River Flood Warning 60, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1243 PM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

CURRENT VIS SHOWING WESTERN ZONES BEGINNING TO HAVE MID/HIGH CLOUD
ADVECT IN FROM WEST WITH VALLEY ON EAST MOSTLY CLEAR. WHEN
COMPARING GFS...NAM...AND 00Z ECMWF...ALL THREE FOCUS THE BEST SFC
BASED CAPES OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WITH NORTH DAKOTA GENERALLY IN THE
1K TO 3K J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER...NAM IS THE ONLY ONE BRINGING HIGHER
CAPES TO THE NORTHWEST MINNESOTA REGION...WHERE CLEAR SKIES REMAIN
AND DEW POINTS ARE CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S. WILL NEED TO WATCH
THIS AREA FOR CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTN. OVERALL FOR POPS THROUGH
EVENT MAINTAINING ECMWF-FLAVORED CONTINUITY UNTIL 12Z RUN COMES IN
AND CAN COMPARE TO NAM/GFS FOR SAT AND SUN. HAVE MADE SOME POP
ADJUSTMENTS BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH WITH ANY MODEL TO INCLUDE
LIKELY BREAKS IN ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...SO IN GENERALLY
PLAN ON KEEPING CHANCE POPS AT A MINIMUM THROUGH THE WKND...AGAIN
PENDING 12Z ECMWF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FORECAST
WILL EJECT A SHORT WAVE ACROSS ND/SOUTHERN MAN LATE SUN NIGHT WHILE
ORIGINAL LOW REMAINS OVER ALTA. UPPER AIR BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE
THEREAFTER AS SHORT WAVES MOVE IN FROM THE WEST COAST. WATER VAPOR
LOOP INDICATED A SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK OVER WESTERN MN.

MODELS PLACE MOST UNSTABLE AIR FOR TOMORROW NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN
RED RIVER VALLEY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH FRI
NIGHT. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF. MODEL CROSS SECTION INDICATES
DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR FRI NIGHT AND SO
WILL THE THREAT FOR WIND.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

ANOTHER SHORT FORECAST FOR SAT NIGHT AND PRECIPITATION WOULD BE MOST
LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.

WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHT MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OR TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA...HAVE EXPANDED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR EASTERN ZONES.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. TIMING OF SHORTWAVES
WITHIN THIS FLOW HARD TO DETERMINE...AND MODELS EACH HAVE THEIR OWN
IDEA. MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY...WITH INCREASING THUNDER CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 2K FT
RANGE WITH CI BLOWOFF FROM CONVECTION ACROSS SW ND AND SD. EXPECT
VFR CONDS THRU THE AFTN AND EVENING WITH PERIODS OF MVFR TONIGHT
DURING TSTMS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NE EXCEPT FOR ELY AT KBJI WITH
ALL SITES BECOMING SE AFTER 03Z SAT. CONVECTION SHUD IMPACT THE FAR
SRN VALLEY THIS EVENING WITH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THAT WILL
AFFECT ALL SITES AFTER 05Z. MOST PRECIP SHOULD BE EAST OF BJI LATER
SAT MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL STRUCK AGAIN LAST NIGHT...WITH
SEVERAL LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR SEEING 2 TO 5
INCHES OF RAINFALL DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS.  FLASH FLOOD AND AREAL
FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA...AND THERE HAVE BEEN RIVERS ALONG SOME OF THE RIVERS
IN THAT AREA. SEVERAL RIVER POINTS HAVE FLOOD WATCHES AND ARE IN THE
PROCESS OF BEING UPDATED WITH INCOMING PRECIP REPORTS. WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AGAIN
OVER THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY...THE WATER SITUATION COULD BE
EXACERBATED.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
     022>024-027>032-040.

&&

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...HOPPES/TG
AVIATION...FRAZIER
HYDROLOGY...JR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
700 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-221200-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-
GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-
WESTERN WALSH-
700 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER ALL OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTH
WEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY
AFTER 4 PM CDT. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING HAIL AND A TORNADO. ALSO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED.

AN AREA OF MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND BRING UNSTABLE AIR
NORTHWARD AND PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ROUGHLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM TURTLE RIVER TO FOSSTON MINNESOTA TO
VALLEY CITY NORTH DAKOTA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE SOME LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND
PRODUCE THE SEVERE WEATHER.

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ROUGHLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KEELIHER TO SABIN MINNESOTA TO HANKINSON
NORTH DAKOTA. THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE SOME LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING AND SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND
PRODUCE THE SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

HOPPES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1050 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     HAIL             10 N BATTLE LAKE        46.43N 95.72W
06/20/2013  E1.00 INCH       OTTER TAIL         MN   PUBLIC

            PEA TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL AT MOLLS BERRY FARM

&&

JKAISER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1127 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DAVENPORT               46.71N 97.07W
06/20/2013                   CASS               ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE DOWN AT FARMSTEAD WITH LOTS OF SMALLER BRANCHES
            DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

JAM