Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Becker County, MN, Beltrami County, MN, Clay County, MN, Clearwater County, MN, Grant County, MN, Hubbard County, MN, Kittson County, MN, Lake of the Woods County, MN, Mahnomen County, MN, Marshall County, MN, Norman County, MN, Otter Tail County, MN, Pennington County, MN, Polk County, MN, Red Lake County, MN, Roseau County, MN, Wadena County, MN, Wilkin County, MN, Barnes County, ND, Benson County, ND, Cass County, ND, Cavalier County, ND, Eddy County, ND, Grand Forks County, ND, Griggs County, ND, Nelson County, ND, Pembina County, ND, Ramsey County, ND, Ransom County, ND, Richland County, ND, Sargent County, ND, Steele County, ND, Towner County, ND, Traill County, ND, Walsh County, ND

791 
WGUS63 KFGF 210303
FFAFGF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1003 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

.PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEVERAL AREAS
OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA HAVE PICKED UP LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN
OVER THE PAST TWENTY FOUR HOURS AND CANNOT HANDLE MUCH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL. WITH THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SUNDAY THE POTENTIAL IS HIGH FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACROSS
ALREADY SOAKED AREAS.

MNZ001>005-007-008-013>015-022-027-029-030-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-
024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054-231200-
/O.CON.KFGF.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-130623T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-
PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-EAST POLK-MAHNOMEN-WEST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-
EASTERN WALSH-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-
CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROOKSTON...EAST GRAND FORKS...
HALSTAD...MOORHEAD...HALLOCK...ROSEAU...WARREN...NEWFOLDEN...
THIEF RIVER FALLS...RED LAKE FALLS...FOSSTON...MAHNOMEN...
DETROIT LAKES...BRECKENRIDGE...FERGUS FALLS...ELBOW LAKE...
CANDO...LANGDON...CAVALIER...MADDOCK...LEEDS...DEVILS LAKE...
GRAFTON...NEW ROCKFORD...LAKOTA...GRAND FORKS...COOPERSTOWN...
FINLEY...MAYVILLE...VALLEY CITY...FARGO...LISBON...GWINNER...
WAHPETON...ADAMS
1003 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING AREAS...IN MINNESOTA...CLAY...EAST MARSHALL...EAST 
  POLK...GRANT...KITTSON...MAHNOMEN...NORMAN...PENNINGTON...RED 
  LAKE...ROSEAU...WEST BECKER...WEST MARSHALL...WEST OTTER 
  TAIL...WEST POLK AND WILKIN. IN NORTH DAKOTA...BARNES... 
  BENSON...CASS...CAVALIER...EASTERN WALSH...EDDY...GRAND 
  FORKS...GRIGGS...NELSON...PEMBINA...RAMSEY...RANSOM... 
  RICHLAND...SARGENT...STEELE...TOWNER...TRAILL AND WESTERN 
  WALSH. 

* THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING

* PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST OF THE
  WEEKEND. THE RAIN WILL NOT BE CONTINUOUS...BUT SOME LOCATIONS
  COULD SEE OVER 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. THIS COULD CREATE
  FLASH FLOODING ISSUES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IN SOME AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

625 
WGUS63 KFGF 211006
FFAFGF

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
506 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND ALL OF NORTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

.PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEVERAL
AREAS OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA RECEIVED
LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER THE PAST TWENTY FOUR HOURS AND CANNOT
HANDLE MUCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL IS HIGH FOR ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ACROSS ALREADY SOAKED AREAS.

MNZ006-009-016-017-023-024-028-031-032-231200-
/O.EXA.KFGF.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-130623T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LAKE OF THE WOODS-NORTH BELTRAMI-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-EAST BECKER-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BAUDETTE...RED LAKE...BAGLEY...
BEMIDJI...LAKE ITASCA...PARK RAPIDS...WOLF LAKE...
NEW YORK MILLS...WADENA
506 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS EXPANDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA... 
  NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL 
  MINNESOTA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN CENTRAL 
  MINNESOTA...WADENA. IN NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...HUBBARD... 
  LAKE OF THE WOODS...NORTH BELTRAMI AND SOUTH BELTRAMI. IN 
  NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...EAST BECKER...NORTH CLEARWATER AND SOUTH 
  CLEARWATER. IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...EAST OTTER TAIL. 

* THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING

* PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST OF 
  THE WEEKEND. THE RAIN WILL NOT BE CONTINUOUS...BUT SOME 
  LOCATIONS COULD SEE OVER 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. THIS 
  COULD CREATE FLASH FLOODING ISSUES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME 
  IN SOME AREAS. 

* SEVERAL AREAS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA RECEIVED
  LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR
  ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS HIGH THROUGH SUNDAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

MNZ001>005-007-008-013>015-022-027-029-030-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-
024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054-231200-
/O.CON.KFGF.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-130623T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-
PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-EAST POLK-MAHNOMEN-WEST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-
EASTERN WALSH-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-
CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROOKSTON...EAST GRAND FORKS...
HALSTAD...MOORHEAD...HALLOCK...ROSEAU...WARREN...NEWFOLDEN...
THIEF RIVER FALLS...RED LAKE FALLS...FOSSTON...MAHNOMEN...
DETROIT LAKES...BRECKENRIDGE...FERGUS FALLS...ELBOW LAKE...
CANDO...LANGDON...CAVALIER...MADDOCK...LEEDS...DEVILS LAKE...
GRAFTON...NEW ROCKFORD...LAKOTA...GRAND FORKS...COOPERSTOWN...
FINLEY...MAYVILLE...VALLEY CITY...FARGO...LISBON...GWINNER...
WAHPETON...ADAMS
506 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING AREAS...IN MINNESOTA...CLAY...EAST MARSHALL...EAST 
  POLK...GRANT...KITTSON...MAHNOMEN...NORMAN...PENNINGTON...RED 
  LAKE...ROSEAU...WEST BECKER...WEST MARSHALL...WEST OTTER 
  TAIL...WEST POLK AND WILKIN. IN NORTH DAKOTA...BARNES... 
  BENSON...CASS...CAVALIER...EASTERN WALSH...EDDY...GRAND 
  FORKS...GRIGGS...NELSON...PEMBINA...RAMSEY...RANSOM... 
  RICHLAND...SARGENT...STEELE...TOWNER...TRAILL AND WESTERN 
  WALSH. 

* THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING

* PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST OF 
  THE WEEKEND. THE RAIN WILL NOT BE CONTINUOUS...BUT SOME 
  LOCATIONS COULD SEE OVER 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. THIS 
  COULD CREATE FLASH FLOODING ISSUES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME 
  IN SOME AREAS. 

* SEVERAL AREAS OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST
  CENTRAL MINNESOTA RECEIVED LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER THE PAST
  24 HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS HIGH
  THROUGH SUNDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

HOPPES

822 
WGUS63 KFGF 220927
FFAFGF

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
427 AM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...

.SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. AREAS
THAT HAVE RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IN
THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY HAVE THE HIGHEST THREAT OF SEEING
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AND ANY THUNDERSTORM MAY PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
OVER ONE AREA FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD.


MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-231200-
/O.CAN.KFGF.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-130623T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KFGF.FF.A.0003.130623T0000Z-130623T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-
GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-
WESTERN WALSH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROOKSTON...EAST GRAND FORKS...
HALSTAD...MOORHEAD...HALLOCK...ROSEAU...BAUDETTE...WARREN...
NEWFOLDEN...RED LAKE...THIEF RIVER FALLS...RED LAKE FALLS...
FOSSTON...BAGLEY...BEMIDJI...MAHNOMEN...LAKE ITASCA...
PARK RAPIDS...DETROIT LAKES...WOLF LAKE...BRECKENRIDGE...
FERGUS FALLS...NEW YORK MILLS...WADENA...ELBOW LAKE...CANDO...
LANGDON...CAVALIER...MADDOCK...LEEDS...DEVILS LAKE...GRAFTON...
NEW ROCKFORD...LAKOTA...GRAND FORKS...COOPERSTOWN...FINLEY...
MAYVILLE...VALLEY CITY...FARGO...LISBON...GWINNER...WAHPETON...
ADAMS
427 AM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA...
   INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN MINNESOTA...CLAY...EAST 
  BECKER...EAST MARSHALL...EAST OTTER TAIL...EAST POLK...GRANT...
   HUBBARD...KITTSON...LAKE OF THE WOODS...MAHNOMEN...NORMAN... 
  NORTH BELTRAMI...NORTH CLEARWATER...PENNINGTON...RED LAKE... 
  ROSEAU...SOUTH BELTRAMI...SOUTH CLEARWATER...WADENA...WEST 
  BECKER...WEST MARSHALL...WEST OTTER TAIL...WEST POLK AND 
  WILKIN. IN NORTH DAKOTA...BARNES...BENSON...CASS...CAVALIER... 
  EASTERN WALSH...EDDY...GRAND FORKS...GRIGGS...NELSON... 
  PEMBINA...RAMSEY...RANSOM...RICHLAND...SARGENT...STEELE... 
  TOWNER...TRAILL AND WESTERN WALSH. 

* FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING

* PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST OF THE
  AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE RAIN WILL NOT BE
  CONTINUOUS...BUT SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE OVER 2 INCHES PER HOUR
  AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD CREATE FLASH FLOODING ISSUES IN A
  SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IN SOME AREAS.

* SEVERAL AREAS OVER THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO WEST
  CENTRAL MINNESOTA HAVE RECEIVED LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER THE
  PAST 48 HOURS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN
  TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN THESE AREAS.

&&

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

DK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1257 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

MADE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AS THE RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST HAS
EXITED THE AREA AND MORE STORMS HAVE BEEN HEADING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. WITH CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION AS THE
AFTERNOON WEARS ON WILL KEEP THE TREND OF INCREASING POPS INTO THE
80 PERCENT AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE HAVE BEEN
REPORTS OF NEARLY 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR FROM THE
STORMS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. WITH THE RAIN LAST NIGHT AND
FFG VALUES LESS THAN 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FROM THE
RED RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD...WILL PUT OUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. PWAT VALUES STAY HIGH AND THERE WILL BE
CONTINUED MINOR SHORTWAVES MOVING OUT AS THE UPPER LOW STAYS OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FAR EASTERN COUNTIES HAVE HIGHER FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF ANY WATCH FOR NOW. ALSO
TWEAKED TEMPS DOWN THIS AFTERNOON A BIT WITH CLOUD COVER KEEPING
TEMPS FROM CLIMBING QUITE AS FAST AS EXPECTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO
OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWARD TOWARDS VALLEY CITY. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN
SOME STORMS FIRING AROUND THE THIEF RIVER FALLS TO BEMIDJI AREAS.
BUMPED UP POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST.
THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE CENTRAL CWA THROUGH MID DAY BEFORE
MORE ACTIVITY MOVES IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LOWERED TEMPS JUST A
TAD FOR MORE PRECIP AND CLOUDS THAN EXPECTED...BUT THINK THERE
SHOULD STILL GET ENOUGH HEATING TO GET INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S WITH GOOD INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE
WITH SEVERE MENTION INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL
MONITOR PREDICTED QPF AMOUNTS GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS OVER
THE SOUTHERN CWA AND IF WE NEED ANY FLOOD WATCH PRODUCTS LATER ON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING. TWEAKED POPS AND WX
ACCORDING TO CURRENT CONDITIONS AND LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE FOR THE
MORNING HOURS. PORTIONS OF SARGENT AND RANSOM COUNTY LIKELY
RECEIVED UP TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN...AND MAJOR FLOODING ISSUES ARE
BEING REPORTED. REPORTS ARE JUST COMING INTO THE OFFICE...AND
THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF UNKNOWNS AT THIS POINT. THE SEVERE THREAT
FOR THE MORNING HOURS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FA...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A SEVERE BOW JUST SOUTH OF THE FA THAT WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR.

ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE TO THE NORTH. IT MAY CLIP OUR NORTHWESTERN FA...AND WILL
MONITOR. THIS ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY NOT SEVERE.

THE SEVERE THREAT IS STILL ON TRACK FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN ACTIVITY
TODAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW HEATING AND MOISTURE RETURN...LEADING TO
AN ELEVATED SEVERE THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE THUNDER AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA
(AND BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN FA) WHERE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES AN UPPER WAVE AND THE RAP INDICATES 30-40 KNOT 850MB JET
INDUCED BY THIS UPPER WAVE. ANTICIPATE THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATE WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE WAVE. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS VERY LOW CONSIDERING WEAK
INSTABILITY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS AROUND
1.5 INCHES AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS.

ANTICIPATE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY DURING THE MID-DAY HOURS WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME HEATING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION...WITH MLCAPE
VALUES AOA 2000 J/KG SOME AREAS. FORCING FOR REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD
COME WITH A POSSIBLE MCV FROM ACTIVITY TO THE WEST (ACROSS
NORTHERN MONTANA) AS WELL AS AN UPPER WAVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THAT
SOME MODEL INDICATE. PREFER TO FOLLOW THE ECMWF FOR DEWPOINT
VALUES CONSIDERING LACK OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATION DUE TO LATE CROPS
THIS YEAR. THIS SOLUTION WOULD HAVE MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG INTO SE
NORTH DAKOTA BY 21Z...WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH
AND EAST (AND THE INSTABILITY AXIS INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA). MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THUNDER INITIATES ALONG THE
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY/DRY LINE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND
EVENTUALLY BECOMES SOME SORT OF MCS THAT BUILDS INTO THE HIGHER
STABILITY (WHICH MOST LIKELY WILL BE TO THE SOUTH). THE MAIN
THREATS WILL LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL AND ESPECIALLY WIND GUSTS. A
TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY INITIALLY. OTHER
MODELS ARE MORE ROBUST WITH DEWPOINTS VALUES (INTO THE LOW/MID
70S...AND WELL NORTH INTO THE FA)...WHICH LIKELY ACCOUNTS FOR THEM
WANTING TO MOVE THE MCS TO THE EAST INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF WHICH MOVES THIS FEATURE INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. HEAVY RAIN ALSO A THREAT WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.5
INCHES. NOT SURE EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT...BUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FA WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...REGION WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL HINGE ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVES
EJECTING FROM THE WESTERN TROUGH. FOLLOWING THE ECMWF FOR
TIMING...KEPT THE LIKELY POPS FOR FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...AND AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERE STORMS AGAIN A
POSSIBILITY...AND DEPENDENT ON INSTABILITY VALUES. THE SOUTHERN FA
APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS. HEAVY RAIN ALSO
A POSSIBILITY...AND FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER FLOOD/FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS TODAY.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH RE-ESTABLISHES FARTHER WEST
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
CENTRAL US BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR
TIMING WISE AT 84 HOURS BUT THE ECMWF BECOMES THE FASTER SOLUTION
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS.

PRECIPITATION IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH TODAYS RUNS AND WILL BE SUED.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE MOST PART
TODAY...HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND LAST WELL INTO THE NIGHT. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE SOUTHEAST BUT RAPID CHANGES IN DIRECTION DUE TO TSTMS AND/OR
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH STORMS NEAR THE
AIRFIELDS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR MNZ001>005-007-008-
     013>015-022-027-029-030-040.

