EARLY TUE
MORNING SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE VALLEY. BEYOND MON...UPPER PATTERN
COMPARISON FURTHER DIVERGES BUT BOTH INDICATE AN ACTIVE PATTERN
THROUGH MID WEEK...AND LOW CHANCE POPS MAKE SENSE WITH STORM TRACK
GENERALLY ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS THROUGH WED NIGHT...AND UPPER
RIDGING BRINGING DRIER WEATHER FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY. &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE MOST PART
TODAY...HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND LAST WELL INTO THE NIGHT. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE SOUTHEAST BUT RAPID CHANGES IN DIRECTION DUE TO TSTMS AND/OR
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH STORMS NEAR THE
AIRFIELDS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR MNZ001>005-007-008-
     013>015-022-027-029-030-040.

&&

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
500 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-211200-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-
GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-
WESTERN WALSH-
500 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING. SOME
LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A LARGE COMPLEX IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...AND A COUPLE TORNADOES ARE ANTICIPATED. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...AND AGAIN LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE AND MAY CAUSE FLOODING ISSUES DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OCCUR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1019 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 AM     HEAVY RAIN       LISBON                  46.44N 97.68W
06/20/2013  E5.00 INCH       RANSOM             ND   NEWSPAPER

0845 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MILNOR                  46.26N 97.46W
06/20/2013  E6.00 INCH       SARGENT            ND   NEWSPAPER

0845 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MCLEOD                  46.39N 97.30W
06/20/2013  E2.30 INCH       RANSOM             ND   NEWSPAPER

&&

HOPKINS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1101 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 AM     HAIL             1 SW FILLMORE           48.17N 99.82W
06/20/2013  E1.00 INCH       BENSON             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED HAIL AROUND QUARTER SIZED AND 50 MPH WINDS.

&&

JAM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1116 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

NDZ024-026-028-029-201700-
EDDY ND-GRIGGS ND-NELSON ND-STEELE ND-
1116 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN STEELE...SOUTHERN
NELSON...NORTHERN GRIGGS AND EASTERN EDDY COUNTIES UNTIL NOON CDT...

AT 1111 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MCVILLE...OR 37 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF DEVILS LAKE...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS EXPECTED WITH THE STORM.

THE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
PEKIN AROUND 1125 AM CDT.
MCVILLE AROUND 1135 AM CDT.
KLOTEN AROUND 1140 AM CDT.
ANETA AROUND 1145 AM CDT.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IF THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND BECOME
SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4775 9857 4799 9789 4767 9788 4767 9770
      4749 9834
TIME...MOT...LOC 1616Z 244DEG 25KT 4770 9834

PJS/JAM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1228 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

NDZ014-015-024-026-028-054-201830-
BENSON ND-EDDY ND-GRIGGS ND-NELSON ND-RAMSEY ND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY
ND-
1228 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN WALSH...SOUTHERN
RAMSEY...NELSON...EXTREME NORTHEASTERN GRIGGS...NORTHEASTERN EDDY AND
SOUTHEASTERN BENSON COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM CDT...

AT 1225 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A THUNDERSTORM 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAKOTA...OR 23 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF DEVILS LAKE...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.

THE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
TOLNA AROUND 1235 PM CDT.
STUMP LAKE AND PEKIN AROUND 1240 PM CDT.
MCVILLE AND LAKOTA AROUND 1250 PM CDT.
KLOTEN AROUND 1255 PM CDT.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IF THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND BECOME
SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 4826 9799 4793 9791 4767 9788 4768 9872
      4787 9879
TIME...MOT...LOC 1727Z 250DEG 33KT 4784 9857

JM/JK