&&

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...SPEICHER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
500 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-211200-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-
GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-
WESTERN WALSH-
500 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING. SOME
LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A LARGE COMPLEX IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...AND A COUPLE TORNADOES ARE ANTICIPATED. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...AND AGAIN LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE AND MAY CAUSE FLOODING ISSUES DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OCCUR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
851 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 AM     HEAVY RAIN       HANKINSON               46.07N 96.89W
06/20/2013  M3.30 INCH       RICHLAND           ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

0838 AM     HEAVY RAIN       FORMAN                  46.11N 97.64W
06/20/2013  M1.88 INCH       SARGENT            ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

0838 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 S FORMAN              46.09N 97.64W
06/20/2013  M2.05 INCH       SARGENT            ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

HOPKINS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
945 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 AM     FLASH FLOOD      8 W GWINNER             46.22N 97.83W
06/20/2013                   SARGENT            ND   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            HWY 13 WASHED OUT 8 MILES WEST OF GWINNER...TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

0515 AM     FLASH FLOOD      GWINNER                 46.22N 97.66W
06/20/2013                   SARGENT            ND   PUBLIC

            FACEBOOK POST VIA MEDIA PARTNER...BOBCAT PLANT INUNDATED
            AND CLOSED WITH FLOOD WATERS...MANY BASEMENTS FLOODED.

0515 AM     FLASH FLOOD      6 N GWINNER             46.31N 97.66W
06/20/2013                   RANSOM             ND   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            ND HWY 32 CLOSED BETWEEN GWINNER AND LISBON AT DEAD COLT
            CREEK...TIME ESTIMATED BASED OFF OF RADAR.

0815 AM     HEAVY RAIN       HANKINSON               46.07N 96.89W
06/20/2013  M3.30 INCH       RICHLAND           ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

0838 AM     HEAVY RAIN       FORMAN                  46.11N 97.64W
06/20/2013  M1.88 INCH       SARGENT            ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

0838 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 S FORMAN              46.09N 97.64W
06/20/2013  M2.05 INCH       SARGENT            ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

HOPKINS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1019 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 AM     HEAVY RAIN       LISBON                  46.44N 97.68W
06/20/2013  E5.00 INCH       RANSOM             ND   NEWSPAPER

0845 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MILNOR                  46.26N 97.46W
06/20/2013  E6.00 INCH       SARGENT            ND   NEWSPAPER

0845 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MCLEOD                  46.39N 97.30W
06/20/2013  E2.30 INCH       RANSOM             ND   NEWSPAPER

&&

HOPKINS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1101 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 AM     HAIL             1 SW FILLMORE           48.17N 99.82W
06/20/2013  E1.00 INCH       BENSON             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED HAIL AROUND QUARTER SIZED AND 50 MPH WINDS.

&&

JAM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1116 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

NDZ024-026-028-029-201700-
EDDY ND-GRIGGS ND-NELSON ND-STEELE ND-
1116 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN STEELE...SOUTHERN
NELSON...NORTHERN GRIGGS AND EASTERN EDDY COUNTIES UNTIL NOON CDT...

AT 1111 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MCVILLE...OR 37 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF DEVILS LAKE...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS EXPECTED WITH THE STORM.

THE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
PEKIN AROUND 1125 AM CDT.
MCVILLE AROUND 1135 AM CDT.
KLOTEN AROUND 1140 AM CDT.
ANETA AROUND 1145 AM CDT.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IF THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND BECOME
SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4775 9857 4799 9789 4767 9788 4767 9770
      4749 9834
TIME...MOT...LOC 1616Z 244DEG 25KT 4770 9834

PJS/JAM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1228 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

NDZ014-015-024-026-028-054-201830-
BENSON ND-EDDY ND-GRIGGS ND-NELSON ND-RAMSEY ND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY
ND-
1228 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN WALSH...SOUTHERN
RAMSEY...NELSON...EXTREME NORTHEASTERN GRIGGS...NORTHEASTERN EDDY AND
SOUTHEASTERN BENSON COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM CDT...

AT 1225 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A THUNDERSTORM 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAKOTA...OR 23 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF DEVILS LAKE...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.

THE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
TOLNA AROUND 1235 PM CDT.
STUMP LAKE AND PEKIN AROUND 1240 PM CDT.
MCVILLE AND LAKOTA AROUND 1250 PM CDT.
KLOTEN AROUND 1255 PM CDT.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IF THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND BECOME
SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 4826 9799 4793 9791 4767 9788 4768 9872
      4787 9879
TIME...MOT...LOC 1727Z 250DEG 33KT 4784 9857

JM/JK